China Rocks the Geopolitical Boat!

Just two months ago news of a China-Kazakhstan pipeline agreement, worth US$3.5 billion, raised some eyebrows in the world press. Some hinted that China's economic foreign policy may be on the verge of a new leap forward.

Well its here!

China just signed a $100 billion agreement with Iran for a 25-year supply of liquefied natural gas and are negotiating another (up to) $100 billion agreement for oil.

It is perhaps too early to digest fully the various economic, political and even geostrategic implications of this stunning development, widely considered a major blow to the Bush administration's economic sanctions on Iran and particularly on Iran's energy sector, notwithstanding the Iran-Libya Sanctions Act (ILSA) penalizing foreign companies daring to invest more than $20 million in Iran's oil and gas industry.
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For a United States increasingly pointing at China as the next biggest challenge to its Pax Americana, the Iran-China energy cooperation cannot but be interpreted as an ominous sign of emerging new trends in an area considered vital to US national interests.
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China, Russia and Iran share deep misgivings about the perception of the United States as a "benevolent hegemon" and tend to see a "rogue superpower" instead.
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A glance at Chinese security narratives, and it becomes patently obvious that Beijing shares Iran's deep worries about US unipolarism culminating in, as in Afghanistan and Iraq, unilateral militarism. Various advocates of US preeminence, such as William Kristol, openly write that the US should "work for the fall of the Communist Party oligarchy in China".

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But, realistically speaking, what are the prospects for any regional and or continental realignment leading to the erasure of US unipolarism, notwithstanding the US military and economic colossus bent on preventing, on a doctrinal level, the emergence of any challenger to its global domination now or in the future? The strategic debates in all three countries, Russia, China and Iran, feature similar concerns and question marks.

�a pertinent question is who will win over Russia, Washington, which pursues a coupling role with Moscow vis-a-vis Beijing, or Beijing, trying to wrest away Moscow from Washington? For now, Russia does not particularly feel compelled to choose between stark options, yet the situation may be altered in China's direction in case the present drift of US power incursions are heightened in the future. The answer to the above question should be delegated to the future. For now, however, the quantum leap of China into the Middle East and Caspian energy markets has become a fait accompli, no matter how disturbed its biggest trade partner, the US, over its geopolitical ramifications. read more�

China has stepped firmly into the Middle East oil market. Will the US stand by and let it happen or will they move up their time schedule?

US will have Iraq and China will have Iran?

Will the two come to a standoff?

How will the Bush administration react?

The geopolitical ramifications of this are huge!

Not an entirely unexpected development. Still... my head is spinning�

Gools asks the following

China has stepped firmly into the Middle East oil market. Will the US stand by and let it happen or will they move up their time schedule?
(what are you implying letting it happen? Iran is under no restrictions for selling its oil/access, and china can buy from who they want as long as they have $$$$)

US will have Iraq and China will have Iran?
(NO, the USA will have Iraq, china will be engauging in business with Iran...they will hardly "have" iran)


Will the two come to a standoff?
(over what? this seems like a NON ISSUE)

How will the Bush administration react?
(why is a reaction nessisary, again whats the problem?)

The geopolitical ramifications of this are huge!
(or miniscule as i havnt seen yet why this is important...Many countries knew china's energy needs were rising and im not suprised that they have made business deals with an entrenched oil supplier)

Not an entirely unexpected development. Still... my head is spinning�
(mine too, still trying to understand why this is soo disturbing)

The ramifications are extremely huge. Now China can feed that energy need. An energy need itself is a good thing, it means you cannot grow beyond it. An energy supply means you can grow. China is moving from need to supply. With an economy already in double figures for growth.

The IMF and World Bank, along with many private sector analysts have said if China doesn't slow itself down this rate of growth will be catastrophic when outside forces cause an end to growth. That was while China had an enrgy need.

Now they have an energy supply there is nothing holding them back from even faster growth, and a consequently bigger fall.

