The Central Asian Stans & the Caspian.

I was wondering what the opinions on the Central Asian stans were, particularly Uzbekistan.

THE underpaid scientist opens the fridge door and pulls out a Tupperware box containing vials of anthrax for me to inspect. Behind us a row of ancient refrigerators hold vast quantities of plague. The scientist pulls out a tray of diseases, then accidentally whacks the fragile glass vials as she puts them away. One of her colleagues gasps in fear. Everybody in the room freezes. Nobody dares to breathe.
Welcome to this former Soviet biological weapons laboratory in Kazakhstan, abandoned by Moscow when the USSR collapsed in 1991, and now a Plague Research Institute. Security is woefully inadequate, and the door to the main stock of biological nightmares is secured with a wax seal. Although they would struggle to stop intruders, at least scientists will know if stocks have been stolen after a break-in.

Even if the facility had better security, Alim Aikimbayev, Director of the Institute, did not exactly reassure me about the risk of determined terrorists obtaining biological weapons. �If I need to get a virus, as a scientist I can infect myself, then go outside, infect other people with the virus and then I can cure myself,� he said. �I could do this if I was paid enough.�

The above is an excerpt from a good article on central Asia from the Sunday Herald.

www.sundayherald.com...


The easy access to biological arms described above is prevalent across the Stans, as is the articles description of Kyrgyzstan�s sites of radioactive material which were simply dumped in pits by the Soviets. For terrorists after material for dirty bombs and biological armaments they are a dream. The border guards are on a pittance and are easily bribed.

Oh, and collectively they've got huge reserves of oil...


Uzbekistan is arguably the most troubled of all the central Asian 'stans. It is ruled by an authoritarian dictatorial government with a reprehensible human rights record under the leadership of Islam Karimov. The government does as it wishes and the introduction of bizarre laws is pretty much the norm. Thousands of government opponents have been jailed, tortured and executed.
Its unemployment, poverty and government repression have made it an ideal and growing location for terrorist recruitment and has seen a large growth in militant Islam. The people, however, are not entirely silent and there is good chance of eventual revolution, though in what state this would leave the country is anyone�s guess, especially in terms of terrorist activity and access to materials.

America has angered the people and helped the terrorist cause by their usual complicity. The U.S had been an outspoken opponent of the regime and its human rights abuses but all that changed at the end of 2001 when the Uzbek government allowed them to set up a base in the country. Now the State department is conspicuously silent, angering the people and driving even more into the hands of the terrorists.

I suppose that makes the U.S think the Uzbekistan government has done its part in the 'war on terrorism'.

To its people, the U.S has certainly done its part in helping the government.

Some general facts and stats on Uzbekistan.



[Edited on 20-10-2003 by kegs]

Doesnt Borat come from kazakhstan?

Just a little joke there.

Seems like those scientist could be easy pickings for terrorists though. I got the feeling we wont have to wait long for the next major attack on american soil

I've watched a documentary on TV a while ago about abandoned russian labs. THere was one somewhere in central Russia, cant remember anymore where exactly. Anways, for years nobody went there, no inspections at all, and when they finaly did it, they found it completely empty, no viruses, no equipment. The people in nearby village said that a few years ago, a group of people came and took everything. They threatened the people in the village, said if they call the police or military they will come back and kill everybody. One russian scientist said that another problem are secret experiments, nobody knows what kind of viruses and bacteria have been created in those labs. A lot of scientists who were working on those projects have disapeared, nobody knows if they have been killed or if they have a new employer now.
So, its pretty much f*cked up there, and nobody seems to care much about it.

These countries aren't really a US problem. They are ex Soviet states and still have close ties with Russia.
Russia uses them as a buffer between itself and the Islamic states which harbour militant Islamics - e.g Afghanistan. Because of their geographical situation Kazhakstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and the others are quite close to the war against Islamic extremism and therefore take extreme measures themselves. Their governments choose to rule their people with an iron fist as a way of keeping their populations in check and Russia is quite happy to allow them to do so.

A lot of the people who are in the governments of these countries are ex Soviet administrators and are therefore seemingly still running their systems along old Soviet style lines.

