Turkey closed the straits of Bosphorus - Russia gives a last chance/warning - Turkey reopens

a reply to: SurrenderingIsBack

Funny, I don't remember X saying that Turkey has closed the Bosporus. That misinformation came from somewhere else.

a reply to: DJW001

I am not Vlad Putin nor his speaker, therefore I cannot imagine what would do in his shoes. He cannot be predicted so easily, as the Western think tanks think they could, and run in comical situations to expect 70,000 out of millions Moscow citizens will bring the resignation of Vlad. Moreover, Russia is not ruled by one man only, although he is the strong man. The West underestimates also the mind potential of the ruling circle of Russia as collective intellectual force that works much better than let say the US administration does. Putin AND HIS COLLEAGUES (Lavrov, Shoigu, others) play with Western politicians as with chess. Sure Merkel is a good partner to deal in Minsk, if she speaks perfect Russian learned at the time DDR was socialist...The West just doesn't take it, or because they are not so stupid, may be they want the world to think so of them.

That being said, I did not approve as the best possible military op the Crimea op. Other scenarios did exist that would not put at risk the Russian forces should the Ukrainian army resort to use its full strength AT THAT TIME. It would be a disaster in Crimea, it would be a trap. Luckily for Russia, the Ukrainian troops there SURRENDERED.

Surely Turkey is a formidable force, one of the best non-nuclear armies in the world. Still it is not a world nuclear power, neither it has the special weapons the Russians have, such as S-400 mounted on warships. Everything could hit everything from those missile tubes. You can use S-300 for ground targets as well as with nuclear warhead.

I have to say, I like the Turkish nation, it has its major historical presence and contribution in the region and well beyond it (once the Ottoman empire bordered Italy and Vienna). Constantinople is known for some 600 years as Istanbul and preserved as one of the best cities in the world! Nothing Christian has been destroyed. How many conquerors could say the same of the civilizations they swallowed? (Think of the conquistadors for example). Turkey is not anti-christian country, it is multicultural and multi-religious nation that values all of that heritage. It could be an example of peaceful co-existence, the term coined at Helsinki peace act. A bridge between the Christian Europe and the Muslim Middle East.

The popes visited Hagia Sophia, the wonderful temple that preserved the flow of time in it. You should see the videos of Christian saints inside that were not touched for all those centuries.

Even if a country decides to run itself more fundamentally within the frames of the international law, as it seems to be the case with Turkey today, it would be still OK.

A war with Russia will mean the end of Turkey, no matter how big loses Russia will take. The straights are just one important piece of the cake. If Russia can't settle it conventionally, it will use nukes. So says the Russian doctrine. Once it will be done, and woe to the country(s) that will meet the Russian ire. In that row I can see nothing good for Poland either. Russia will resort to nukes sooner or later, exactly because of the troops numbers you presented. Russia can't win all wars conventionally, neither she can surrender all territories considered sphere of influence. There will be a red line and everyone knows that. Does it mean Russia is forced into the corner and provoked with the hope she will use the nukes FIRST?

Sure Russia can't throw all of her force on Turkey or the West front, and let Japan take Kurils or even Kamchatka. Others may take advantage of that moment as well.

Looking at a nuclear capable missile used in Syria, Putin said he hoped no need of those weapons to settle the conflict.

I don't think Russia will advance West unless there is a major war with America first. The viewpoint that I quoted remains a viewpoint of some Russian think tank. Should for example the US think tanks be taken as official policy, when they say Siberia should be divided into several pieces one of which to go to USA?

On contrary to that, I would say, should Moscow or the European part of Russia be ever nuked in any scenario, expect the worst of the worst. The Siberian bunker cities will be the fortresses of launching unrestricted missiles against the West and the West could do nothing to stop it. Is that the desired outcome described in sci fi such as Terminator? The thinking machines of Skynet launched the missiles against the only country that would respond, in order to kill the humans by that response...

Why not to call other sci fi into the scene so to have a peaceful transition into the new technological era beneficial for everyone, not only for several percents of the world population.

a reply to: 2012newstart

If conventional russian forces were competent putin would not need to threaten the use of nukes. Further he, and his supporters, seem to forget the fact the US and several other nations allied with the US have nukes also.

a reply to: 2012newstart

A war with Russia will mean the end of Turkey, no matter how big loses Russia will take. The straights are just one important piece of the cake. If Russia can't settle it conventionally, it will use nukes. So says the Russian doctrine. Once it will be done, and woe to the country(s) that will meet the Russian ire. In that row I can see nothing good for Poland either. Russia will resort to nukes sooner or later, exactly because of the troops numbers you presented. Russia can't win all wars conventionally, neither she can surrender all territories considered sphere of influence. There will be a red line and everyone knows that. Does it mean Russia is forced into the corner and provoked with the hope she will use the nukes FIRST?