No nation has been able to challenge the US economically. Even when they were running with Reagenomics they could carry a deficit worth multiple third-world economies combined.

Japan and Germany, the only economies to challenge the US, have not recovered yet from respectively the bubble bursting and re-unification.

China's economies of scale are the biggest on earth, with the biggest of everything possible, consumer base, manufacturing base etc. That means with a guaranteed energy supply they can challenge the US and if the world economy fails at the right time they will survive on their own base, not go down with everyone else.

The tigers all suffered when Thailand melted down in '97. With a guaranteed enrgy supply and expanding home-grown market China can pretty much avoid those sort of complications.

this is crazy! we provide the chinese massive trade dividends and then they take our money and buy stuff from our sworn enemy. china you filfthy whore

Get over it. It's their money they can do whatever they like with it. No-one has broken any trade agreements or International laws. Two countries have signed a deal for one to buy something from the other. So China will have a well-growing economy, so what? So they might grow enough to be a rival to the US, so what? It's their choice to buy and Iran's choice to sell.

The 'huge' geopolitical ramifications seem to be that someone might have an economy as big as the US. Ooh, diddums, are the nasty chinese catching up with you?

Those scumbags, how dare they try and safeguard their future.

Hmmm... I think some people are missing the big picture.

If you can't see the big deal I don't know where to begin explaining it. Except to say that the politics of the Middle East and the US politics of "national security" related to oil will be greatly affected.

Originally posted by sturod84
this is crazy! we provide the chinese massive trade dividends and then they take our money and buy stuff from our sworn enemy. china you filfthy whore

Man,what's mean "provide"?Chinese provide you computers/TVs/clothes...?Trade bases on a basis of willling buy and willing sell.if you don't like trade,then go to rob...like what you are doing in Iraq.

Please.

Let's stay on topic. OK?

This is not a "let's bash China" (or the US) thread.

.

Originally posted by sturod84
this is crazy! we provide the chinese massive trade dividends and then they take our money and buy stuff from our sworn enemy. china you filfthy whore

Yes how dare they manage affairs with out the permission of the US! Since when has building your country become an anti-us move?

Back on topic, good for China if everything works out this should really help them in the progression of China.

[edit on 8-11-2004 by Wask]

[edit on 8-11-2004 by Wask]

OK, this is how I see the big picture.

China has signed a long term, high value deal with Iran which should provide for it's energy needs for the next 25 years. This should allow China to continue it's industrialisation and economic growth at close to current levels for some time to come. This will obviously make China a major player on the world economic stage.

The second obvious implication is that China now has a vested interest in Iran. Their top priority will be to attempt to ensure a stable, uninterrupted supply for the length of the deal. The best way to do this will be to maintain the status quo, doing their utmost to prop up the current regime in Tehran. Any military aggression by the US will therefore be detrimental to China's interests and may force them to take action (be it covert or overt) to support the regime. In order to secure these supplies China may begin trade in weapons systems with Iran, possibly as payment for a portion of the contract.

Iran now has a strong ally, which will worry the US govt, and may become more defiant and more determined to press ahead with it's own plans. If Russia stalls on assisting them in their nuclear energy projects, they may turn to China, who will be pressured to help them. With this option available to them, they will be less willing to submit to international inspections or compromise , antagonising the US and EU further. With trade deals also comes the possibilty (however unlikely) of other pacts such as a mutual defence treaty.

An alliance between China and Iran may also prompt Russia to consider where it's interests lie. Russia is already close to China and has co-operated with Iran on several projects. If Russia were to decide to side with Iran and China, a formidable axis of both military and economic power be created, threatening US interests in not only the gulf region but also the caucasus.

That's my take on it (and probably a worst case scenario), feel free to rip it apart and call me an idiot.

edit: and I stand by what I said before, just because they're doing something that isn't in the best interests of the US, doesn't make them whores or mean there'll be a standoff or that you have to have a reaction.


