California Earthquake?

I realize this thread opens me up to a snark fest, but I'm posting anyway for the "just in case" factor :-)

This is not my personal prediction, although I've had twitches for a CA earthquake going on a month now. I sip my coffee and flip through a bunch of sites for fun, and this morning a few things popped up in different places, so I'm putting them down here. Again, Just In Case....

This site posted this message on Friday:

Cracker box — horrific — California — in 4 minutes (4 days between the 27th and 29th)

Another message from Jan 4, 2014:

I had a vision of the United States map, California was colored yellow.
“There are two earthquakes.. they are still coming.. one small cracker coming very soon.. then a much larger one in a few hours.. Both are in the North California area.. nix on any specific city.. all the information is there.” – Spirits Voice

Thanks so ATS posts, I also started watching Suspicious Observers YouTube posts and today's news mentions the Earth facing corneal hole. Correct me if I'm wrong here gang, but I think SO's theory is that large earthquakes happen when there is an Earth facing corneal hole, so I'm taking this to mean the chances are not 100%, but wouldn't be surprising if there was a "big one" this week. Of course, there was just the 6.1 last night in Indonesia so maybe we're done for the week.

So I did a little poking around the Internet (yes, I know that looking for "prediction" info doesn't make the case in itself), and this has been up for yonks - they do like their dramatic graphics, but still:

Major Earthquake Prediction - California Region July 2013 - June 2014
M 7.0 - 8.0 = 75 % risk (highest risk December - March)​
M 7.0 - 7.4 = 35 % risk (highest risk December - March)
M 7.5 - 8.0 = 40 % risk (highest risk December - March)

There is also a site here, an Indian Engineer crunching numbers to attempt EQ predictions. On a December 2013 he listed a prediction of 29th January, 2013 - 6.7 but admittedly no location.

So for a decent prediction, we need a What - When - Where.

What => Earthquake, 6.+

When => Jan 27-29, 2013

Where => California, maybe northern

For fun, let's see what happens this week.....?

When the sun rocks over the equator to a certain point I think it increases the possibility of earthquakes because of it's influence on the stress of the earth. I know I said this kind of wrong, actually it is earth that is tidally locked to a certain point but I can't figure a way to actually say this correctly. Around February and October would seem to have the most overall events because of this prediction, including large storms.

In California, earthquakes have historically been more common in the months from November through April. I am not sure if the reason is known.

Only time will tell.

The magic about guessing is, as long someone is guessing, someone might some day be right.

I ofcause, hope you are wrong

after some news like this i could also make a prediction

Los Angeles Faces Bigger Earthquake Threat Than Anticipated, Study Confirms

reply to post by morefiber


Don't think so. The November through April window is half the year --- 6mos. If what you say is true there should be appreciably more EQ's in that window. Looking at a list of 70 EQ's from 1769 through 2013 46% fall May through October. What you are saying doesn't hold up.

This might be a coincidence, but "the big one" was in our papers this last week. People have been talking about how we're overdue for the big quake for decades, so it isn't new... but I just saw in the paper that some scientists discovered that certain parts of the west coast could shake up to 4x more violently because of the composition of earth above and below bedrock. That basically means that you add .4 to any magnitude. An 8.6 would feel like a 9. A 9 would feel like 9.4 etc.

I know it's coming, but it's such an imprecise science. It could happen today, or in another 100 years. I do try and keep prepared just in case though. I keep a pair of shoes next to my bed [so that I don't have to walk on broken glass] as well as a flash-light.

reply to post by ns9504


I just look at all the dates whereby, no predictions of EQs have been
made. Watch out for those dates most of all, because the nature of
EQs for the most part follow the old adage of, " When you least expect it?
Expect it".

Look, if we predict the big one for Cali often enough, it's bound to happen sooner or later, right?

Of course, there were two dead oarfish found out there, and they are supposed to be a harbinger of large earthquakes ...

reply to post by jtma508


JTMA,

My source for this is "Earthquake Country", by Robert L. Iacopi.
It is only for California, and of course only since records have been kept for the last 200 years or so.

Recorded Earthquakes in California 6.5 mag. and above

(Dates between November-April) - 30
(Dates between May-October) - 13

While it may not be statistically valid, and I did not claim it was, we have had over 2 times the number of large earthquakes in the "winter" months, than in the "summer" months. Thus leading to the saying "April is earthquake month" in California.

M

ketsuko
Look, if we predict the big one for Cali often enough, it's bound to happen sooner or later, right?

Of course, there were two dead oarfish found out there, and they are supposed to be a harbinger of large earthquakes ...

who knew

Can Oarfish Predict Earthquakes?

Wow, thanks everyone! Appreciate the constructive conversation and input. The oarfish article was interesting. I guess we just wait and see...

" Thats great, it starts with an earth quake......."

tick,tick. tick. tick...

ok, I''ll try not to be snarky...but...I live in California, and predicting earthquakes here is like predicting floods in the Midwest. you don't know when, or how severe they will be, but they will happen with 100% certainty.

reply to post by jimmyx


From the perspective of someone who lives in the Midwest, it's more accurate to say like predicting tornados in the Midwest, I think ... just sayin'.

You know there's always going to be some, you just never know where or how big or how many will be affected and in what ways by them. At least that's how the earthquakes in Cali strike me.

reply to post by ns9504


Ummm hate to tell you this but honey it's already 2014. Jan. 2013 was a year ago already. A typographical error perhaps. It lapse from it still being early in the year. Usually takes me til March to get settled on the correct year.

reply to post by morefiber

There are four seasons. April is spring. Redo the math using Dec-March, April -june, July-Sept.,Oct-Dec. Then see how that works out.
A chart I just looked at showed 6.9 or above listed And January had the most with four. April, Oct and Nov showed two and Aug and Sept showed none. The rest of the months showed one. This list is from 1800 to now but it did say that there were several 7 that for what ever reason were not on this chart. I don't know the reason for that.

AutumnWitch657
reply to post by ns9504

 

Ummm hate to tell you this but honey it's already 2014. Jan. 2013 was a year ago already. A typographical error perhaps. It lapse from it still being early in the year. Usually takes me til March to get settled on the correct year.

Yes, typographical error. Meant 2014, but tis moot anyway. Unless we say 2015 but that just puts off the inevitable silliness of EQ "predicting"!