What makes you think Turkey has not acquired nukes on its own, as insurance against a failure of NATO to act? Any use of nuclear weapons on Russia's part will result in the annhilation of Russia; surely the geniuses in the Kremlin realize this. The only ways that Russia can project power are through diplomacy or skulduggery. Erdogan called Putin's bluff. Putin has now dropped his support for Assad and is willing to let the opposition negotiate with the government. The rest is diplomacy.

a reply to: DJW001

You say that Turkey developed or acquired may be, nuclear weapons with which it intends to attack Russia? It would be suicidal precedent unknown in human history. Besides, S-300 and S-400 are designed to intercept missiles too.

As of Western own attack on Russia, the successful one would be the preemptive attack. But then you have the West to pose as aggressor and Russia as victim in its right to retaliate with the surviving missiles in secret deep Siberian locations. That will result in nuclear winter. As the shown newest submarine-torpedo that alone can decide the fate of the earth. Those are scenarios that few on earth will outlive them. Even if Russia is defeated...and I doubt it will. For a number of reasons one of which the vastness and wilderness of territory gives advance when it comes to survival deep underground. Obviously the world we live in, will change dramatically. In that scenario Russia is one of the few to survive with part of her population. Another one is China, may be some secret US bases will survive too.. But how much US population will survive? How much German population? French? Let alone of smaller countries. Those are questions to be asked BEFORE not AFTER the doom.

Disclosure is the only reasonable answer to prevent that from happening. Disclosure MUST happen before not after WW3. If the human race is destined to continue with unchanged genetic code.

a reply to: 2012newstart

Please point out where he stated Turkey would attack Russia.

He said should NATO fail to act and contrary to the lies putin tells NATO is a defensive only alliance. The only way NATO would be involved is if Putin is stupid enough to attack Turkey. Russia can play the nuke card all they want but they, and russian supporters (including those on ATS) need to get it through their heads russia is not the only nation with nukes and contrary to the delusions some people have fallout and radiation crosses borders.

If Russia starts a war with Turkey / NATO it wont survive it. Secondly Turkey would be within its rights to lawfully shut down the straights to Russian military vessels and depending on how stupid russia gets it could block commercial traffic under the UN Charter.

There is not a damn thing Russia can do except attack, at which point they lost.

Is this going anywhere? We know Russia is simply in no position to take on Turkey be at the military, political or economic level. We knew that Russia would have no real response to the Turkish shoot down because Russia has not real options that do not do itself far more harm. So what is the point of all this Russia nuking Turkey vice versa stuff? Russia has enough problems adding to Turkey to the mix is not going to happen.

What Russia needs to worry about is the only place ISIS is not in retreat and is instead doing attacking is with Assads forces who seem completely useless at this point and Russian support has proved to be of little help. They are going to have to do more to help Assad and soon.

a reply to: 2012newstart

You say that Turkey developed or acquired may be, nuclear weapons with which it intends to attack Russia? It would be suicidal precedent unknown in human history. Besides, S-300 and S-400 are designed to intercept missiles too.

You just don't get it; Turkey is not about to attack Russia. Russia's problem is that it cannot attack Turkey without either losing a conventional war or escalating to a nuclear war that Turkey might be able to engage in even without NATO's support.

Nothing happened like this, but a Russian cruiser with a soldier holding a rocket launcher + posing a military stance passed the Bosphorus which released lots of flags all over the Europe for the stress. Maybe the Greek took it as a chance to create some speculations.

a reply to: DJW001

Sorry I misunderstood you.

In anyway, both Turkey and Russia are in dangerous game that may well end up with today's Cold Peace shattered to pieces, with consequences far outreaching the continent. I don't agree with sayings of others, that Russia is incapable of launching a strike. Syria involvement speaks of the opposite. Or that Russia will be destroyed as result. The West is much more vulnerable, not having civil defense as vast as that of Russia.
Negotiation is the only way for the West to make that doesn't happen in first place.

Russian generals repeatedly spoke of new weapons systems, including such to be put in space, after the Georgian war. Here is a "leaked" photo of a new giant torpedo-submarine- robot.


