The 2016 US Presidential Election odds

In this thread I'll try to let you updated on the 2016 US Presidential Election odds.
These numbers are subjective as the markets use to be but they are telling. Bookies are following the Betfair exchange. There is almost 118 million EUR mathed as I'm typing.
Betfair
On Oct 28 I got 5,70 on Trump and it went down to 3,50 last week. That's what I expected. It was obviously a good time to sell (or partly sell) and have a sure profit. That's probably what most people did and are doing because it's 4,70 -> 4,60 again. These people don't want to take the risk with the result even when they had such a value.
Let me know your thoughts. Is it following reality or it's rather fifty-fifty and still a great time to buy?

That's all Gamblerese. Do you have an English translation?

originally posted by: PapagiorgioCZ
In this thread I'll try to let you updated on the 2016 US Presidential Election odds.
These numbers are subjective as the markets use to be but they are telling. Bookies are following the Betfair exchange. There is almost 118 million EUR mathed as I'm typing.
Betfair
On Oct 28 I got 5,70 on Trump and it went down to 3,50 last week. That's what I expected. It was obviously a good time to sell (or partly sell) and have a sure profit. That's probably what most people did and are doing because it's 4,70 -> 4,60 again. These people don't want to take the risk with the result even when they had such a value.
Let me know your thoughts. Is it following reality or it's rather fifty-fifty and still a great time to buy?

I think everyone would be completely shocked if he really did pull it off. Even Trump supporters like myself. The median of all the polls give him about a mid 30% chance of pulling off the upset. Does not look good for him but you never know. There are some real X factors in it. One, black voters are not showing up early like they did with Obama. Then legal Hispanics, a good chunk of them don't like illegals. They paid their dues to get in so they are somewhat angry about amnesty. It feels a lot like Brexit to me. I thought there was no way that was going to happen. I still can't believe it to be honest.

a reply to: LifeMode

Keep the faith! Ronald Reagan won the 1980 election in a landslide despite trailing as much as 8% behind Jimmy Carter in some October polls.

OP, could you translate those numbers for people who do not know much about gambling?

He just finally pulled ahead in the most reliable poll:


www.investors.com...

a reply to: IgnoranceIsntBlisss

Have a converter. I find the fractional odds useless. How can anyone use it is beyond my current understanding.
oddsconverter.co.uk...

a reply to: PapagiorgioCZ

I'm basically asking who they're betting on. I dont gamble, do 'odds', follow sports, watch tv, etc, and I have no clue what to make of your OP.

a reply to: FauxMulder

Decimal odds are user friendly. 4,60 means that if you bet $100 you'll get 460 (360 is the profit)
You need a calculator to use the American odds which is in this case 18/5 (to get the number 3,6)

a reply to: IgnoranceIsntBlisss

That's what I'm talking about. It looks rather 50/50 between those two. Even the odd 3 would have a value.

The problem with charting polls at this late date is so many millions of votes have already been cast. An estimated 70% of the total voting electorate (based on how many people usually vote, I believe) has been cast in Florida already.

Polls may not be accurate at this time because of that. So who knows?

Anything could happen, including a rush of Latino voters making up for lost enthusiasm for Clinton in key battleground states. Or a bunch more Trump supporters could come out of the woodwork and vote that don't normally participate in elections. So ???

The popular vote polling means nothing in regards to who will be elected. It's all about state by state strategy and ground game at this point.

AB

I don't gamble...

Everyone I know who gambles always loses...

So why would I care how a bunch of losers opinions are trending?

Not being rude, just simply curious why I would take advice from a group of people who throw away money when the house tells them the house always wins..

-Chris

I got a special price last week at 9 to 1 for trump.
A join up special....so come on Trump daddy needs a new quiver.

It's a good bet to place. Right at 50/50. What was the Brexit numbers on betting? The situations feel very similar.

originally posted by: IgnoranceIsntBlisss
That's all Gamblerese. Do you have an English translation?

From our side of the Pond...

Casino.org

a reply to: IgnoranceIsntBlisss

Actually that poll has Clinton ahead by a point still. Misinfo agent I see. Another liar.

originally posted by: Christosterone
I don't gamble...

Everyone I know who gambles always loses...

So why would I care how a bunch of losers opinions are trending?

Not being rude, just simply curious why I would take advice from a group of people who throw away money when the house tells them the house always wins..

-Chris

I don't even look at Texas holdem as gambling anymore. I play the odds, most people let their ego and spirit of competition determine their style of play. Chumps....

But I like the odds on Donald...but I still hope he loses.

a reply to: Christosterone
a reply to: IgnoranceIsntBlisss

Once you can do the math and you are into the industry... you don't care who wins and the houses always lose. (but shhh!)
This case is more about the trading and value betting however. What I'm looking for now is the fresh numbers

a reply to: PapagiorgioCZ

I went for the trifecta at 47:1, $100, Trump 48, Clinton 39, Johnson 9. Lol

Cheers - Dave

a reply to: olaru12

Starred.
But I like the odds on Donald...but I still hope he wins.

UPDATE: Still many people trying to get cashback. (check the sume in blue in the link I posted) Not a good time to buy Trump. It will easily rise to 5 today. Unless there's some announcement. I'm not sure how the election process goes from now. I mean polls and counts release times etc.