Russian civilian aircraft goes off radar, reportedly crashes over Egypt

originally posted by: ashpack

originally posted by: Zaphod58
a reply to: mzinga

No, I still think it's mechanical. But regardless of what the investigation reveals, with governments saying bomb, anything else will be called a cover up.

I did agree with you but I have changed my mind. I don't think it would be in anyone's interest to cover up a mechanical fault.

European investigators who analyzed the two flight recorders from the Metrojet plane that went down last weekend in Egypt are categorically saying the crash is not an accident,
The investigators said the cockpit voice recorder of Metrojet Flight 9268 shows an explosion and the flight data recorder confirms the explosion is not accidental.

If and when they confirm it was a bomb I think the result will be a big increase in the fight against ISIS from the Russians. It may also help the UK government get support for Air strikes in Syria.

If it is a bomb not convinced yet that is the case. But if it is Putin is about to learn what happened to the US after 9/11. Problem is simple with terrorists that have no central location or government how do you retailiate. George Bush chose to go after Afghanistan for financing abs training terrorists as his response. For Putin the answer isn't that simple ISIL doesn't have a central location there in Syria Jordan, Iraq Egypt,Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Algeria and Libya. Meaning most likely he's just going to have to take the hit. He could increase his bombing campaign in Syria but currently that is already taxing Russia just supplying the current level. So he's not left with a lot of options to retailiate. And if he does he also risks things igniting in caucuses. And terrorist attacks at home in Moscow streets is not going to play well for him.

originally posted by: PickledOnion

originally posted by: ashpack
It looks like the UK acted on the US intelligence but not much coming out about the intelligence apart from "additional activity in the saini region that caught our attention" before and after the crash all related to "internal messages seperate to the public claims of responsibility already made"

The UK have spies everywhere in the middle-east and GCHQ's capabilities are decades ahead of the United states.

... "The British are resisting that very strongly - quite often they've said they'll share the conclusions but not the raw material because access to the raw material will reveal their capabilities."

Western intelligence sources who spoke to the Reuters news agency said part of the intelligence assessment came from intercepted communications from suspected militants and from one or more governments involved in the investigation.

The sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the evidence was not categorical and there is no hard forensic or scientific evidence to support the bomb theory.

A European official briefed by a Western intelligence agency said: "The theory of an explosive device, with local complicity, is being taken seriously.

"Nothing is proven yet, but it is a real possibility."

news.sky.com...

Is "one or more governments" and "local complicity" implying the Egyptian government knew this was going to happen?

a reply to: absente

I haven't read all this thread. But this is what is flying high at the moment in Russia

www.theguardian.com...

Russia has condemned the French satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo for publishing two cartoons about the plane crash in the Sinai desert in which 224 people were killed. One shows debris and body parts falling on Islamic State fighters, with the caption: “IS: Russian aviation is intensifying bombardments” –, a reference to its airstrikes in Syria. Another shows a skull with a pair of sunglasses hanging off it and the debris of the crashed plane in the background. It is titled “The dangers of Russian low-cost airlines”.

Why does it need to be so cruel satire from western Charlie Hebdo magazine when it is concerning Russia ?
Don't expect much sympathy when another Charlie Hebdo journalist will be killed.

I must add that such cartoons are very insulting. If it was official French position that would be enough reason to declare war on France
It is considered a very grave offence to make mockery from dead people in Russian culture

In case of total war France will be annihilated on par with USA if not more now
American Isis with British intel and french journalist laughing their asses it is very close to the end of the West as we know it

originally posted by: kitzik
a reply to: absente

I haven't read all this thread. But this is what is flying high at the moment in Russia

www.theguardian.com...

Russia has condemned the French satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo for publishing two cartoons about the plane crash in the Sinai desert in which 224 people were killed. One shows debris and body parts falling on Islamic State fighters, with the caption: “IS: Russian aviation is intensifying bombardments” –, a reference to its airstrikes in Syria. Another shows a skull with a pair of sunglasses hanging off it and the debris of the crashed plane in the background. It is titled “The dangers of Russian low-cost airlines”.

Why does it need to be so cruel satire from western Charlie Hebdo magazine when it is concerning Russia ?
Don't expect much sympathy when another Charlie Hebdo journalist will be killed.

I must add that such cartoons are very insulting. If it was official French position that would be enough reason to declare war on France
It is considered a very grave offence to make mockery from dead people in Russian culture

In case of total war France will be annihilated on par with USA if not more now
American Isis with British intel and french journalist laughing their asses it is very close to the end of the West as we know it

Charlie Hebdo is cruel to everyone it's called satire. They make it to shock and make a statement. For example the Russian bombardment one. It's reminding you this may have been caused by Putins decision to bomb syria. I don't think Put in understands the mess he put Russia in to in syria. It's going to be very hard for him to leave and its going to cost them dearly. Whole reason the US doesn't want to xomit troops it's a lose lose situation. And the US has already been involved in to many of those.

a reply to: dragonridr

Charlie Hebdo is cruel to everyone it's called satire.