Perimeter system en.wikipedia.org...(nuclear_war)#Current_use

In 2011, the commander of the Russian Strategic Missile Forces, Sergey Karakaev, in an interview with Komsomolskaya Pravda, confirmed the operational state of the Perimeter assessment and communication system.[17] The "combat readiness" of this system was again confirmed in November 2015 by the Rossiiskaya Gazeta,

I will reiterate that only a speedy move of the whole international community towards Disclosure process of already discovered and working technologies, with the purpose to make the life better for each country, and not to make the richest-richer, can postpone or cancel a worldwide conflict that seems otherwise inevitable. On top of climate change and other agendas.

a reply to: Xcathdra

I don't see NATO so much united on the Turkish downing of Russian jet en route to bomb terrorists of IS, not to bomb Bosporus.
The pilot of the jet was made hero of Russia post mortem, the body arrived with all honor. Russia won respect for not answering militarily, as Medvedev said it was considered as "casus belli" but decided not to be answered. The West and especially the hawks in USA don't understand that any such episode brings enormous influence of the Russian leaders worldwide. Putin was rated the man of the year by popular poll IN ISRAEL. Is that in the best interest of the US and its allies?

Many NATO countries realize it is not in their best interest to play the fool, in case WW3 is inevitable.

If a real war (conventional) breaks out between Turkey and Russia, perhaps NATO will start breaking apart, starting from Greece, plus German reluctance to aid militarily any common decision. Two world wars with Russia were enough for Germany.

Although theoretically possible, I don't expect a full scale first nuclear strike of USA on Russian vast territory, in case of conventional conflict with Turkey or in any other hot spot. Rather a slower escalation. Indeed, military doctrines of Cold War say otherwise, MAD envisioned 15 minutes hair triggered alert for missiles, but that is suicidal for any country that makes it first, because it will die second. Moreover, in that case the chances of Russia and China to survive portion of population are much greater than those of USA (and West).

The civilized era we pretend we are living in, requires to take account of the generations to come, of history books that will write centuries later who the aggressor were, and of course of saving as much population as possible in the hours before the first massive strikes. Therefore escalation is more likely, rather than surprise attack.

Escalation could happen from any hot spot. Syra-Turkey, Armenia-Turkey-Azerbaijan, Ukraine - Donbass - Crimea- Poland, less likely Japan - Kurils, North Korea- South Korea-Japan, or Iran-Saudi Arabia.

Someone may want to see Russia nuked overnight as thousand-fold "punishment" for involvement in any of these hot spots (as it is already involved in Syria), but the reality shows just the opposite. US moved jets out of 20 mile radius of any Russian jets at the start of the Syrian op, and now they have operational agreement on that. US carrier was moved out of the Persian gulf, now it is back. Seems US acts more careful than some of its allies, and pursues its strategic interest more than they do theirs. They still don't understand they will be sacrificed if WW3 is indeed in the near term plans.

Heroes of Russia

I just dont understand the double standard of the Western/US hawks. When it comes to their soldiers, every man counts. We saw the last incident with Iran how swiftly secretary Kerry and even Obama intervened for the fast release.

When it comes to other countries who lose their men in honorable fight, it is not the same attitude. Russia is not a third world country or regime that Washington labels as axis of evil or whatever. Where go the latest reassurances of Washington that Russia is not an enemy and should nto perceive USA as such?

Russia is a great power and it should be respected as such. It was respected during the Soviet time.

The pilot downed and cowardly killed, is granted the highest degree of honor, the star of the hero of the RUssian Federation, along with those who died while trying to rescue the other pilot.

Let me say something more: with the practical shelving of the intermediate missile treaty the whle Europe becomes vulnerable to a 5 min attack by advanced Iskanders and cruise missiles.

Russia repeatedly said the treaty signed by Gorbachev and Reagan does not anymore reflect the needs of the country. Plus the fact that other nuclear countries already have the same range missiles. (India, Pakistan, Israel, North Korea, others). From Russian point of view, USA already breached the treaty by inventing Stealth bombers and drones. From the US point of view, Russia breached it by testing cruise missile land based withing the intermediate range. (Notice, the cruise missiles are not banned if they are carried by air, or sea). In Syria we see demonstration of capabilities of such cruise missiles, fired from the thousand kilometers away Caspian sea. About that Putin said, we hope those KH missiles won't need to be nuclear tipped, we hope the conflict is settled conventionally...Such missiles could fit any ship, land base or air base, as they are already carried by the Russian strategic bombers on every mission.

originally posted by: 2012newstart
a reply to: DJW001

Sorry I misunderstood you.