People also tend to forget that the ex Soviet countries have just as much (if not more) trouble with Islamic extremism than the West. By having undemocratic but friendly countries on it's border, Russia is safeguarding it's own interests.

The problem of insecure chemical laboratories is mainly due to the fact that there is no money to put safeguards into place - the economies of these countries have suffered tremendously since the downfall of the Eastern Bloc.
But any leakage or theft of chems is more likely to be used closer to home than it is against the West. The liklihood is that the people who would steal and use chemical weapons would do it much closer to home where their immediate problems lie.

The only country in the area that is likely to cause problems to the West is Uzbekistan. The government there is totally repressive and unlike some of the others, seems to have no intention whatsoever of reforming and is even hardening it's grip on it's people. The US has troops stationed there and could become a target through association.

by Leveller
The only country in the area that is likely to cause problems to the West is Uzbekistan. The government there is totally repressive and unlike some of the others, seems to have no intention whatsoever of reforming and is even hardening it's grip on it's people. The US has troops stationed there and could become a target through association.

Leveller, that's what I was saying. It's more than a case of target through association, to the people of Uzbekistan America has sacrificed its principals for the sake of a military base. It has seen a large rise in militant Islam and a new growth in groups that support al-Qaeda, as well as groups against the government.

From the same article:

...American political support for the authoritarian regimes in Central Asia is further fuelling anger and hatred of the West and driving more young men into the arms of new and established groups.

Heading south-west across Kyrgyzstan, we found an activist from the shadowy banned militant Islamic group Hizb-ut-Tahrir, which is becoming active across the whole region. �America will die,� he assured me.

�At the moment, we don�t have an atomic bomb in our hands, but we rely on Allah,� he said. �And if Allah wishes, we will have it.� Three times during our talk the militant said he wanted to martyr himself against the West.

You may not think these countries are a threat to the west, but their people certainly see the west as a threat to them, and they can get the resources and have the connections to carry out an attack. Perhaps not at present, but it's not far off.

This region could become a new arena in the war on terrorism in the not too distant future. The reasons I think it has little attention at present are obviously the Russian influence; we all know Russia wouldn't take too kindly to huge U.S activity on its doorstep.

There is also the fact that these countries, including the Caspian Sea itself, are host to the largest untapped oil reserves on the planet. This region has been brought up here many times in the past as one of the main reason for the �war on terror�; specifically the building of the pipelines. There is enough oil there to change the global balance of power. China, Russia, Europe and the U.S are all vying for drilling rights. So why no current action, either on the oil or terrorist front?
Perhaps they're just waiting to see who wins out...

Seems Uzbekistan is starting to come back into the Spotlight, and with good reason. The U.S base was paid for with $500 million of 'aid and rent payments' from the U.S. by the way.

I know this is in another thread; but we also have the withdrawal of the U.K's ambassador who was well known for his criticisim of Uzbekistan�s human rights record, but more importantly for his recent views on the U.S foreign policy in the region. The Guardian claims the foreign office complained of direct intimidation of the ambassador - "He was told that the next time he stepped away from the American line, he would lose his post," Claims their 'foreign office source'.

politics.guardian.co.uk...

The Guardian also has a good article taken from Lutz Kleveman's new book; �The New Great Game: Blood and Oil in Central Asia' The article describes what a lot of us have been saying about the games and battles for the Caspian region between the U.S, Russia and China who all have favoured routes for the oil pipelines through their territory. As has been said before Washington�s favoured route cuts through Afghanistan, which of course wouldn't be possible without the invasion. The article also claims that along with the payments to Uzbekistan for the military base, "The state department also quietly removed Uzbekistan from its annual list of countries where freedom of religion is under threat".

A couple of quotes from the article:

"I cannot think of a time when we have had a region emerge as suddenly to become as strategically significant as the Caspian," said Dick Cheney in a speech to oil industrialists in 1998. In May 2001, the US vice-president recommended in the national energy policy report that "the president makes energy security a priority of our trade and foreign policy", singling out the Caspian basin as a "rapidly growing new area of supply

Although the US state department acknowledges that Uzbek security forces use "torture as a routine investigation technique", Washington last year gave the Karimov regime $500m in aid and rent payments for the US air base in Chanabad. The state department also quietly removed Uzbekistan from its annual list of countries where freedom of religion is under threat. The British government seems to support Washington's policy, as Whitehall recently recalled its ambassador Craig Murray from Tashkent after he openly decried Uzbekistan's abysmal human rights record.

