Why Arming Ukraine could be a dangerous escalation......

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There are many emotional calls for shipping lethal aid to Ukraine....The separatists seem to be forging ahead with expansion and their attacks have been very successful, though bloody costly for both sides......
Now the US mulls over sending arms of an offensive nature....

Cooler heads are opposed to this option, and the debate is ongoing....
Any Opinions out there in ATS Land would be appreciated.....
Though I am in favour of some military aid....I think it should be specifically targeted towards neutralising Russian hardware that's pouring into Ukraine since the easterners revolted against the western backed government.

a reply to: stirling

There are already several European countries that are sending lethal aid to Ukraine (NATO countries acting independently).

I would like to see a non military solution however given the past year I think military support is about the only card left in the deck.

If Ukraine lets Russia keep Crimea and allows the 2 "republics" to do their own thing what happens down the road? The rebel leaders already stated the 2 provinces are just the first step. Giving in would allow a firm foothold and reinforce the fact that they got away with it once so why couldn't rebels / Russia get away with it a second time?

I think the rebels would have been better off complying with the Minsk agreement they signed, which stated elections would be held in the 2 provinces under Ukrainian supervision. When the rebels held their own the crash course was set.

Putin has pulled the same in Georgia as well as Moldova. I don't think Russia nor Pro Russian rebels would end their military campaigns. They would use the time to regroup, rearm and then we would see a continuation of their invasion of Ukraine down the road. Most likely to the point of a land bridge to not only Crimea but to Moldova as well, completely cutting Ukraine off from the Black Sea.

If Russia and the rebels cant abide by a cease fire they signed then why would we assume it would be all over giving them what they want?

The only other scenario that might work is to give the rebels what they want and then for Ukraine to join NATO to end any further aggression from the rebels / Russia.

I say supply weapons and support. Its obvious talking does not work.

The article's reason for not arming them is fear of Putin using nukes.

I can not imagine that he would nuke the Ukraine, internationally I would think that would give everyone a Casus Belli against Russia.

So not helping UA because Russia is scary seems kind of silly (I promise to take that back if WWIII starts via Russian nuke in UA).

High stakes meetings going on right now. Both the leaders of Germany and France have arrived in Moscow for meetings with Putin. They will present a peace plan which will include some parts of a frozen conflict it seems. Of course the US is the bad guy currently threatening to turn Ukraine into a proxy war by arming them. That is Putin's incentive to accept the deal.

Personally I think Germany and France are selling Ukraine down the river. They are spineless and won't even provide weapons so that others can fight for their freedom. I hope Putin turns it down, the West declares a Russian invasion of Ukraine and a full mobilization of NATO happens by the end of this week.

Putin doesn't listen to anything except a gun...time to point one at him.

a reply to: stirling

I think we have already caused enough trouble there,just like in all the other places we have so called 'helped'. It is really a silly idea that Russia will take back Ukraine. That I can't even entertain for a second. If Russia had really wanted to do that,it would already be done,and I don't mean just Crimea. They would have had the whole country a while back.Plus when you look at the fact that Russia has not gone on and taken the rest of Moldova or Georgia,it shows that they don't want those countries as once again part of Russia. They want a buffer zone to keep NATO off their door step,and will do whatever it takes to achieve that.

As far as giving them weapons or aid,I say forget it! How many wars do we have to support more? How much more debt must every man,woman,and child bear due to irresponsible budgeting and war in this country? I for one do not want to see our citizens burdened with this back breaking debt,that has no real benefit for us. Who is threatening us? Trust me its not Russia nor any middle eastern country. Its our own government that is taking our rights away as fast as they can. Now we are trying to make Ukraine our 51st state. If I were running Ukraine and saw the US coming, I would run for the hills! I would not want my country to become another Libya or Iraq. But its too late now,we have already implanted a couple of our citizens in their country to run it the way we want.And that big bad Russia is spoiling our fun 'sob'. Too bad. We need to worry about our citizens and let Ukraine pull itself out of its own cesspool. Its been that way for years now,and STILL hasn't learned to run itself right. If Russia was smart,they would call in their loans on that cesspool and bankrupt it right out from under the Western powers.

The Russians aren't COMPLETE idiots, they won't use nukes unless there is a very real chance another country is going to nuke them. As scary as some comments you read on this site are, I.e some people think nukes are a usuable weapon, I really don't think America, UK or France are likely to launch their nukes at Russia unless they fire first. A nuke war will wipe out ALL life on Earth so it won't happen!
In a conventional war against NATO Russia would get slaughtered and they do know this!
The west as a whole need to arm Ukraine and help them secure their freedoms.

i glanced at an image on CNN news recently of a civilian loading an artillery gun with an artillery shell about the size of a large suitcase .
when writing about topics of war fed to the population such opinions are exactly what the image was of . people are loading the weapons and creating the rage and justification needed for wars to happen . the wars need the dragons tale . without the dragon and the tale which is the media and the lies the wars become obsolete . stop feeding the dragon .

that doesn't mean stop writing about the wars . it means people have more say in the matter than people think .

