China Plans To Seize South China Sea Island From Philippines, Says "Battle Will Be Restricted"

reply to post by ketsuko


China's flexing it's muscles, testing American resolve. You may even find they back down altogether on this. Nothings happened yet.

reply to post by EA006


Or it may just be like that released map of their intentions to bomb the West Coast. More sabre rattling.

Chinese big strategy is not to take one more island or even an entire country Philippines. China's big strategy is to won N1 place in the world. Will it attack USA at one point, as recently published war maps in Chinese newspapers show? Perhaps it is too dare plan at this stage, still.

Perhaps China will try to neutralize Japan in first instance. If the Spratly islands are a test ground, then indeed China may test the nerves of the world by taking several mini islands. But that hides the risk of a much bigger retaliation from let say Japan who also pretends for islands, and who may appear in "defense" of the Philippines. China-Japan war is set long ago since WW2. Those Asian nations never forget and they will fight again. But they are aware of the world public opinion as well so neither of them wants to start first.

The Chinese interests do not end with Japan however. China may look like going East, while at the same time prepares to go West. The warmest than ever Chinese-Pakistani relations include the highest in the world paved road thru Himalaya. China may transport massive troops to the Middle East in virtually no time. Pakistan is an ally and it is no invasion of anyone.

Of course the economics go nowhere in such a situation. But China is already aware it is steadily losing grounds ina declining Western economy and purchasing power. Soon nobody will buy the Chinese massive mountains of produced goods anyway. Unless China changes the strategic balance of force and invade, at least Japan and the Middle East. May be much more. On the back of new generation tech, such as Maglev and others, it might be worthy to abandon the outdated Chinese products that flood the world now and to strive for something much better. Will it succeed? I don't think China will rule the world, not until the other players, such as USA, Russia, others are on the playground.

2012newstart
Chinese big strategy is not to take one more island or even an entire country Philippines. China's big strategy is to won N1 place in the world. Will it attack USA at one point, as recently published war maps in Chinese newspapers show? Perhaps it is too dare plan at this stage, still.

Perhaps China will try to neutralize Japan in first instance. If the Spratly islands are a test ground, then indeed China may test the nerves of the world by taking several mini islands. But that hides the risk of a much bigger retaliation from let say Japan who also pretends for islands, and who may appear in "defense" of the Philippines. China-Japan war is set long ago since WW2. Those Asian nations never forget and they will fight again. But they are aware of the world public opinion as well so neither of them wants to start first.

The Chinese interests do not end with Japan however. China may look like going East, while at the same time prepares to go West. The warmest than ever Chinese-Pakistani relations include the highest in the world paved road thru Himalaya. China may transport massive troops to the Middle East in virtually no time. Pakistan is an ally and it is no invasion of anyone.

Of course the economics go nowhere in such a situation. But China is already aware it is steadily losing grounds ina declining Western economy and purchasing power. Soon nobody will buy the Chinese massive mountains of produced goods anyway. Unless China changes the strategic balance of force and invade, at least Japan and the Middle East. May be much more. On the back of new generation tech, such as Maglev and others, it might be worthy to abandon the outdated Chinese products that flood the world now and to strive for something much better. Will it succeed? I don't think China will rule the world, not until the other players, such as USA, Russia, others are on the playground.

Japan is looking to fight anybody they dont have the military to do so. Theirs is a defense force its not really set up to strike at others.

reply to post by dragonridr


If Japan is of no concern for China, then prepare to defend Hawaii in a WW2 scenario only with nuclear and hi tech weapons! rt.com... China has hypersonic delivery vehicle for ICBM.

Japan is quite well armed though. it possess several Hyuga class "helicopter carriers" en.wikipedia.org... that are nothing less than aircraft carriers only shorter than Nimitz class. Although Wikipedia lists 2, recently on ceremony Japanese navy received it 6th and biggest such class "destroyer". The name is for the purpose of the treaties because Japan is not supposed to have aircraft carrier. China has only one aircraft carrier that is also smaller than Nimitz (20 planes or so). I am not going to list all forces. China has to transport the ground forces somehow and has to destroy the Japanese Navy and air force beforehand. USA may decide to side (non nuclear) with Japan according to the treaties. China may win the war with Japan but on a too high cost. After that China won't be able to do much with another big player.

Going nuclear is an option for Japan who has stored plutonium for 10,000 warheads. Experts say it needs only weeks-months for Japan to compose a nuclear warhead fit for its existing rockets. That is a doomsday scenario for Japan but also for China.

On the scene may rise North Korea with some "preemptive" nuclear strikes exactly on Japan. Should that happen, China may stay and wait until Japan/USA fight North Korea, and then to go invade the devastated islands. If that is the Chinese real goal.