Worse is to come: disgusted with the US's cynical alliances with their corrupt and despotic rulers, the region's impoverished populaces increasingly embrace virulent anti-Americanism and militant Islam. As in Iraq, America's brazen energy imperialism in Central Asia jeopardises the few successes in the war on terror because the resentment it causes makes it ever easier for terrorist groups to recruit angry young men. It is all very well to pursue oil interests, but is it worth mortgaging our security to do so?

The Great New Game - The war on terror is being used as an excuse to further US energy interests in the Caspian.

Read it.

excellent thread...guess Uzbekistan and US should have seen these the potential for attacks a long time ago..
thanks kegs.

Thanks. That was a while back too, October. Reading over it again myself I'm wondering how to look at the recent attack. (see here) Should it be seen as solely another Al Queda type attack, or the start of a battle against the oppressive government, however brutal? The government themselves are saying it is an attempt to destabilise the country.
Hmm�

the govt of uzbekistan is/was trying to put the blame for the attacks on Hizb-ut-Tahrir, but the group which operates out of london is denying responsibility....

sounds familiar?

Indeed, but I'll wait a day or two before drawing conclusions on the responsibility factor. A choice between believing a terror group and a dictatorship isn't a good one, but usually after a couple of days there's a clearer picture. If it was a group of the people not connected to the terror groups but wanting to start a revolution that would be an interesting development...
Need to do some research on these Uzbek terror groups though.

[Edited on 29-3-2004 by kegs]

Originally posted by kegs
Should it be seen as solely another Al Queda type attack, or the start of a battle against the oppressive government, however brutal?

I reckon it's a bit of both.
The danger with Uzbekistan is that it could be seen as being a strong contender as the next Afghanistan.

The government is strangling it's people and it is possible that they will accept any other sort of regime - even up to and including a hardline Islamic one. I don't think it would be hard to find a support base for Al Qaeda there - any opponent of the present regime is going to be welcomed.

The problem will be further compounded by the government coming down even harder on it's population and you're going to end up with a vicious circle of reprisals and retaliations.

The Uzbek regime needs to find away to liberalise it's society whilst fighting Islamic extremism. I believe that if it fights fire with fire it's on to a loser.

There lies the threat to the west, leveller. Sympathy towards Al Qeda by the people means they will have aid in aquiring all those nasty germs. Bin Ladens buddies come in, sympathetic Muslims help them get thier hands on some flesh eating goodies, and BAM.

A while back I remeber an article about a man being boiled alive in oil in Uzbekistan for some crime he committed. What we have here is typical central Asian savagry that was common 1500 years ago, but is so out of place here.

It's not a threat you can avert by retreating to within your borders though.
Muslim extremists don't rest at the taking over of one state. They already had Afghanistan and came after you.

The answer lies in forcing the Uzbeks to adopt another line. Yes, I know you don't like getting involved in another country's politics but sometimes you have no choice.

The viruses in Uzbekistan are a quandary. Some of these things are particularily tricky to actually use as weapons. It would be far better for an incoming extremist regime to lay hands on Uzbekistans arsenal of conventional (and possibly nuclear) weapons.

Thanks for reminding me, leveller, about the nukes. I forgot about the Soviet era bases and nukes they more than likely still possess.

Retreating within our borders would be a better option. The problem with us getting involved in another countries internal politics, is that, can you trust the US to put a better govornment in? Hell we pretty much gave the Taliban afghanistan, and look where that got us.

Just updating some of the recent happenings in Uzbekistan.

Reports indicate mass arrests and widespread torture in the wake of the bombings. Opposition spokesmen put the arrests at around 800, with 400 �administrative detentions�.

Hundreds of people reportedly have been arrested or detained without being charged. Some say they have suffered severe beatings, electric shocks and anal rape with bottles.

They've been arresting everyone on their blacklist, and then some, especially young people," said Atanazar Aripov, the secretary-general of the outlawed Erk (Free) Party. "They're using the attacks as an excuse for this crackdown. They just want to repress democracy even more."

