Ebola Cases Outside of Africa all 5 of them

a reply to: NoAngel2u

And now, only a few months later, There are 10k cases and you are suggesting that considering projections based on reported cases, never mind all these agencies acknowledge they are far underreported, is an exaggeration and fantasy?

It is if you take it straight to a 6 million number like the other poster did.

Those projections are kinda meaningless. It doubled every month but that doesn´t mean you can just assume that it will keep doing so. There are a lot of factors that play into this like distances between places and the amount of people in the region for instance.

originally posted by: HappyThoughts
a reply to: NoAngel2u

And now, only a few months later, There are 10k cases and you are suggesting that considering projections based on reported cases, never mind all these agencies acknowledge they are far underreported, is an exaggeration and fantasy?

It is if you take it straight to a 6 million number like the other poster did.

Those projections are kinda meaningless. It doubled every month but that doesn´t mean you can just assume that it will keep doing so. There are a lot of factors that play into this like distances between places and the amount of people in the region for instance.

The other poster didn't take it straight to 6 mil. Neither did he assume it would continue to do so, and neither did I.

Those projections are hardly meaningless. Yes, there are many things that factor into this, like abundant and appropriate supplies, gear and facilities, along with med care staff, etc, etc. We all know the list.

If the increased efforts pay off, those "improving projections" will be noticed and referenced by those now saying pay no attention to them.

And so to speak on topic,,, woohoo, we only got 5 cases of bola in the us! Nanernanernanernaner. Me and mines didnt get it, so what's the big deal?

a reply to: NoAngel2u

The other poster didn't take it straight to 6 mil.

He obviously did. This is line that AW responded to.

If 10,000 cases in West Africa resulted in 2 individuals bringing Ebola to the USA, what does 6 million cases in West Africa imply.

Ok?

Those projections are hardly meaningless. Yes, there are many things that factor into this, like abundant and appropriate supplies, gear and facilities, along with med care staff, etc, etc. We all know the list.

If the increased efforts pay off, those "improving projections" will be noticed and referenced by those now saying pay no attention to them.

I don't see a rebuttal in there.

And so to speak on topic,,, woohoo, we only got 5 cases of bola in the us! Nanernanernanernaner. Me and mines didnt get it, so what's the big deal?

I clearly said in my op that my point was that there was no reason to expect a pandemic because it had hardly spread. You also seem to think that I am from the US which is wrong too.

Not only did me and mines not get it, basically EVERYBODY didn't get it outside of Africa, except 5 confirmed cases.

WHO/CDC project cases to 1.4 million in January 2015. My numbers are more conservative than WHO/CDC.

It is extremely hard to model what the risks are of it spreading to other countries. You could pull data from customs/immigration to see what the travel numbers are day to day, ie How many people from West Africa are getting on international flights to other countries. I have no data on 'lockdown' or restrictions to travel from these countries. If you truly restrict travel, than risks of it taking foothold in other countries is less. We may have sporadic cases but that is all.

If Obola places no restrictions and curves project out to where millions are infected in West Africa, than the risk of it getting out of hand in secondary third world countries is greater.

Most western nations have good surveillance and data mining. We can contain outbreaks if they do happen.

I have a question:

If Louise Troh had intimate relations with Duncan before symptoms manifested would she, too, become infected? I'm just wondering at what stage it becomes transmissable in bodily fluids?

a reply to: Biotech2024

WHO/CDC project cases to 1.4 million in January 2015.

Not exactly. That was a worst case scenario.

Assuming no change in the control measures for this epidemic, by November 2, 2014, the cumulative reported numbers of confirmed and probable cases are predicted to be 5740 in Guinea, 9890 in Liberia, and 5000 in Sierra Leone, exceeding 20,000 in total.

The epidemic is not following the worst case scenario. The reported number as of October 31 is 13,540, 32% below that 20,000.

www.nejm.org...=articleTop
www.internationalsos.com...

There is no data on what levels or 'viral titers' is needed before it is manifested in bodily fluids. But symptomatic mark is a good indication that viral titers are high enough for it to present in bodily fluids. It still does not exclude the fact one can still transmit the disease without symptoms. The studies aren't available to exclude this possibility.

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: Biotech2024

WHO/CDC project cases to 1.4 million in January 2015.

Not exactly. That was a worst case scenario.

Assuming no change in the control measures for this epidemic, by November 2, 2014, the cumulative reported numbers of confirmed and probable cases are predicted to be 5740 in Guinea, 9890 in Liberia, and 5000 in Sierra Leone, exceeding 20,000 in total.

The epidemic is not following the worst case scenario. The reported number as of October 31 is 13,540, 32% below that 20,000.

www.nejm.org...=articleTop
www.internationalsos.com...

Healthcare workers on the front lines of the disease state the public numbers are vastly under reported. We just don't know what the real numbers are.

a reply to: Biotech2024

We just don't know what the real numbers are.

That's a given.

The scenario acknowledges that. The projected scenario specifically involves "reported cases."

the cumulative reported numbers of confirmed and probable cases are predicted to be

Adjusting the scenario downward by 32% at this stage would have a major effect on the January figure, wouldn't you agree?

a reply to: Phage

Here is some doom porn... Influenza virus as proxy for Ebola virus.

