Brexit Vote...What happens now and Article 50

So its official, we Brits have voted to take back our Sovereignty and already as anticipated the shockwaves are flowing tsunami like over Europe.
So when how and what happens next? The way forward is unclear as no-one has ever left the EU before and the flimsy Article 50 has never been triggered. This is unknown territory

Initially, as has happened this morning, the EU Parliament will call a meeting to discuss Article 50 The Treaty Of Lisbon which are the very brief rules for leaving the EU. The meeting will discuss Article 50 and attempt to agree a common position between MEP's and the best way forward for a clean break. According to the Telegraph Central Bankers from Japan & Switzerland are ready to step in to stabilise the economy and provide added liquidity. Worryingly with regard to Article 50 any member country has the right to veto negotiations for the exit and could thus carry negotiations on for years to come. It should also be noted that Article 50 does not allow for a country to "back out" of leaving and should the UK want to re-enter the EU they would have to go through the very same process as any other country applying. This is NOT a quick wave bye bye

There will be two teams of negotiators set up from the UK & EU to discuss terms of exit and future trade agreements with the UK negotiating continued access to the EU single market. However as the Conservative party themselves are deeply divided and Cameron's future uncertain to say the least, such negotiations could be a long way in the future which means triggering Article 50 which sets a 2 yr deadline for leaving, could have to be put on hold leaving the UK in no-man's land for some time.

On the part of the EU Parliament, budgets will now have to be re assessed without the UK's large contributions which could possibly mean larger contributions being required from other member states, which in itself could pose a threat to the EU stability issue should other countries kick back and want to leave too. Any settlement reached by the UK has to be ratified by all member states & the EU Parliament and in the meantime, it is most likely that the UK will continue to trade under the World Trade Organisation rules with all free trade agreements being null & void, and resulting in higher export tariffs.

Another difficulty will be that the UK will have to assess the status of the current 2million or so EU workers in Britain and pray that whatever decision they make will not affect the 2million workers currently working and living in EU states. It is suspected that some EU countries may want retaliation against the UK and that they may want to "punish" the UK in an effort to prevent other states from leaving by vetoing any deals or simply offering the worst of deals.

Article 50 Explained
What happens now?

We're in for a rocky ride folks and various unknowns coupled with much media fear mongering but we are a resilient bunch and as can be seen from the voting, we don't take kindly to being dictated to

a reply to: PhyllidaDavenport

It seems that the main sticking point for most Brits is the immigration issue. I'd like to know your view on that?

Good for you UK. No-one dictating what you can and can't do anymore. Australians will always stand by you and support you in whatever you do.

originally posted by: PhyllidaDavenport
So its official, we Brits have voted to take back our The way forward is unclear as no-one has ever left the EU before

Er, Greenland left the EU.

However, Greenland is not the UK - the fifth largest economy.

I think this will be case of "make it up as you go along". It is doubtful that the EU will cut of its nose to spite its face (as the saying goes), but you never know with the French in the room.

This is now a multi-faceted problem. It will certainly be interesting. I foresee mayhem and significant political change. Labour MPs (for example) are completely out of touch with their natural constituency. Scotland will blame it all on the Tories and push for independence. The EU will seek to prevent wider break-up. The bankers will seek to make money out of it all.

Real worry. Real opportunity. Real chance for the mother of cock-ups.

a reply to: PhyllidaDavenport

Well done!

I love you guys and well done is all I have to say!

My personal views on immigration is that open borders is wrong and could never work given the current climate. Initially when the open borders policy and freedom of movement for work was initiated, it was for those countries who had shortages of certain skilled workers. A good idea in theory, however, what we have seen happen over the last 10yrs or more is migrants without skills or jobs to go to, heading for whichever the best countries were for benefits and Government handouts, hence the reason for the refusal by some migrants to leave the train at Denmark last year and demanding they be taken to Germany where the benefits were better.

If I wish to emigrate to Canada for example, I have to prove myself worthy and that I would not be a burden on the State and usually have a job to go to that could not be filled by a Canadian. There was a rigorous process to go through to be accepted. The EU with their policies decided that people should be able to move around Europe as they pleased unhindered regardless of financial or employment status. Countries were forced to accept this "freedom" and as a result many of the poorer EU countries have been left with very few skilled workers as they have moved to bigger & better horizons elsewhere. These shortages have a knock on effect on the economy of those countries which then means they are forced to borrow from the likes of Germany

Its a fine line and one that is quite complicated

a reply to: paraphi

Greenland did NOT leave the EU....they left the EEC

I think we've been fooled into supporting borisJohnson and Nigel farageselection campaignfor the past campaign for the last 4 months to ensure more cuts and an nhs sell off

a reply to: PhyllidaDavenport

I am really proud of my British brothers and sisters today.

I can't imagine how angry I would be having crap laws imposed on me by a bunch of bureaucrats in Brussels. Good on you for getting it done!

This is worth a read...

(Source: Reuters TV / Reuters)


A really crucial detail about the upcoming EU referendum has gone virtually unmentioned and it is probably the most crucial detail: Parliament doesn't actually have to bring Britain out of the EU if the public votes for it.

That is because the result of June 23 referendum on Britain's EU membership is not legally binding. Instead, it is merely advisory, and, in theory, could be totally ignored by UK government.

