Clinton demolishes Trump in recent Florida poll.

a reply to: Metallicus

Right that makes sense. I'll bet I know more about American pikiticans than the majority of Americans. I don't spend my days watching reality television. I read about world events and politics daily because what America does impacts more than just America. I had family members that were sent to Afghanistan because of that administrations stupidity. At the time our prime minister was a big Bush lapdog ass kisser. Thankfully that has changed.

Now we're going to have a thread for every poll conducted in every state that compares Clinton to Trump? Who gives a chit what any individual state poll says...especially months in advance. Sheesh.

Is the bandwidth free and costs for site maintenance now virtually non-existant for AboveTopSecret.com I'm seeing more duplicate and mundane threads, along with posters not following the rules when creating threads.

If we pay $$$, can an individual member personalize his/her ATS omit certain threads from being seen? (Like we do with Cable or Satellite TV.)

originally posted by: carewemust
Now we're going to have a thread for every poll conducted in every state that compares Clinton to Trump? Who gives a chit what any individual state poll says...especially months in advance. Sheesh.

Is the bandwidth free and costs for site maintenance now virtually non-existant for AboveTopSecret.com I'm seeing more duplicate and mundane threads, along with posters not following the rules when creating threads.

If we pay $$$, can an individual member personalize his/her ATS omit certain threads from being seen? (Like we do with Cable or Satellite TV.)

It basically has to do with the electoral college. The solid Trump states vs solid Clinton states and the numbers of electors. For Clinton she has enough that she needs only win one big battle ground state, Ohio, FL or Penn where as Trump must win almost all of them.

State polling becomes important becomes even more important when places like Georgia and Arizona once solid red states come into play. This is how they plan their campaigns and where to go and where to spend money. If you Trump you need secure your wavering red states and some how win most of the battle ground states where trail in all but 1. If your Clinton you need only hold your solid blue states and take one of the big battle ground states. So you can also target Trumps Red State flanks.

This is why the GOP is so desperate to stop Trump. At least with Cruz they carry the traditional red states and can hold the line on their losses. With Trump the DNC has a chance to make big moves right into the heart of the GOP.

And long term polling of states has a been more accurate at predicting elections than anything else. 2016 Electoral map crystal ball

a reply to: MrSpad


OK.. thanks for that thorough and thoughtful explanation, MrSpad. I suppose since ATS is utilized by people of all sophistications, every thread is important to someone. Also, I forget that many members can't see the future, so they enjoy the spin and suspense that these political threads deliver.

-cwm

I have always had a problem with the "solid" states, Yes they have held sway traditionally but this time I am seeing something strange with my observations of primary numbers, there are some traditionally blue states that had a higher voter turn out for Trump and the rest of the clown car when they are added all together. The higher Republican turn out versus the Anemic Democrat primary voter turn out seems to be an Anomaly to the Status Quo,

Other factors in play.

Bernie's Burn outs, the voters who got disenfranchised by the super delegate mess or think they were even if it may or may not be the truth.

Those influenced by the Talk Radio talking heads, They will be encouraged to vote for the final chosen candidate no matter who. (but listening to the big ones it seems they are just as happy with Trump as they are with Cruz, they may rebel if anyone else is put in)

The anomaly I mentioned above.

Trump being a Democrat in the GOP race does change things a quite bit if he gets the nod, Trump puts New England, New York and California into play, not a for sure lock.

The Obama wild card, if he chooses not to Help the Clintons out, when if the stuff hits the fan, due to how they have been toward him...(talk about a legacy the first president to deny a pardon to his side) This could foreshadow something strange like Webb or Hilary's vp pick getting the Nod, Which would only feed the Burners to vote Trump in protest.

The fear and unrest that will happen if Trump pulls the popular vote and it is given away else where by electoral collage, the backlash potential is the stuff of nightmares.

At least I can with a Clear mind, say I did not and will not vote for or against one of the MSM candidates, I am voting Ron White... That way if either Trump or Hillary get it I can Honestly say it was not who I voted for.

originally posted by: Metallicus

originally posted by: Joecanada11
a reply to: Metallicus

Oh I don't know. Invading a country on false information. Being complicit in a false flag operation that took over 3,000 American civilian lives. Those are a couple to start with.

Those things are conjecture not fact. Hilary has already admitted to using the email server. I know, I know it is all Bush's fault.

Still, nothing you said is fact.

ETA: Wait? Are you from Canada? That explains some things.

LOL. I got a good chuckle out of this one.

Joke aside.


Metallicus, Joecanada11 tends to base arguments on perception or feelings rather than facts. I called it out in another thread a little while back for making baseless statements and acting like the information was proven to the upmost logical standards.

Saying something is X because "I feel it", DOES NOT make it true.


Peace.

a reply to: muse7

Please color me more than skeptical.

I don't think I trust much in the political arena out of Florida.

All the worse if it involves the gritchy one.

