War on the dollar begins!

Well, it's finally started. Now the question remains: Just how bad will it get?

I mean the global war against the U.S. dollar. America's debt junkie status is about to be tested, and it starts with China.

China is claiming that it will be replacing some of its currency reserves in U.S. Dollars with precious metals. Just the threat alone caused the dollar's value to tumble today.

Could this be the long-speculated start of America's economic hijacking? Foreign powers -- in particular China -- own so many U.S. dollars in order to finance our astronomical consumer debt that any movement those governments make in selling the currency can spark an exaggerated reaction in the value of the dollar.
In a worst case scenario, let's say dollar holders begin to lose confidence in the US currency -- they begin to sell the dollar. That selloff reduces its value, sparking inflation domestically. The more the dollar is sold, the less it becomes, the higher inflation here.

Politically, foreign governments could have us by the #$$@*! While I'm not judging whether the Democratic sweep on Tuesday is good or bad, it's easy to see how our enemies smell blood in the water. And maybe it's time to take advantage of it.

Bush is extremely weak; the country is politically disheveled; our enemies know our resolution is tattered and we won't be able to counter them economically. Plus, I think China also is firing the proverbial warning shot across our bow, more particularly at the Democrats, some of whom have been openly calling to impose tariffs on China imports.

Things are about to get interesting...Hope you all know how to farm!

The Democrats seem to absolutely demand a higher minimum wage, which will cause inflation, and devalue the dollar in relation to other currencies.

There's really no such thing as raising the minimum wage, but I guess it makes the Democrats happy

Originally posted by behindthescenes
In a worst case scenario, let's say dollar holders begin to lose confidence in the US currency -- they begin to sell the dollar. That selloff reduces its value, sparking inflation domestically. The more the dollar is sold, the less it becomes, the higher inflation here.

Actually, there's a worse worst case:

There are, however, a few mechanisms around the world that prevent a total run on the dollar. Foremost among them is a 1970s decision by the oil cartel, OPEC, to price the world’s oil exchanges in dollars. Hence, in order to buy oil, nations need dollars. China, for example, hoards dollars so that they can buy OPEC oil. This keeps the demand for dollars artificially high. If oil markets convert to a harder currency, such as the euro, the reign of the dollar, and along with it the solvency of the US economy, would be over.

Source
So OPEC has the US by the short 'n curlies. They'd never consider moving away from the US dollar as their oil standard trade currancy, tho... right?

Err...

OPEC is considering a move away from using the U.S. dollar — and to the euro — to set its price targets for crude oil, the highest-profile manifestation of the debilitating effect of depreciation on the greenback's standing as the currency of international commerce.

Source

Time to be getting worried.

Originally posted by djohnsto77
The Democrats seem to absolutely demand a higher minimum wage, which will cause inflation, and devalue the dollar in relation to other currencies.

There's really no such thing as raising the minimum wage, but I guess it makes the Democrats happy

For Pete's sakes, isnt it a little premature to be blaming the Dems?

Originally posted by djohnsto77
The Democrats seem to absolutely demand a higher minimum wage, which will cause inflation, and devalue the dollar in relation to other currencies.

There's really no such thing as raising the minimum wage, but I guess it makes the Democrats happy

I used to not be in favor of the min wage increase, thinking if you want more money, find a better job. But who foots the bill for the increase? Product will not substantially go up in price, I wouldn't think, it will be rich shareholders, and execs that would notice and, really, who gives a sh/t about them?


I don't

Originally posted by dgtempe

Originally posted by djohnsto77
The Democrats seem to absolutely demand a higher minimum wage, which will cause inflation, and devalue the dollar in relation to other currencies.

There's really no such thing as raising the minimum wage, but I guess it makes the Democrats happy

For Pete's sakes, isnt it a little premature to be blaming the Dems?

HAHA, nope. I already blame the Democrats for a failed war in Iraq, a messed up foriegn policy and of course they completely failed at border security .. not to mention they are collapsing the ecnomy and making it harder on the little man.