[edit on 8-11-2004 by Chris McGee]

First we alienate ourselves from the world. Then we destroy our economy, now the world is moving on without us. Oh well, it was fun being number one while it lasted. At least we Hollywood to remind the rest of the world who we are.

this is crazy! we provide the chinese massive trade dividends and then they take our money and buy stuff from our sworn enemy. china you filfthy whore

sworn enemy? no foe forever. no friends forever. look at poor sadam. now sadam knows who the real pimp is..

Hi dudes,

Chinese government is a smart one. They have the power to their people and they want the money to have something in the world.
I am a Chinese, and know how smart Chinese government be, they could control all the nation and they fully enjoy this, then America, their natural enemy (As freedom VS communism), definitely become the target, one side they need US to get money, the other side, they need Chinese people hate US, they won't give up their power to chinese people.
They think, the enemy of enemy is friend, then they choose Iran whatever how bad that country is.

After living many years in US, i really hope Chinese people could wake up and throw "old friends" away, they are North Korea, Cuba (You never see such a president when he control that country Bill Clinton was a just a college freshmen, when Clinton finished his 8 years white house life, that old guy still is Cuba's president, what a sucked communism dream!)

If you were not a real Chinese people who has lived in that country for more than 20 years, you don't know how we hate that untruthful government, a government hijacks its people for more than 50 years, and econtinue. If American government really want to liberate a nation, please fight against Communism.

Also any trade embargo's put on iran wont amount to much with china being their largest trading partner.
Didnt china say they would veto any UN resolutions against iran?

Kinda hard to have a trade agreement with a country that has been bombed into the stone age. I doubt we will ever see ground forces in Iran but I wouldn't be surprised to see US bombers knocking flat anything bigger than a compact car.

And the award for the most insightful and intelligent, yet painfully obvious statement goes to...CHRIS McGEE!!:

"The second obvious implication is that China now has a vested interest in Iran. Their top priority will be to attempt to ensure a stable, uninterrupted supply for the length of the deal."

The only thing that is keeping the CCP in power these days is that they are driving a nationwide economic boom, the likes of which ordinary Chinese have never seen before. Ironically China now has a growing affluent (by Chinese standards) middle class thanks to, of all things, the Chinese Communist Party. If the money dries up, China will have a revolution on her hands once again, just as she has many times throughout her 6000 year history. The power-drunk, money-drunk CCP knows this all too well, they being the very instigators of the last Chinese revolution. They will stop at nothing to protect their economic success. The reason they haven't invaded Taiwan is not because they fear the US military might, it's because they fear the economic consequences of a drawn-out battle with a US-supported Taiwan.

Scenario: China threatens Taiwan, the US sends a few carriiers to circle the island, China fires a warning missile which happens to hit a carrier. Oops! World War III.

Same poo, different bucket: China sets up an oil deal with Iran to ensure her industrial growth (which is in grave danger of collapsing due to energy shortages). The US govt. continues it's War On Whatever and takes it into Iran justified with falsified intelligence reports. China sends in troops to protect her interests. A US bomber gets shot down by Chinese forces. Whoopsies! World War III boys and girls.

The only thing that is keeping the CCP in power these days is that they are driving a nationwide economic boom, the likes of which ordinary Chinese have never seen before. Ironically China now has a growing affluent (by Chinese standards) middle class thanks to, of all things, the Chinese Communist Party. If the money dries up, China will have a revolution on her hands once again, just as she has many times throughout her 6000 year history. The power-drunk, money-drunk CCP knows this all too well, they being the very instigators of the last Chinese revolution. They will stop at nothing to protect their economic success. The reason they haven't invaded Taiwan is not because they fear the US military might, it's because they fear the economic consequences of a drawn-out battle with a US-supported Taiwan.

i agree with some of your viewpoints,there is a fast increasing middle class in china,and since the chinese are well educated and know the outside world much better than before,china is having its foundations to become a democracy,the only question is the time.i myself quite optimistic of this.


