Former Putin advisor suggests Russian invasion of Ukraine

Russia have military ties to the Ukraine that will not be severed without conflict IMO. My question is where is this conflict leading, what will the response be internationally if any? Is this the match that lights the tinderbox? Russia's/Putin's true colours and intentions will be revealed soon, along with those of Merkel and Obama, this cannot and will not be a proxy war something's got to give and I don't think it can be Putin which leads me to the question as too who benefits from this maybe Russia from greater control of Ukraine or maybe the west is throwing the first stone by keeping Russia occupied and weakening their international presence....??

A former Putin adviser, Andrei Illarionov, has quoted unidentified Kremlin sources as saying a "solution" to the Ukrainian question must be found.

The options, he says, could include the "federalization" of Ukraine to establish control over eastern and southern regions or otherwise trying to control Ukrainian cities with large Russian-speaking populations.

Western observers are also worried by calls in Crimea for the region to again become Russian territory, nearly six decades after Kremlin leader Nikita Khrushchev redrew internal Soviet boundaries in order to gift the peninsula to Ukraine.

Although Moscow has not responded to those calls, Russia would have reasons to embrace Crimea - Moscow's Black Sea fleet is based in the Crimean port of Sevastopol.

Civil war or a coup in Ukraine might also threaten other Russian industrial interests in eastern Ukraine, such as factories which have contracts with the Russian military.

"We have close brotherly ties, unified aviation, space and machine-building industries ... some industries are threatened with collapse," said Russian Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov.

Evoking memories of World War Two, when Ukraine was overrun by Nazi Germany and drawing comparison with the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, he said: "We must do everything to support the patriotic forces."

Reuters

reply to post by larapa


If you click the "New Topics" tab you will see that there is already a thread started about this earlier today.

reply to post by snypwsd


This is a different article (the aforementioned thread did not mention a former Putin advisors opinion) and a different interpretation I am asking for opinions on the global implications not the regional , In a nutshell I am asking ATS about this in relation to the potential for this to start a world war .

One person's opinion and views do not equate to that nations policy.

I imagine the US would probably cry about Russia getting involved and make a huge deal about how unethical it would be. All the while Obama would not see the hypocrisy of such a stance. Russia will posture more causing the US to posture more and conspiracy theorists will have many field days with every terrible thing that happens and any outcome. The whole "civilized" world will bicker back and forth and finally the plebs will be put back in their place with happy little smiles because someone told them a convincing enough lie to make them feel as though something were achieved.

reply to post by Firefly_


Fair point, however the facts speak for themselves: Ukraine retains tight military relations with Russia, inherited from their common Soviet history. Common use of naval bases in Crimea and joint air defence efforts are the most intense branches of such cooperation. Crimea being the main port for Russia's black sea fleet...

reply to post by theyknowwhoyouare


This is the most probable outcome IMO if Russia are instigating all of this or the Ukraine's' people are actually doing this of their own accord... but my gut is telling me there is more to this than meets the eye: US/EU involvement, the west is definitely trying to steer this in their direction no doubt about that ( as is Russia) but were they (the west) the orchestrators?

larapa
reply to post by theyknowwhoyouare

 

This is the most probable outcome IMO if Russia are instigating all of this or the Ukraine's' people are actually doing this of their own accord... but my gut is telling me there is more to this than meets the eye: US/EU involvement, the west is definitely trying to steer this in their direction no doubt about that ( as is Russia) but were they (the west) the orchestrators?

edit on 20-2-2014 by larapa because: (no reason given)

Russia instigate a revolution that the USA supports?
Russia instigate a revolution against their guy in power who shied away from the EU favoring Russia instead?

There have been threads showing that US diplomats were trying to get power for the west and UN into Ukraine in 2011. They havn't stopped. That's not to say Russia can't use it to their advantage, but the propaganda would favor the US in that case.

reply to post by larapa


Georgia all over again?

Russia has already declared war against Ukraine by allowing Spetnatz forces to quell the protestors in Kiev.

One of them was caught by protestors and his double headed eagle insignia put on parade as proof.

This unfortunately will not quiten down.....things are going to get alot worse before theres any chance of it getting better.

Unfortunate thing is, for the last 1500 or so years, Ukraine has been invaded, overtaken but numerous groups....always fighting back in the end. Much blood has been shed over the past milenia on those steppes.

I dont care how much Russian citizens have moved to Ukraine, how much Russia has invested in Eastern Ukraine....Ukraine is Ukrainian, wether your Russian/Ukrainian or Pole or other.

Splitting the country in two is a recipe for continous war.

theyknowwhoyouare
I imagine the US would probably cry about Russia getting involved and make a huge deal about how unethical it would be. All the while Obama would not see the hypocrisy of such a stance. Russia will posture more causing the US to posture more and conspiracy theorists will have many field days with every terrible thing that happens and any outcome. The whole "civilized" world will bicker back and forth and finally the plebs will be put back in their place with happy little smiles because someone told them a convincing enough lie to make them feel as though something were achieved.

Obama will likely treat this the same way he treated their invasion of Georgia. He'll abide by the UN Security Council's decision on it ...

They'll invade after the Olympics wrap up.

First, my heart goes out to the people of Ukraine who have had more than their share of invasions and corrupt governments. To see snipers picking off their own people is disgusting and beyond any ounce of human understanding. I've been wondering for a little while now how the WW3 pre-war "them VS us" scenario would be developed, because up until now there has not been much of a huge enough deal to define those differences. I do think though that the Ukraine is it. I was surprised at the foreign minister's statement as well as the spin of the Ukrainian ambassador to Canada today. I really do hope I'm wrong about this and you can throw insults at me, but I feel it deep in my bones.

My heart goes out to the people of Ukraine who have had more than their share of invasions and corrupt governments.

What I'm not understanding is the complete blackout of news about the problems in South America. Is China involved there?

What south American problems are you referring to? I do agree with the idea of the lines defining side A and side B being blurred at least for the last 15 years. Although for a time side B was endless "the war on terror "...

Things do seem to be heating up in Ukraine though fleeing suggests limited control...:

Border guards at Donetsk airport in eastern Ukraine say they did not let the plane carrying President Yanukovich leave the country. Earlier, new Rada speaker Aleksandr Turchinov claimed that Viktor Yanukovich and several other high-ranking officials made an unsuccessful attempt to flee to Russia.

RT

That's what they might have done in the past when they were completely paranoid of the west invading them and I would be concerned they might go as far as considering nuclear war if they still had that mind set. However I think Russia has learned from its failings in the cold war and will simply let the US or EU have Ukraine if they want it. Ukraine is about to go bankrupt according to S&P and whoever is responsible for them will have to deal with that fallout or bail them out using their own finances.

If history is anything to go by the best strategy to deal with empires that overspend on military and constantly increase their global influence and control is to take care of you own affairs and finances while simply standing by and watching them overextend and collapse. This is definitely the strategy China has taken and if Russia learned anything from the failures of the Soviet Union they will adopt this strategy too.

www.businessinsider.com.au...

That place is in a right mess. And who ever does get it will have there work cut out. Putin will be keeping a close eye on it for sure

I really would love to see Russia roll in to Ukraine


Russia is in desperate need of a slap