You may call it freedom of speech it is your right. Just know that other cultures are less tolerant and this cartoon put the whole France on the hot list of targets. I reckon 500-1000 nukes even with 20% accuracy will be enough. 2000-3000 for USA and the rest couple of thousands nukes for the rest of the West.
You wouldn't be silent if some Russian satirical journal would be making mockery from Ukranian Malaysian airlines disaster.
Besides, those French frogs didn't paid dearly for Napoleon invasion
Moreover from now on everyone with Je suis Charlie sign is a legitimate and desirable target for Russian sniper.
Why they didn't make satire on their own dead man ? Why they don't make satire on homosexual marriages ? When they start doing this I may believe they are independent free journalists ( and they would be still a scum, yet free scum), as for now I see them as a well fed tool of TPTB.

So, you may think, but Chebdo journalists were killed by muslims. I think that TPTB is a satanistic cult and they need sometimes to make sacrifices of their own.

Evolution of moralea reply to: dragonridr

ria.ru...

On the last "creature" is written Je suis Charlie

originally posted by: kitzik
a reply to: dragonridr

Charlie Hebdo is cruel to everyone it's called satire.

You may call it freedom of speech it is your right. Just know that other cultures are less tolerant and this cartoon put the whole France on the hot list of targets. I reckon 500-1000 nukes even with 20% accuracy will be enough. 2000-3000 for USA and the rest couple of thousands nukes for the rest of the West.
You wouldn't be silent if some Russian satirical journal would be making mockery from Ukranian Malaysian airlines disaster.
Besides, those French frogs didn't paid dearly for Napoleon invasion

Moreover from now on everyone with Je suis Charlie sign is a legitimate and desirable target for Russian sniper.
Why they didn't make satire on their own dead man ? Why they don't make satire on homosexual marriages ? When they start doing this I may believe they are independent free journalists ( and they would be still a scum, yet free scum), as for now I see them as a well fed tool of TPTB.

So, you may think, but Chebdo journalists were killed by muslims. I think that TPTB is a satanistic cult and they need sometimes to make sacrifices of their own.

Really don't think the French are worried about russia. And the French government has no control over what is published in the paper. See in the west journalists are allowed to print anything they want. It's not like in Russia where Put in decides what can and cannot be published.

Unconfirmed but sounds like British Jihadis could be involved.

"Chatter" picked up by GCHQ reportedly featured jihadists with London and Birmingham accents celebrating in Egypt after the explosion.

Well apparently they did pick up something on the cock pit voice recorder.
news.yahoo.com...

originally posted by: dragonridr
Well apparently they did pick up something on the cock pit voice recorder.
news.yahoo.com...

They did Indeed. All seemed completely normal up until the point of the "explosion". Also no alarms to suggest any faults with the plane. This is backed up by the FDR which also shows no faults. I believe both recorders promptly end at this point The data recorders are normally in the tail, I'm not 100% sure if this is the case with an A321. This would be consistent with the tail of the plane being the first part or one of the first parts to seperate as I initially thought when we first started getting an idea of how the debris field is spread.


The images to me certainly look like there was an explosion in the AFT cargo or bulk cargo. Whether this was caused by a bomb or not will have to be proven by forensics.

a reply to: ashpack

They're always in the tail regardless of type. The tail is the most survivable portion.

The explosion could have occurred anywhere. The moment of destruction would have destroyed the entire aircraft at the same time. It would have been too fast for any data to get to the recorders. It wouldn't necessarily have to have lopped the tail off first.

a reply to: dragonridr

See in the west journalists are allowed to print anything they want. It's not like in Russia where Put in decides what can and cannot be published.

You are missing the point. What they published is a bad taste. I'm not going to discuss "freedom of press" in the West, that would be too much off topic. Picketing around French consulate in Petersburg is growing, may be soon french public will be concerned.
The actions will grow until French goverment distancing from the publications or the Franko-Russo friendship will end and there will be grave repercussions for French nationals.

originally posted by: Zaphod58
a reply to: ashpack

They're always in the tail regardless of type. The tail is the most survivable portion.

The explosion could have occurred anywhere. The moment of destruction would have destroyed the entire aircraft at the same time. It would have been too fast for any data to get to the recorders. It wouldn't necessarily have to have lopped the tail off first.

Agreed. Thanks for clarifying that.

BBC are just saying that coming from Cairo the investigation team are now 90% sure it was a bomb despite what they said yesterday.
uk.mobile.reuters.com...

originally posted by: Maya00a
Is "one or more governments" and "local complicity" implying the Egyptian government knew this was going to happen?

No, it means that other governments who have interests in distorting the cause have likely found evidence supporting the theory that it was terrorism and they are actively attempting to deny that while being caught out by GCHQ discussing their plan to make it "something else".

Russia has an interest in making this not terrorism, because it would lead to Putin facing significant criticism from his own population over going into Syria.
Egypt has an interest in making this not about terrorism to protect their extremely important tourism industry.