In anyway, both Turkey and Russia are in dangerous game that may well end up with today's Cold Peace shattered to pieces, with consequences far outreaching the continent. I don't agree with sayings of others, that Russia is incapable of launching a strike. Syria involvement speaks of the opposite. Or that Russia will be destroyed as result. The West is much more vulnerable, not having civil defense as vast as that of Russia.
Negotiation is the only way for the West to make that doesn't happen in first place.

Russian generals repeatedly spoke of new weapons systems, including such to be put in space, after the Georgian war. Here is a "leaked" photo of a new giant torpedo-submarine- robot.

Perimeter system en.wikipedia.org...(nuclear_war)#Current_use

In 2011, the commander of the Russian Strategic Missile Forces, Sergey Karakaev, in an interview with Komsomolskaya Pravda, confirmed the operational state of the Perimeter assessment and communication system.[17] The "combat readiness" of this system was again confirmed in November 2015 by the Rossiiskaya Gazeta,

I will reiterate that only a speedy move of the whole international community towards Disclosure process of already discovered and working technologies, with the purpose to make the life better for each country, and not to make the richest-richer, can postpone or cancel a worldwide conflict that seems otherwise inevitable. On top of climate change and other agendas.

Outside of fantasy weapons, and the Russians have a long history of those. The reality is that Russia is no shape for any war with Turkey or the West. 75% of its forces are 1 year conscripts, as we have seen in Syria they are far behind in precision weapons, and its Army can not even meet its authorized strength because nobody will volunteer and the conscripts either buy their way out if they have money or just do not show up if the do not.

Russia made its move against Turkey, some meaninglessness sanctions because that is the only move Russia had. You can pretend outer-wise or hope for some conflict between Russia and Turkey but, its is done. Russia has so many more problems and it needs the Turks for trade and for a way out of Syria. And with Iran's oil and natural gas getting ready to flood the market things for the Russians are going to be getting much worse. The Russians need out of Ukraine, out of Syria and some serious trade and capital from the West. Russia has way to many internal problems. This is simply reality.

a reply to: MrSpad

first of all do you post as a mod or as your personal view. I respect the mod's desire to bring the scales back, but after all there are several posters who post against Russia. (actually I wrote pretty well of Turkey if someone bothers to read it).

I just felt the need to repost that interview with the Moscow think thank, because it sounded urgent. Nuclear response to Turkey, posted in Russian MSM, although not as position of any official.

You couldn't be more misinformed about Russia. Russian army has more drills than Europe and USA combined. When Putin orders every next drill, sometimes in midnight from his airplane, the Western MSM go like crazy to post it as headline. Especially if it is West of Moscow. If the R. army is so weak, why to bother at all.

Russian involvement in Syria comes to correct the US gross failure in Iraq and the inability of US coalition to deal with the monstrous creation IS that came out of it. Bombing IS Russia appears to be defender of everything we call civilization. Indeed there are many groups in Syria and there isn't one view in the international community as who should rule in Damascus. But that should be dealt with negotiations and elections. If the things were as they were before Russian involvement, now we'd have even bigger IS that no one, not even US, dares to confront.

As a reward for that, Turkey shot Russia in the back. And the West backed Turkey, at least formal diplomatic support. Well...let see where it goes. No one of us is a prophet. I just reposted an interview and it brought so many comments in this thread, many of them warning Russia of nuclear armageddon. Well, I guess Shoigu knows that no worse than the respected posters. It seems the West deals as if there are insane children on the other side, and pays 0% to the logic of Lavrov, who seems to be a good chess player. Hope Kerry is a good listener if anything else. To back a country that just shot at the nuclear power N1, is quite stupid in first place. Good for the West, Russian leaders do not think in Soviet terms. 30 years ago, there wouldn't be waited another shot. Because it could be nuclear, yes?

About the oil, indeed it falls and that hurts Russia in short term. Apart of that, the fall of the oil as main energy source is inevitable. The sooner the better for all. Russia has advances in nuclear tech and others.

After all, Disclosure of new super-technological era could be made not only by US and EU. They proved for 26 years after the Fall of Berlin Wall they wouldn't do it. Where are their promises at the end of the Cold War? Let say it, they failed. The economic crisis didn't come from Russia it came from the US and then Europe. It is a big shame for the economic model of the West that came to substitute the "failed model of socialism". Substitute for what in exchange?

www.rt.com...

