US to China: We’re hosting world’s largest naval exercise, in Pacific

a reply to: nugget1

There’s world of difference between operational and effective. China has a large naval force, but until recently it was geared towards regional conflicts. The ships that went to RIMPAC in 2014 and 16 were some of the only true blue water forces they had at the time. They have only been conducting true long range deployments in recent years, and in fairly small numbers to get experience.

As for their ballistic missiles, they are absolutely a real threat, to be taken seriously, but again, operational doesn’t mean effective. There are a lot of obstacles to overcome to target ships, no matter who you are or what weapons you’re using. The US has the same obstacles to overcome, but has the experience and doctrine that China is still working on.

None of this is trying to say China wouldn’t be a threat, or would be an easy fight, because they are, and it will be ugly, but don’t make the mistake of over estimating their capabilities anymore than US capabilities. A fight on their terms is going to be even more brutal.

a reply to: nugget1

Couple things to remember, China has little to no logistical experience, and until they get that experience they are little threat to anyone that isnt a next door neighbor.

When they go for Taiwan that will be there first time trying to do seaborne and air assault attacks under fire.

Given time will they perfect this stuff sure, but it wasnt that long ago they were still following Russian doctrine, which as we see in ukraine doesnt appear to be aware of the logistics train at all.

My wild arsed guess would be they will have to move due to economic instability, or the ageing population (some reports say be the end of this century china will be past the point of no return pop wise) before they are truly ready. I think they will move before 2024 while the political winds still favor them.

a reply to: Irishhaf

Their plan was to go this year, Russia may have messed that up for them.

a reply to: OccamsRazor04

Taiwan has certainly been sitting on ready, while we will never know I wonder... russia, people getting pissed at seeing that taste of freedom removed, zero covid policy.

Maybe their generals took a second look after seeing the egg laid by russia and went no we arent ready yet.

What will they do if a UAP visits RIMPAC, I wonder.

originally posted by: Archivalist
What will they do if a UAP visits RIMPAC, I wonder.

"accidental" sinking/splashing prolly.

So basically, from what I'm reading, the major world powers are all wanting to rise to Top Dog and if looming food shortages are severe enough a smack-down is inevitable.

a reply to: Zaphod58

Politics aside, I always looked forward to RIMPAC when it was held here.

Lots of cool planes at MCAS Kaneohe (now MCBH), identifying the foreign ones was fun. The "assaults" on Bellows were cool. LCACs are terrifying and Essexes are awesome. Last time here the Chinese were invited to observe. That was sort of weird.

a reply to: Phage

We used to occasionally be at Bellows when the AAVs would come ashore, usually on the civilian side. They’d pull up into the trees and set up a mini camp for awhile, then head out again. They left godawful deep tracks in the sand.

a reply to: Zaphod58

Back when LSTs were a thing there was quite the disaster on the west end of Molokai. In the winter. When the surf was up. Really, really up. But they just had to run the maneuvers.

a reply to: nugget1

I've said it before, and I'll keep saying it. As long as nations compete for resources, there will be wars. No nation is going to give up resources they need "for the good of mankind", and let everyone else get what they need in return. So until we have some kind of breakthrough that lets us stop fighting over resources, there's always going to be someone posturing to be top dog, and take what they need. The South China Sea is full of resources with overlapping claims. The varying EEZs are overlapping because of countries being so close to each other. China sees the entire area as being theirs because of historical claims, despite them giving them up, and signing treaties, so they are determined to get what they can. It's resulted in actual shooting incidents between China and other nations, as well as other military incidents. That's why so many nations in the area have turned to the West, and are willing to work together despite historical hatred going back centuries. The only way for them to stand up to China is in a group.

a reply to: Zaphod58

One World! One World! One World!

But seriously folks. Self interest is always the driving force. There could actually be such a thing as enlightened self interest but as far as I can tell humans, on the whole, are not capable of employing it.

We're screwed.

Downer, I know.

a reply to: nugget1

You think the Chinese drones will be there again? Not so sure battle groups are not a thing of the past. Maybe 100% outdated even. Smart swarms of weaponized drones is a Chinese specialty as are hypersonic anti ship missiles. I doubt China is overly concerned folks. Didn't we just hand them all of Russia's natural resources and on the cheap too? Danger will robinson, danger!

Mystery drones hovered over Navy destroyers off California, report says
www.nbcnews.com...

The world is changing man and power can longer be weighed in number tanks but rather weaponized AI etc..
Researchers claim quantum device performs 9,000-year calculation in microseconds
forums.theregister.com...#:~:text=Researchers%20claim%20quantum%20device%20performs%209%2C000-year %20calculation%20in,that%20would%20take%20a%20conventional%20computer%209%2C000%20years.