Out of the two, I would suggest that it most likely means that we have overheard Egyptian officials talking about the evidence they have found, the intelligence they have gathered after the fact, and potentially their desire to make this less damaging to Egyptian tourism.

originally posted by: ashpack
The images to me certainly look like there was an explosion in the AFT cargo or bulk cargo. Whether this was caused by a bomb or not will have to be proven by forensics.

I agree, and I think that's why the UK was right to make this assertion early on.
I don't think we need to be a forensic investigators to see from the debris that this was an explosive event within the plane itself in the rear section.

I think most of us would look at the debris, the positioning, the damage etc, and come to the conclusion that the most likely explanation is that an explosion took place either in the cargo area or the body of the plane itself, in the rear section.

The rest of the investigation will assert what the exact cause was, but it's not unreasonable to come to the conclusions based on the observations we can all make.

originally posted by: Rocker2013

originally posted by: RadioRobert
Because Putin is a professional at what he does, and is waiting for the professional investigators to conclude their complicated and in-depth investigation so that he knows what he's talking about before putting his foot in his mouth?

Yeah, so professional he tried to block investigations into the downing of flight MH17, then tried to present false evidence about it being shot down by Ukrainian fighters.

The man is a sociopath.

I think you misunderstand what I meant by "professional". He's very calculated, and he knows the game. He's playing Chess while several other players seem to be playing checkers.

Why wouldn't he wait until he has the facts before committing himself with an off-the-cuff statement?

Don't confuse begrudging respect for approval of his actions or goals.

Sorry for the delay, my sister who lies in the hospital due to lung cancer is more important than posting on ATS.
The prospects are good after the operation which is very positive

But as promised, a more extensive post about this accident.

This morning i've been reading about the latest developments, a 90 percent certainty of a bomb on board.
Flights to Sharm el-Sheikh are suspended due to safety reasons.

Last week i've gathered a lot of photos to get a better picture and understanding of what might have happened and which has led to the disintegration at high altitude.
You can find all the photos on photobucket.

What certainly has my interest are the signs of an in flight fire below the second door and hatch and thus below the passenger deck, most likely in the forward cargo bay on the side near the wing section and centertank.
hence the damage underneath the cargo bay as seen on the pictures.



This piece of debris is the right side of the fuselage (imagine you sit in an A321)
The hole almost in between the light and the window is decribed as damage due to shrapnel on many sites, but to me it seems more like a frame from a row of seatings has pierced through the fuselage at the moment that this aircraft disintegrated.
Also clearly visible is the heat pattern on one side of the fuselage (the inside).



This is the same piece of debris but seen from another angle.
This hole indicates that something with high velocity pierced the fuselage from within.
So maybe something did explode and might have led to the disintegration of this aircraft, but also caused a fire in this part of the aircraft.






The second part of debris (left side of the fuselage)




Especially this has me puzzled, the deformation of this hatch and burned at the corner.

side view of the same piece.





In other parts of the aircraft, towards the cockpit or towards the rear section, there are no traces of fire.
Not on chairs, debris or luggage from the cargo bay at the rear, but according to investigators there were victims with burns who were seated at the rear of the plane.
Have they made a mistake with the seat numbers towards the rear with the seats towards the front of this aircraft?
It is quite clear that there has been a fire at the main crash site so obviously those victims in the from would have been severely burned.
As for the two pieces of debris i've mentioned above, they cannot have been damaged due to a fire on the ground due to their position compared to the main wreckage.
Either those two pieces of debris were moved (which i doubt) or the front part of the aircraft came down while it was burning.

Although the wings are burned, there are no traces of fire to be seen originating from the engines.
One Fan that was separated from the engine after the crash, is sooted.











The second engine crashed several feets to the left but there doesn't seem to be any pictures of this engine, if you have found one or more, please post them

Some parts of this aircraft are not yet found, parts of the fuselage, a part of the vertical stabilizer, the rudder and a part of the horizontal stabilizer.
considering the debris map and the damage to the rear of the aircraft i'm quite certain that the break up originated just before and beneath the wings, parts of the fuselage must have hit the rear of the aircraft causing damage to the rudder and vertical stabilizer, the horizontal stabilizer, and the lower frame under the horizontal stabilizer.
The apu must have broken away from the tail as a result of that blow.

Map




Tail








In the first picture, the red arrow points to the place where the black boxes are mounted in the tail.






Apu






Ignore the red circle, cables go through that hole, but do notice how the attachment points were torn off.

For reference.


Seats




Fuselage










These pieces of fuselage are likely the first debris on the map, the tail and apu are about 500 to 700 meters further away as seen on the map.

Horizontal stabilizer

a reply to: earthling42

Yeah that looks a lot like explosives damage to me. Only question left would be how.

a reply to: dragonridr

earthling42 thanks for putting all those pics together for us! of course you should be with your sister, just post when you can..glad she is doing good