French President Francois Hollande has announced what he called "a state of economic and social emergency" involving a €2 billion plan to revive hiring and catch up with the world’s economy.
"Due to the threat of terrorism in the past, we had to introduce a state of emergency. But amid global chaos and an uncertain economic environment, it’s appropriate to talk about a state of economic and social emergency. Employment is the most important question after the security of French citizens," TASS quotes Hollande as saying.

a reply to: 2012newstart

Pointing out the reality of Russia's situation is not posting "against Russia." You have been hearing a lot about Russia's nuclear capacity because it lacks the conventional capacity to make good on Putin's threats. Russia has not accomplished what the United States failed to do. Remember when ISIS was going to be destroyed in two weeks? That was months ago. ISIS cannot be defeated by bombing. It was foolish for Russia to get involved.

a reply to: DJW001

While I am not a prophet, I don't think that Syria involvement of Russia is the same as Afghanistan involvement of USSR. IS is a very real danger, bigger than Al Qaeda. US could do better and they didn't. Russia saved the government in Damascus because it was necessary to do it. What are the wider goals, and why IS gathers so much support on the ground, I don't know. I guess the reasons go beyond the borders. It is a shame for Turkey to export the oil of IS, to say the least. Whether there are other players involved, other support from the Arab countries? It is not a secret the fighters in IS are from a ll over the Arab world and beyond. Then we deal with ideology, doctrine and failed understood religion. Why not to address those issues? Why should all those people who flood Europe from both IS war and Africa, why are they unhappy in their "independent countries"? Is there something basically wrong in today's world that calls for a new world order to be established without any further delay? Obviously UN and the big powers are hopeless before such woes as unemployment inside the DEVELOPED DEMOCRACIES let alone the hunger in the Third World.

Russia is doing her best. She should be helped and joined by others, not stabbed int he back. Turkey should be warned in the UN and offer a big apology together with stopping any support for IS. But they don't do that. In fact they are part of the trafficking road to mujaheddin to Europe. We all know that. Those people, some of whom would take automatic guns tomorrow, they didn't come without support of someone. Europe didn't resolve its own problems for all those 26 years. Instead of seeking Russian collaboration in all those years after the end of Cold War, it squeezed Russian space to maximum. Now there is a new enemy, and Russia plays the good team. What team does Madam Merkel play, or the rest of the leaders? What team do the Polish play with? Do they defend the common civilization, that includes Russia, because it is one common civilization for 1000 years, or do they not? Or they forgot it was exactly Russia who stopped the Mongols, and then who fought with the Ottomans? The history repeats itself, but the players do not learn from it. The West still thinks in imperial terms of colonialism, while its very existence is at risk. What kind of West would you have after only 10 years with the current rate of immigrants? May be 10 years are too long period. I expect the status quo to break apart this year. If Russia breaks it, good for all.

a reply to: 2012newstart

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia was invited to join NATO. It refused. It had its reasons, but it has no right to blame all of its problems on NATO.

a reply to: DJW001

From what I know, Putin when came to power in Year 2000, when asked in interview he didn't rule out to join NATO and said he doesn't see his country outside EU. Later EU said Russia is just too big to be a member. Some Western think tanks (American) posted ideas that Siberia is too big to be owned by Russia (as if Alaska and Canada are not). After that, it was pretty much all about one common space. Then you had 9/11, a number of lesser but multiple terrorist acts in Russia, the two gulf wars etc. Whether the negativity of the last decade will be overcome now, I can't say. The West should rediscover its identity, or it will ultimately be overflown by peoples from the South and East. May be Russia will be called as kind of savior at some moment. That moment didn't arrive for the Western politicians yet. They still think they can deal with it (Merkel).

As of Turkey, it should be expelled from NATO. NATO doesn't want nuclear exchange or does it. Instead of planting missiles under Russian borders that will only call back Iskanders. It is stupidity after stupidity. And because those leaders are not so stupid, the other explanation is intentional degradation of the Western civilization by its own masters, for unknown ends. Well, if that happens, intentional or non intentional, the only Christian and European civilization will remain the Russian, plus some survivors of the West (let say Latin America will survive as civilization of Spanish /Portuguese type, no matter how poor they are held now). As John Paul II said, we have a clash of civilizations. Francis called for acceptance of immigrants. But he also called for a new world order. Both he and Benedict called for a supranational authority different from the UN. Voices in the desert. Instead of listening to them, Bush Jr invaded Iraq, and now says the pope doesn't understand from oil when warning of global warming. So who is who after all? Do we have a world that wants to survive, or not? Perhaps the multitudes won't support Bush now, as they didn't support him back in 2003 when he invaded Iraq. He said God told him so. Good for him, a new prophet! It is a time the West to be saved from itself, or it will ultimately die. Not necessarily by Russian nukes, unless it calls for them.