Sorry, inherit the job, inherit the BS that comes with it!

But honestly, if any one here has some freakin money... BUY GOLD NOW because if China really is following through.. Gold will sky rocket. Again.

Higher prices, higher inflation, higher interest rates are all in the cards with a Dem congress. At least Bush still can veto, but God help us if a Dem is elected president in 2008 and the Dems hold the Congress.

[edit on 11/9/2006 by djohnsto77]

Can we please try to stay on topic here?

Re-read my above post.
The internal affairs of the US have very little impact on this topic compaired to what OPEC and other groups could do the the value of the US dollar.

I don't see any way the US could defend itself against a move to Euro based oil trade.

Maybe I'm out in left field, but I just don't think if the pricing of petroleum changed from dollars to euros it'd make much of a difference.

Who cares, the buyer changes money and the seller changes it to something else anyway.

Read the articals I linked to.
If you aren't worried about the impact this could have, you don't understand the situation.

Edit:

In a nutshell:
The problem is that almost every country holds a reserve of US dollars because that is currently the only currancy that you can buy oil with. This it the primary reason that the US is able to support such an insane national debt. If OPEC changed their standard from US Dollars to Euros, all those countries would dump their reserves in favor of Euros. With all that dumping going on, the US Dollar would devalue at a catistrophic rate.

It could easily drop BELOW the level of the Mexican PASO!


[edit on 9-11-2006 by BitRaiser]

Originally posted by djohnsto77
Maybe I'm out in left field, but I just don't think if the pricing of petroleum changed from dollars to euros it'd make much of a difference.

Who cares, the buyer changes money and the seller changes it to something else anyway.

No, you left the ball park entirely. The whole reason our economy stays up is because people buy our money. Honestly, think about it. What do we produce compared with our intake? nothing. except wealth, which is worth nothing if no one wants it.

It isn't a matter of one day China says it wants more gold.. it takes ALOt of time to switch currecnies.. which is why America has a hold on it. Russia will do all oil trade in Rubbles, but there are not enough Rubbles in circulation to meet the need, so only a small amount is done in the Rubble, the rest in the Dollar. OPEC nations would like a bourse as well, Iran wants to go to the Euro, but to change their entire reserve would take a while because the Euro is not produced fast enough to meet the needs. The Dollar is everywhere, you can't escape it. That is why it is used, simply to hard to switch real fast, and once your switching... we might declare war on you. I think the entire reason we went to war with Iraq is because Saddam went to the Euro. Now all trade with Iraq is back to the Dollar.

What do our European friends think of this? We openly engage in dollar wars to keep the Euro down. Eventually though it will be surpassed.

Originally posted by BitRaiser
This it the primary reason that the US is able to support such an insane national debt.

But we don't have an insane national debt. As a percentage of GDP, it's actually lower than most industrialized democracies, including Canada.

[edit on 11/9/2006 by djohnsto77]

Djoh... you need to stop arguing and start understanding.

Ashcan the strawman tactics. This isn't about who's national debt is greater. It's not about how great or vile the American empire is.

It's about the FACT that OPEC (and other groups) has the entire US ecconomy by the balls.

Oh, and for the record, those National Debt vs GDP figures you are going by have been fudged. Check it out: Click here

So if China manages to drag the dollar down, who will buy Chinese products?

Seems to be against their best interests in the long run.

Originally posted by behindthescenes

Things are about to get interesting...Hope you all know how to farm!

Dude, the US 's greatest export is FOOD! WE ARE MOSTLY INDUSTRY AND FARMLAND!

I dont think we will starve.

however, I believe we should stop exporting food. period.

Originally posted by Desert Dawg
So if China manages to drag the dollar down, who will buy Chinese products?

Seems to be against their best interests in the long run.

Ya know...

there's this little thing called "The rest of the world" that you seem to be forgetting.
Besides, as has already been pointed out above, in the case of a Dollar collapse the US will be buying Chinies products not because they are cheep, but because they don't have a choice.