(For more on this see Business Insider's intriguing interview with the University of Westminster's Dr Peter Catterall — This is why a Brexit will most likely not actually happen even if the public votes for it.)

This incredible detail is explained in a new blog post by Financial Times columnist and legal expert David Allen Green.

Green says that no legal provision was included in the EU referendum legislation that requires UK Parliament to act in accordance with the outcome of the referendum.

This is unlike the last referendum held across Britain, the Alternative Vote referendum held in 2011, where the outcome had a legal trigger and had to be acted on by the government of the time.

Instead, what will happen next if the public votes for a Brexit will be purely a matter of parliamentary politics.

The government could decide to put the matter to parliament and then hope to win the vote, Green says. In the scenario of Britain's EU membership being put to a Westminster vote, barring no dramatic change in allegiances, it is likely that MPs would vote to keep the country in the 28-nation bloc.

This is because the vast majority of the 650 MPs identify as Europhiles and would likely support a motion position to protect Britain's place in the EU.

Pro-EU MPs could even argue, ironically, that ignoring the public's will would be parliamentary sovereignty in practice — something that Leave campaigners argue has been conceded to Brussels.

Alternatively, ministers could attempt to negotiate an updated EU membership deal and put it to another referendum. Finally, the government could just choose to totally ignore the will of the public.

Allot of possibilities what will happen now but indeed it might be chaotic for the EU now, with the money, immigration, i dont know maybe even their warfare will get crazier. EU+US trying to punish Russia and hold em down so can EU hold their bloody faces up now, perhaps US will start even more active posturing in the EU now and will Brits ease up with Russia and start talking rather than bullying each other?

About EU, British in my understanding should have been the leader of the EU, they actually have some knowledge of sort of things i would imagine at least.. Perhaps there would have been totally different approach to unite than what it seems today, today EU is more like unity of big money ppl, to make more money, while same time obviously it worked backwards, so no unity but divide instead.

If EU gets even more weaker now then it is also problematic to Brits, in a way they only jump out of the burning boat but we all end up in the same waters.

What will Brits do about immigration now? I hope ppl of Britain will keep their cool heads and wont start violent attacking randomly towards different ppl. It is not their fault either they are in a bad situation, so i hope Brits can be smarter than that and figure out ways to deal things more correctly.

originally posted by: romilo
If EU gets even more weaker now then it is also problematic to Brits, in a way they only jump out of the burning boat but we all end up in the same waters.
.

The long term issue for the EU is that they will become inward looking. The UK was actually a significant player and influence in Europe. Without the UK, there is a risk Europe will drift aimlessly to French fickleness and German indecision.

The challenge for the UK is to keep influence in Europe.

originally posted by: paraphi

originally posted by: romilo
If EU gets even more weaker now then it is also problematic to Brits, in a way they only jump out of the burning boat but we all end up in the same waters.
.

The long term issue for the EU is that they will become inward looking. The UK was actually a significant player and influence in Europe. Without the UK, there is a risk Europe will drift aimlessly to French fickleness and German indecision.

The challenge for the UK is to keep influence in Europe.

Very good points, i would imagine some of the "top players" in EU are "sangry" sad+angry right now.
Wonder is will they take it as lesson to learn from or will they use it as excuse or something as ignorant.

a reply to: kuraijanai2013

Parliament doesn't actually have to bring Britain out of the EU if the public votes for it.

Can you imagine what happens next if they did?

However much the politicians waffle on and drag it out, I hope that the Rest Of Us start to carry on as if we're Out already.

I hope people will start to flout the silly rules and regulations that have blighted their lives. Stick two fingers up to the EU and start selling spuds in lbs instead of kilos.

As expected the next UK govt hasn't announced the invocation of article 50. The Eurolimbo predicted for the UK is materializing before our eyes. The EU and the UK will be stuck in an inconsistent limbo due to the inability of either parties to get any of their act together. UK oligarchs want to be part of the EU, but politicians can't ignore the referendum. Meanwhile the EU at this point is neither able to discuss another agreement like Cameron wanted, nor is it able to admit it's real intention of having the UK as a member state. The limbo will be long, painful and inconclusive.

originally posted by: Flanker86
As expected the next UK govt hasn't announced the invocation of article 50.

The next UK Government??? It's the very same UK government, with a few

posts being shuffled around.

The Eurolimbo predicted for the UK is materializing before our eyes.

Hardly ... the UK government has been on summer recess most of the time since

the referendum.

The EU and the UK will be stuck in an inconsistent limbo due to the inability of either parties to get any of their act together. UK oligarchs want to be part of the EU, but politicians can't ignore the referendum.

Whatever the politicians want The British people have spoken .... and

they want OUT.

Meanwhile the EU at this point is neither able to discuss another agreement like Cameron wanted, nor is it able to admit it's real intention of having the UK as a member state.

If they really wanted to keep the UK as a member state, they would have

negotiated and been more flexible, instead of bullying and using scare tactics. The

British dont like being subjugated, and the EU thought they had it all tied up in their

favor, and that the UK (their second largest financial contributor) didn't

have the bottle to go it alone!

The UK called their bluff .... and now other members are closing their

boarders and wanting their own referendums.

The limbo will be long, painful and inconclusive.

Who says