but one mistake u made(IMO) is that u see the CCP as a whole,actually the CCP is made up of tens of millions of people(My God),the majority of which are ordinary workers,peasants,teachers and students.so corrupted senior officers doesn't represent the CCP.(although the CCP has left a bad impression to the majority of people becaz of this)


As for taiwan,it is a part of china and never is a independent country,any chinese(no matter what viewpoints he/she holds of the current govt) certainly want it return to china peacefully.but it seems to me that some busybody are not very glad to see that,and very eager to make china to fall to pieces.of caz they can do that(under some very beautiful execuses),if they are ready to pay the price.

[edit on 10-11-2004 by suihx]

foundations to become a democracy,the only question is the time.i myself quite optimistic of this.

If China ever attains democracy, it will be a long time from now, and unfortunately it will most likely only happen via revolution, a failed war effort, or internal economic collapse. As long as the CCP is doing well, they will not give up the reins and institute a multi-party system. Why should they? They hold all the power and money, and China is developing nicely as it is. Although they profess otherwise through propoganda and such, the leaders of the CCP couldn't give a rats derriere what the people think. As long as there are no major events, the political status quo will continue for a very long time in China. Regardless, within the timeframe of events in the Middle-East and a possible conflict between China and the US over Iran oil, this is a moot point.

but one mistake u made(IMO) is that u see the CCP as a whole,actually the CCP is made up of tens of millions of people(My God),the majority of which are ordinary workers,peasants,teachers and students.so corrupted senior officers doesn't represent the CCP.

True to an extent, but these people are not in control of anything, and do not make any decisions. This "we are all the Communist Party" is part of the Communist delusion that exists among less insightful Chinese citizens. Sure, there are millions of people in China that call themselves Communist Party members, just as their are millions of people across the US that call themselves Republicans, but they do not make the decisions. So, again, a moot point.

As for taiwan,it is a part of china

This is completely off-topic. If you wish to post your opinion on the issue of Taiwan's national sovereignty, you can go to these relevant threads:
www.abovetopsecret.com...
www.abovetopsecret.com...
www.abovetopsecret.com...

So, without trying to be facetious: of your three points, two are moot and the other is off-topic. What exactly is your point regarding the issue at hand, i.e. China negotiating oil deals with Iran?

well,let's back to the topic
Since china is now thirsty for oil,it is natural that china buys oil from Iran.
it is just a business without breaking any law or rule of anykind,and that's all.

since the reformers took charge 20 years ago and economy development was given priority,china has been an isolationist and acts almost purely on its intrests.china will cooperate with any country regardless whether it is capitalism,socialism,communism or even a primitive trible,as long as china can benefit from that.china is "making friends" all over the world,while carefully keep the distance so as not to be involved in any disputes and confrontation.


it is the same with Iran.IMO, china won't use weapons or techs in exchange for the oil,caz the saving of a few dollars is likely make china
be involved in a conflict.if the US launchs an attack on Iran,china is likely to stand by and prepare the cooperation with the next regime.All that china wants is oil,and it won't care from whom it comes.

[edit on 11-11-2004 by suihx]

Agreed.

Let's hope that you're right about the CCP just standing back and waiting till the dust settles to see who they should get the oil from next. Noting the heated anti-US foreign policy sentiment from the CCP, it would be touch and go if this kind of situation presented itself.

The CCP has always maintained that it keeps its nose out of other goverments' business and expects the same in return, but the CCP has never put China in such a position of potential conflict before. The CCP is kind of jumping in the path of the rushing bull, and if it gets hit, what will the reaction be? That's why I compared the Taiwan situation to a possible Iran situation: Right or wrong aside, the US government puts itself in the path of the bull by protecting Taiwan in the face of CCP aggression, and, right or wrong aside, the CCP would be doing the same by having such an economically and politically important deal with a country that may well be in the path of the US governments' War on Whatever-Justifies-The-Cause.