What I don't understand was why the USA (Bush admin) pushed for China to unpeg the Yen from the US Dollar. By doing that it made the Yen less dependant on the US dollar and the value of the Yen could possibly surpass the value of the dollar. It seemed to me that by pegging the dollar to the yen it was better in that China would serve themselves better by keeping the value of the dollar higher if their yen was pegged. As soon as the yen was unpegged the yen went up in value and it costed more to buy Chinese products. Just didn't make sense to me.



Pie

I agree, the dollar is under threat for the reasons stated by the OP.

There are however two bits of good news.. They won't save the dollar value long term, but will slow down the decline enough that it won't be too damaging.

1. Since the US owes so much debt to the rest of the world, which it will repay in dollars, it is actually in the interest of these lenders to keep the dollar high. i.e if I lend the US government 1000 dollars, at 5% interest rate, but the dollar declined in value by 5% a year, then when measured in sterling, I would actually be recieving an effective rate of 0%. If the dollar crashed by 50%, I would be losing 50% of my money, as measured in pounds sterling. So it's in the interest of most of the world to keep the dollar stable.

2. If the dollar DOES decline in value, imports will be come expensive for Americans.. but conversely American goods will become cheaper for the rest of the world. A falling dollar woukld actually fuel a manufacturing boom in the US, as US citizens and the rest of the world start buying all these cheap American goods. Since foreigners pay for US goods in dollars, they must buy dollars, which supports the value of the dollar from further fall until a new equiilibrium is reached. Therefore a falling dollar can be a good thing.

Originally posted by djohnsto77
But we don't have an insane national debt. As a percentage of GDP, it's actually lower than most industrialized democracies, including Canada.
[edit on 11/9/2006 by djohnsto77]

True. It's in the upper end of it's historical range for the US, but it's worth noting that the debt was higher at the start of the baby boom years, and those didn't turn out so bad!

US National Debt Graph

List of countries, national debt as % of GDP

Personal debt is a different matter. That is a problem that must come to a head at some point, either via consumer slow down leading to recession, a property/ stock market crash or similar.. However this isn't a direct threat to the dollar since really only relates to the domestic economy.

[edit on 9-11-2006 by nowthenlookhere]

Remember that little man..Ross Perot?

Simple economics are at play here.

The US ecnonomy was driven primarily by home sales as well as vehicles.
The low interest rates and creative lending conditions by mortgage lenders allowed for America, to borrow, borrow, borrow against tomorrows earnings.

Those days are here..When you spend tomorrows dollar today, you have to make two dollars to catch up. If you dont catch up, or are a slow pay, its a recession.
If you cant pay at all, its called a depression.

We spent big in the Government.
We spent big with houses and Cars.
Car sales are hammered, and houses are down...some figures put them down by 30%

You cant print more money, and have deficit spending, and expect the world to turn around. If we were to run a business, the way the federal Government handled money, we would be in Jail or out of business.

We are now going to pay, for the debt we racked up.

If we are having problems in times of plenty, what is going to happen in real times of strife?

For America to repair..a couple things need to happen.

The Government needs to live within its means.

The Business world needs to treat the rest of the world with economic equality...and stop Corporate stripping of third world countries.

We The People need to live within our means.

And then maybe we will have the means to recover.

The Seeds we plant as a nation, can either grow into fruit, or into briars.

This is not a party issue. This is a society issue.

The guy that gets up today, that gouges a country abroad, will be the guy that gets gouged in the end. All this hubbub about the value of the dollar.

A dollar is worth, what a dollar is worth. If we werent playing around with inflated dollars, we wouldnt have to worry about a war on he dollar at all.

Government is merely a shadow of business, and business is merely a shadow of the current society.

Our Society calls itself equal. We call ourselves One nation under God. Perhaps its time we act like it.

Man cannot serve both God and Money. Dont worry about your dollar.

Peace



[edit on 9-11-2006 by HIFIGUY]

[edit on 9-11-2006 by HIFIGUY]