Hold on a second..

No one is trying to defend UAs freedom! This is about UA trying to take back territory that succeeded from it.

This isn't an invasion. MSM should be outlawed.

Please wake up and realize we have no business over there. They're not a NATO state! Its not our business.

No one wants WWIII over Ukraine. Especially not me. Putin is ex KGB. Obama is a politician. Putin is no fool, he has it planned out, I'm sure. This needs to end.

Just give them 10 or so Nuclear cruise missiles that can reach Moscow and it will be all over. Once C-5 could land with that. Putin would then stand down. Iran is right, possessing Nukes as a country brings peace to your country. Ukraine should have never gave up their nukes to Russian Federation.

originally posted by: Xcathdra
a reply to: stirling

I say supply weapons and support. Its obvious talking does not work.

Stupid, stupid, stupid mad idea. Why are some Yanks so intent on stirring the pot when it will come back and bite them? Russia can hurt you much more than Saudi wannabe pilots. You are really going to upset Putin if you supply weapons to Kiev. Stupid flippin idea. Ukraine means much more to Russia than the USA. Just stay out of this one please, let the locals sort things out without interference from outsiders.

originally posted by: JBurns
Please wake up and realize we have no business over there. They're not a NATO state! Its not our business.

No one wants WWIII over Ukraine. Especially not me. Putin is ex KGB. Obama is a politician. Putin is no fool, he has it planned out, I'm sure. This needs to end.

So... we can't have allies and friends if they are not part of NATO?

a reply to: noeltrotsky

Why do you think there`s an emergency meeting ?

So Kerry and Nuland are in Kiev, and tomorrow Merkel and Hollande will be in Moscow. This is probably the strongest evidence that the Debaltsevo cauldron is closed and the surrounded junta forces desperate and defeated (one Russian military analyst stated in an interview that he believes that about half of all the truly combat capable junta forces are in the Debaltsevo cauldron - in other words, the junta army has been defeated again). In other words, the AngloZionists are again intervening to save their sorry little Nazi buddies and their failed regime in Kiev. How noble of them.

Source

What`s wrong with you guys to wanting to keep fighting after the Ukrainians gets defeated...just keep sending in completely untrained soldiers at gunpoint to become slaughtered again.

So your hate towards one man goes so far as to cheer on sending in thousands and thousands time after time to die ?

We can, and we can do so without another war. What is wrong with you? If we go to war, were all dead. You, me and everyone we know.

Tell me, is destruction worth getting our way? We can remain friends with Ukraine if we accept the republics separation.

of course that doesn't pin the tale on the media . the pin goes through to the other side .

so what does that mean exactly is the thought .
the art of war begins with little steps .
the art of instigation . the consequences are usually the source of the instigation .

a reply to: ufoorbhunter

Not really...

Backing down from Putin does nothing but encourage further asinine behavior from him. Appeasement does not work and never has because those being appeased always want more. As we see with the claims coming from the rebels about the other provinces.

Russia invaded Ukraine...

if people want a peaceful settlement then Russia must withdraw its forces from Ukraine and stop supporting the rebels.

its as easy as that.


If Putin thinks he as the stones to take on the west / EU / US / NATO more power to him. I am hopeful the Russian people will fix the problem by removing him from office before Putin destroys what's left of Russia.

so what you have basically is a little media outlet purposely leaked information a government instigated as a ( you say it so we didn't say it).
then the tale is confirmed by the government through actions alone . without a word . what you have then is a little media outlet has created the first steps toward war and the instigator has left no trace acting on a lie .

originally posted by: JBurns
Please wake up and realize we have no business over there. They're not a NATO state! Its not our business.

No one wants WWIII over Ukraine. Especially not me. Putin is ex KGB. Obama is a politician. Putin is no fool, he has it planned out, I'm sure. This needs to end.

That's the main problem. All this talks of arming and supporting is the main reason the trapped UA in Debaltsevo is fighting on. NAF is taking a breather to further arm and organize. It is best for Kiev to ask trapped 5-7K soldiers to surrender and save their lives.

In few days when NAF goes on offensive again, it will destroy everything in that trap and soldiers will be killed for nothing.

Putin should not listen to any pleas for ceasefire. One ceasefire was enough but Ukes did not even pull their guns from the perimeter and kept on shelling the civilians with not a single day gone with such evil practice.

If Russia wanted Kiev it would already be flying the white blue and red from the parliament building

You Poke the bear or any animal long enough ......

Riouz

originally posted by: Riouz
If Russia wanted Kiev it would already be flying the white blue and red from the parliament building

You Poke the bear or any animal long enough ......

Riouz

and the more rabid the bear gets the more the mindset moves over to euthanizing it so it does not present a danger to others.