Not like they check for voter id for these polls. (except the calls, and even then, if the person moved, they'll ask whoever is there to log the call).

My guess is that a HUGE percentage of the people who responded to pollsters aren't even registered.

It's why I put little faith in polls and statistics. It is ALL about WHO you polled, WHERE, and WHEN...and without knowing those variables, the results are simply to easy to manipulate to your desired outcome.

a reply to: muse7

Also here:
Insiders: Clinton would crush Trump in November

In three of the biggest swing states — Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida — Republicans were particularly downbeat about the prospect of a Trump-Clinton contest.

“There is positively no way for Trump to win in Pennsylvania,” said a Republican from that state.

“Trump cannot and will not carry Ohio,” a Republican from that state insisted. “He will do well in Appalachia and in the Mahoning Valley, but he will get killed in the rest of the state. The danger for the GOP is losing Rob Portman, which is a very real possibility under this matchup.”

Added a Florida Republican, who like all participants was granted anonymity in order to speak freely, “Trump is grinding the GOP to a stub. He couldn't find enough xenophobic, angry white Floridians to beat Hillary in Florida if he tried.”

www.politico.com...

Critical Thinking 101

Check out the statistics of the 604 people polled.
static.politico.com...

For one thing, that's a SUPER SMALL number to build a reliable poll.

For another, the majority of respondents were in pretty heavily Hispanic areas, even though most of those polled were white.

More women were sampled than men.

Less than a third was done over the phone (likely to registered voters), which means more than 2/3 were just man on the street (so no veriication of their intent or ability to vote).

Younger voters were more likely to vote Clinton, whereas with older voters, the numbers were very close. Typically, young voter turnout is FAR less than the older folks, especially with their patron saint Bernie out of the race.

Simply put, this is one highly suspicious BS poll.

a reply to: Metallicus

He always made a new law to make it legal. Take warrantless wire taping and warrantless detaining at checkpoints. Had to come up with the Patriot Act to circumvent existing laws.

originally posted by: Gazrok
Critical Thinking 101

Check out the statistics of the 604 people polled.
static.politico.com...

For one thing, that's a SUPER SMALL number to build a reliable poll.

More than just this poll show the same:

www.realclearpolitics.com...

For another, the majority of respondents were in pretty heavily Hispanic areas, even though most of those polled were white.

Welcome to Florida.

More women were sampled than men.

There are more women than men in the USA and Florida.

Less than a third was done over the phone (likely to registered voters), which means more than 2/3 were just man on the street (so no veriication of their intent or ability to vote).

Young people use cell phones and older people don't answer their phone. Nothing wrong with in-person surveys.

Younger voters were more likely to vote Clinton, whereas with older voters, the numbers were very close. Typically, young voter turnout is FAR less than the older folks, especially with their patron saint Bernie out of the race.

Not with Trump...check out those protesting his rallies. See a lot of older folks? Trump is like Pres. Obama campaigning as far as turning out the youth vote...just for the opposite reason.

Young people use cell phones and older people don't answer their phone. Nothing wrong with in-person surveys.

Except that you aren't just polling registered voters (so the number is meaningless). I mean, if you did this at my WalMart in FL, probably 80% of those would not be registered voters (I live in an agricultural city). Of course, you'd have a hard enough time finding those who speak English, hehe....

So, you can throw out 2/3 of this survey result.

Not with Trump...check out those protesting his rallies. See a lot of older folks?

Majority were either BLM members or rabid Bernie supporters. Has little bearing in a Trump vs. Clinton scenario (especially as with Bernie out, most will simply go back home to their mom's' house).

a reply to: muse7

2.3 Million people voted in the Florida GOP Primary

1.5 Million people voted in the Florida DNC Primary

Those are the real numbers that you should look at it, not a poll of 604 people... The election is 6 months away, I'm sure many polls will show what the media wants to create. They'll continually show Clinton winning, hoping the Republicans will just give up and not vote, it happens every election.

a reply to: efabian

Such as what exactly ?

If you think the government didn't know there were no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq then you are plain ignorant. Same if you think the Bush administration wasn't complicit in the 9/11 incident. Exactly what did you "call me out for"?

originally posted by: Joecanada11
a reply to: Metallicus

Oh I don't know. Invading a country on false information. Being complicit in a false flag operation that took over 3,000 American civilian lives. Those are a couple to start with.

Wow man, just wow.

Congress voted to go to War. Everything was legal.

Ask Obama about invading countries without getting congressional approval. Now THAT's an illegal war.

2.3 Million people voted in the Florida GOP Primary 1.5 Million people voted in the Florida DNC Primary

Pretty telling.

a reply to: jjkenobi

Congress voted based on false information that was given to them. There was no reason the US should have invaded Iraq. None. It was about money.

Trust me Obama should be tried as well but its not going to happen. All of these puppets will never be tried. TPTB are taking the money in from these conflicts.