Aripov, a retired physicist, said reports of arrests and abuses continued to pour in. They're being compiled by workers from the Erk Party and the Party of Free Farmers.

He told the story of Surat Mirvaliev, a 31-year-old greenhouse attendant whom police accused of being a member of Hizb ut-Tahrir, a banned Muslim group. Mirvaliev's mother, who briefly saw him in jail, said he'd been beaten so badly about the head that "he was sitting in a corner, shaking and babbling like a madman."

In another case, a nursing mother, Khamida Karbaeva, told Human Rights Watch that she was detained April 3 by plainclothes officers. She said she'd been beaten by the officers; a week later, bruises were still obvious on her body.

Karbaeva said the officers, who'd been searching for her fugitive husband, pointed to a mattress in the corner of the interrogation room and threatened to rape her on it. They also said they would strip her, photograph her naked, then spread the pictures around her conservative Muslim neighborhood.

www.realcities.com...


An anti terrorism think tank set up this year in the region to analysis threats against China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan put the blame for the bombings on a group referred to as the �Jamoat� (Uzbek for �society�) and put the groups number at around 350-400, with a quarter having military training.

www.guardian.co.uk...


Meanwhile other groups are said to be regrouping and actively recruiting in the area:

Militant Islamist groups from Central Asia took heavy losses while fighting alongside the Taliban, but the remnants of those mini armies have proved remarkably resilient in recent months and now appear to be regrouping with new recruits, new strategies and old money.

No longer secure in Afghanistan, hundreds of Uzbek, Tajik and Chinese militants have recently returned to familiar sanctuaries back home. Analysts think they're retrenching at their former camps and hideouts, mostly in the rugged and unpoliced mountains of Tajikistan.

www.myrtlebeachonline.com...


The U.S state department is currently debating wither to continue supply �aid� to Uzbekistan, which as has been said is a crucial ally in the 'war on terror'. A decision is expected in a few weeks.

Unrelated, but the Uzbek government has also effectively shut down OSIAF-Uzbekistan, the countries largest private donor which has spent over US $22 million to aid reform in Uzbekistan, including some $3.7 million in 2003 on education, public health, arts and culture, and economic and small business support since its formation in 1996.

www.irinnews.org...


It�s a complicated situation in Uzbekistan, and the whole Caspian region. I�m pretty sure now the bombings were an act against the oppressive government, and on the one hand you can�t really blame them. They are however doing it in the name of Militant Islam and It seems very likely the people are being actively manipulated in going in this direction by outside Islamic groups. With dire poverty and oppression in a mainly Muslim country, any group that offers hope in any form will gain support and the militants know this. The other groups regrouping in the area could well use the Uzbek issue as a 'rallying cry' to join forces. Many people would like to see the Uzbek people kick this government out, including myself, but the spectre of an Islamic militant coup possibly creating another Taliban era Afghanistan is not a pretty picture. This paragraph from the above Guardian link makes me think the remnants of Afghan power and the real controllers of these factions may be planning exactly that:

When asked if the main leader was Tahir Yuldash - the political leader of the al-Qaida-allied Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, which found shelter in Afghanistan before Sept. 11, 2001 - Kasymov said investigators were still probing links between the Jamoat and the IMU.
Pakistani troops claimed to have injured Yuldash in anti-terrorism operations on the Afghan border last month before the Uzbekistan attacks. But Uzbek officials have been reluctant to draw a connection between the attacks and the IMU, a group they claim was decimated in the U.S.-led campaign in Afghanistan in late 2001.
However, the prosecutor-general has said the Jamoat was influenced by the Islamic Movement of Turkestan, a group that Kasymov said incorporated the IMU and extremists reaching from Kazakhstan to Uighur separatists from China's predominantly Muslim Xinjiang province. The IMU may also continue to exist, Kasymov said.

[Edited on 19-4-2004 by kegs]

thanks for the update kegs...anal rape with bottles and severe beatings to "suspected" muslims...hundreds of arrests? doesn't look good over there, if the U.S gets involved, I shudder to think of the reaction of the real terrorists in the area.

Thus Islam moves north and west as I have predicted will happen. It's just going to get worse around there in the coming years, with all the worst case scenerios you can think of. How can it not?