Heating Lowcountry won't see region's moderation (Actual title)

The following article was in my newspaper this morning, regarding the changes in weather that are already affecting the "Lowcountry" of South Carolina (For those of you not familiar with the term, the Lowcountry is the coastal region of both South Carolina and Georgia).

The Post and Courier

I know that Global Warming (or Climate Change) is a controversial subject; but regardless of whether it's mankind's doing or Earth's natural cycle, my little corner of the world is seeing changes. October 2015 we were socked with a 1000 year flood. October 2016 saw Hurricane Matthew - the first major hurricane to hit us since 1989 (which is GOOD, but our luck ran out). This past July and August both were the all-time warmest months since the National Weather Service has recorded since they started keeping in 1938. In fact, according to the article:

An analysis by The Post and Courier of historic record highs and lows also suggests the region is trending warmer. Of the 10 warmest months on record since 1938, five have occurred in the past decade, among eight since 1990. For the coldest months, only one has occurred in the past decade, among only two since 1990, based on National Weather Service, Charleston data.

This article's focus, however, is NOT to rehash the extremes. There is a new study from NOAA and Princeton University that focuses on the changes in MILD weather. That is, the decreasing number of days we have between 64 and 86 degrees Fahrenheit (17.7 and 30 C). Right now Charleston, SC sees about 94 "mild" days. According to the lead author of the study, Karin van der Wiel, that number will decrease. By 2035, we'll have 9 less. This change in temperature and rainfall are already changing wildlife migration, fishing, and plant and animal ranges. On a personal note, we've seen more armadillos in recent years than 30-40 years ago. I say "more", but according to people born here Charleston didn't have any.

I love living here in the Lowcountry, but the heat can be unbearable. I always thought that the difference between how we handle the heat in the modern era and a couple of centuries (or even 80 years) ago was the invention of air conditioning. We got soft, lol! They seemed to handle it so much better, even in hoop skirts and formal suits. We're just getting less and less nice days.

a reply to: Lolliek

October 2015 we were socked with a 1000 year flood.

Do you understand what a 1 in 1000 storm event is?
This will help.

1 in 1000 year weather events

"Commonly, people interpret the 100-year flood definition to mean ‘once every 100 years,’” according to the agency. “This is wrong. You could experience a 100-year flood two times in the same year, two years in a row or four times over the course of 100 years. You could also not experience a 100-year flood over the course of 200 or more years.”

October 2016 saw Hurricane Matthew - the first major hurricane to hit us since 1989.

Thats a long time between Hurricanes, they are not becoming more common.

a reply to: Lolliek

So no hurricanes since1989 is bad?

a reply to: D8Tee

Yes. But that's what everyone here calls it. All I know is that we (my family) had no way of crossing over the Ashley and Cooper rivers. My younger kids were out of school for a week. People were evacuated if they were within a mile of the Edisto River. It could've been called the 10 year flood as far as I'm concerned. It was devistating.

Downtown Charleston floods every time it rains for any length of time, and it's worse (higher) during high tides. It wasn't that common years ago. Granted some of that is because of the increase in hardscapes, but the water just has nowhere to gp.


Sigh. It IS a good thing about the stretch between hurricanes. They avoid us like the plague. Usually they go to the Florida coast or the Outer Banks. My point was 2 natural disasters almost exactly one year apart. If I take my commentary out, will you at least read the dang article?!

It's quite simple really. You shouldn't be surprised at all. Why do you think it's called the low country? It's the same down the Mississippi only they try to alleviate it by building levees. You are on an ancient flood plain, what do you expect?
We are about to have the same thing in the UK. Ok it's a smaller country but the problem is still the same.
Let me ask you a question. When was the last time your rivers were dredged, not for navigation, like the Mississippi, but to deepen the whole channel to take away storm water? I am 67 years old and it has never happened in my lifetime. Yet they build more house, which as you stated increases the hard standing and taking away the soak away effect and in the UK they are building more and more on flood plains. So when these new house get flooded on a regular basis, because they have never updated the water disposal problem, you will get people like you saying "it's got to be AGW or strangely abnormal weather".
Over all the Earths weather is never, ever been predictable. All you have to look on is the regular weather forecasts from the people who are supposed to know just to see how inaccurate they are.

I've been living here in SC for a very long time, and not much has changed climate wise.

We go through cycles: Mild summer, hot summer, mild winter, cold winter, dry summer, wet summer, dry winter, wet winter, and a combo of of some of that.

That's what happens when you live in the southeastern US, in an area called Sub-Tropical.

We have a constant battle of cold air sweeping down from the north, and really warm humid air coming up from the Gulf of Mexico. Depending on what the Jet Stream is doing will depend on what we feel here in SC, and I've seen it do some crazy things over the last 30 years or so.

Not having hurricanes hitting us is a good thing, but we don't miss them all, we just don't get direct hits all the time, which after my ride through Hugo back in 1989 when I was stationed in Charleston is a GOOD thing. But we still have a lot of them (and tropical storms) move over us and dump rain, either because they came up from the Gulf or rode up the coast from eastern Florida.

We've had summers here with 100 plus temps and 60 percent humidity (killing weather), and summers where temps decided to never really get above 90. Winters where you could wear shorts on New Years day, and winters where my damn pipes froze on that same day. It's a roller coaster.

Back in 2004 we had a major ice storm move through SC, people with out power for almost a week. Was cold and miserable. Then people said with AGW it would be a thing of the past.

Then ten years later in 2014:



I went 6 days without power. Thing of the past.....right:



Of course you're down in the Low Country, I'm up here in the Sand Belt, CSRA or Midlands. Things will be different. However I do remember Christmas Day 1989, we had like 6 inches of snow in Charleston, but there was none up here.

I do believe in Climate Change, but I also know when weather is just weather. And seasons here in the South have always been a roller coaster ride.

a reply to: Lolliek

We all must educate ourselves and adapt to the changing weather. Your EPA has some suggestions for you -

www3.epa.gov...