-------Our main observation was that human influenza viruses can survive and maintain their infectiousness for several days when they are deposited on banknotes. The duration of viral infectiousness was related to both the concentration of the inoculum and the presence of a beneficial microenvironment. When high-concentration inocula were mixed with respiratory mucus, the infectiousness of influenza A (H3N2) and influenza B viruses increased in an unexpected way by up to 17 days. The concentrations of virus needed to achieve this prolonged survival were around 8.9 × 105 TCID50/ml. This concentration is within the range of concentrations found in clinical specimens since at the peak of symptoms during naturally acquired influenza A, the median virus titers in nasopharyngeal secretions can reach 6.3 × 104 to 107 TCID50/ml (6, 11, 14). This protective role of respiratory secretions for the survival of a virus is in agreement with previous studies performed in the 1940s in which Parker et al. showed that there was increased viral stability in the presence of human mucus (17). However, despite the fact that the virus could be cultivated over a long sampling period, the concentration of infectious virus diluted in mucus and deposited on banknotes dropped quite rapidly (approximately 102-fold after 2 h and 105-fold after 2 weeks) (data not shown).------/---


So is there a possibility things can get out of hand this winter. ..yes.

a reply to: Biotech2024

Influenza virus as proxy for Ebola virus.

What makes you think that flu is a valid proxy for ebola?

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: Biotech2024

Influenza virus as proxy for Ebola virus.

What makes you think that flu is a valid proxy for ebola?

"Filoviruses, which are classified as Category A Bioterrorism Agents by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Atlanta, GA), have stability in aerosol form comparable to other lipid containing viruses such as influenza A virus, a low infectious dose by the aerosol route (less than 10 PFU) in NHPs, and case fatality rates as high as ~90% ."
"The mode of acquisition of viral infection in index cases is usually unknown. Secondary transmission of filovirus infection is typically thought to occur by direct contact with infected persons or infected blood or tissues. There is no strong evidence of secondary transmission by the aerosol route in African filovirus outbreaks. However, aerosol transmission is thought to be possible and may occur in conditions of lower temperature and humidity which may not have been factors in outbreaks in warmer climates [13]. At the very least, the potential exists for aerosol transmission, given that virus is detected in bodily secretions, the pulmonary alveolar interstitial cells, and within lung spaces"

a reply to: Phage

In the case of pandemic H1N1 influenza, the person-to-person transmission measured by basic reproduction number (R0) was almost the same (R0 = 1.4 to 1.6) as seasonal influenza (R0 = 0.9 to 2.1), and the disease may in a range from mild to acute(34,35). 

Influenza Virus Type A (excluding 1918 influenza A (H1N1) strain and subtypes H5, H7 and H9)

When compared to:

Overall basic reproductive number (R0) for the epidemic was estimated to be between 1.6 and 2.0, consistent with prior outbreaks. 

Early Epidemic Dynamics of the West African 2014 Ebola Outbreak: Estimates Derived with a Simple Two-Parameter Model

Makes the two seem similar in R0s to warrant the comparison.

a reply to: Mikeultra
If true, she is doing a great job with her mission. Have you seen any comment section on facebook articles? People demanding they throw her in jail(really smart to toss someone they fear infected there, am I right? Morons), to hoping she and her family dies of ebola, or someone runs her over when she is riding her bike, etc etc. Some scary people, and some of it was at libertarian pages as well.

a reply to: Biotech2024

You didn't answer my question. Instead you threw out something else entirely, a study about how to infect monkeys for study purposes. It turns out that this works pretty well:

Animals were then exposed to SUDV in a head-only aerosol chamber within a class III biological safety cabinet for a time-calculated aerosol exposure. Aerosols were generated by a three-jet Collison nebulizer (BGI, Inc, Waltham, MA) controlled by an automated exposure control system

BTW, its expected that links be provided for external sources.
www.mdpi.com...

a reply to: jadedANDcynical
The reference was not to Ro. The reference was to methods of transmission.

originally posted by: TKDRL
a reply to: Mikeultra
If true, she is doing a great job with her mission. Have you seen any comment section on facebook articles? People demanding they throw her in jail(really smart to toss someone they fear infected there, am I right? Morons), to hoping she and her family dies of ebola, or someone runs her over when she is riding her bike, etc etc. Some scary people, and some of it was at libertarian pages as well.

Prooof!!!

Don't go bad mouthing my party of preference offhandedly like that. If this is OT I care little. Please and thanks.

Edit: I just saw you said libertarian "pages." Was comment section? Was "politician?" Was mouth piece? Was Ron?

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: jadedANDcynical
The reference was not to Ro. The reference was to methods of transmission.

In the end, researchers concluded that the new species of Ebola was highly contagious in monkeys but not in humans. They also learned that the disease was not only found in Africa, since the monkeys had come from the Philippines. The investigators determined aerosol transmission was particularly quick in a lab setting, because the virus appeared to pass between rooms to infect susceptible monkeys.

www.restonnow.com...

a reply to: Phage

And R0 refers to the average number of people infected per case, regardless of mode of transmission and is a valid factor to use as a comparison.

Epidemiological modelling based on the data from previous EBOV outbreaks has produced a basic reproduction number (R0) of 2.7 with a 95% confidence range of 1.9 to 4.1 (Legrand et al., 2007). This R0 is comparable to influenza (Mills et al., 2004) and would seem to be comfortably within the range required to generate an EVD pandemic. In answer to the question of why this has not already occurred in human history, perhaps the most persuasive response is that EVD very fortunately only emerged into human populations around the time of its discovery in the mid-1970s (Walsh et al., 2005), by which time we were fairly equipped to deal with it in remote low population density settings. Whether we can contain it within a large city, should the necessity to do so arise, remains to be seen.

The 2014 Ebola virus disease outbreak in west Africa



I will say that it appears that Dallas and Akron seem to have gotten lucky, now we just watch with New York.

Nigeria and Senegal seem to have gotten a handle on their situations and now Mali needs to clamp down.

We cannot keep counting on luck.

a reply to: nukedog
Yes, comment section of articles posted on libertarian-minded facebook groups. I had to doublecheck and see if I took a wrong turn into liberal-land by accident lol.