Let not forget India that is a silent tiger right now, piling up nukes and missiles. Perhaps India doesn't need to invade China, but it may be a serious competitor for the Middle East resources.

Will USA stay idle until the Asian tigers flex muscles? Obama said recently in Asia: we come here to stay. I think USA is there to take actions asap. May be not for one Spratly island, but surely in a bigger conflict.

reply to post by 2012newstart

The Chinese interests do not end with Japan however. China may look like going East, while at the same time prepares to go West. The warmest than ever Chinese-Pakistani relations include the highest in the world paved road thru Himalaya. China may transport massive troops to the Middle East in virtually no time. Pakistan is an ally and it is no invasion of anyone.

You bring up a very good point here. It's an issue I did a segment on for Out Of The Box Radio, on the ATS Radio Network. They aren't necessarily planning to just make the existing clap trap road 'passage' fit to used by something more than motorbike...although that is part of it.

Think lower...with tunneling and the intent to support high speed rail. That will link Western China with the Indian Ocean and just off the Iranian land border with the Pakistan/Chinese Port and Naval facilities at Gwadar. That gives China their direct maritime access out to the M.E. as a local hop and Africa (where they're making major inroads) as something other than epic from ports like Shanghai or even Hong Kong.

China is moving in several directions at once..... 3-Dimensional Chess.

reply to post by Wrabbit2000


That is very possible! I see China more as competitor in Middle East than as in the role of pre-WW2 Japan in Asia.

For the Middle East however there are several competitors. I already listed India that puts all the Middle East in range of its nuclear missiles.

US interests are clear, with multiple bases and carrier groups.

How about Russia? It fights terrorists in Chechnya and Dagestan. But it might turn out that those terrorists are indirectly connected to any Middle Eastern country that Russia plans to invade. Why should Russia go there? For the same reason as all the rest (that is not only the oil).

Russia and China now seem the biggest allies ever. But history knows changes. Including a Chinese attack on Soviet territory and the Soviet devastating response. Should USA is not on the scene so powerful as it is today, Russia and China will find themselves the biggest competitors on this planet. They should already realize that. Putin made the biggest drills ever on the Far East border with China. That doesn't mean they will start shooting tomorrow. But they will start for sure if their "common enemies" are defeated ever. Or who knows how the things will twist. Could it be possible Russia to find herself in the same boat as USA and Europe for any reason?

I am not a prophet, but it is possible Russia to decide to preempt both China and India in a surprise Middle Eastern drive. USA is no more in Iraq, Syria and Iran seem pacified at the moment. Russia may choose culprit for the terrorism on its own territory and position its forces there. Saudi Arabia as the best possibility. Will Russia do it? I don't know.

Who will rule Africa afterwards? Many scenarios are possible. Sure China wants it, as "2012" movie ended witht he Chinese-made arks that saved humanity settled in S. Africa.

Despite their thousands year old civilization, the dragons of China lack something and that is they do not accept or play according to the rules established in the rest of civilized world for thousands of years. They play according to their Asian rules, thinking it is the world that should retune to them, not the vice versus. Good for Asia, good when marketing new cars in China, but not good when going to match with Europe and USA on their controlled territory. It doesn't work.

China already experienced it with a sliding not increasing trade, paradoxically after the Europeans and Americans lifted all restrictions. Sure the world cannot buy endless "made in China" things. The world is not a colony of China's economy. If China wants to settle (economically or otherwise) in more Western positions, including the Middle East (part of former Roman empire) it should adopt more Western posture as well. "In Rome do as the Romans do" is a popular saying all the Chinese know from hi-school and are proud to tell it to foreigners. They need to do it as well. Especially if they intend to rule Rome and the rest of the world after all is over. I don't think that will happen, but they think so.

To go back to the Asian region. China cannot impose its will everywhere on every island only because it is the biggest country in the region. It is Asian understanding. It is not a One World Government attitude. Therefore, may be still no danger of a China-led NWO. Hope the Chinese understand that well. If they want to participate in the NWO (whatever you call it) they have to accept there are other powers no less important than they. And because they don't accept that, the collision course on world scale is almost imminent. Let mention again the Russian scenario. The 15,000 nukes and unknown space weaponry may not be intended only to defeat USA. America may turn to be a good ally to Russia with common cultural and historical ground to negotiate with.

The Chinese war maps with nukes on US cities actually tell USA: stay out of Asia, this is our backyard and we will deal with the problems in Asian way.

USA has defense treaties with many of the Asian countries, Philippines included. USA cannot bomb China preemptively, even less with nuclear weapons. Because of the entire doctrine, and because of the civilization issues that I talked above. But if China attacks first an ally, USA will have the full right to defend that ally by striking mainland China (hopefully non nuclear). It depends on the US resolve to intervene in Asia.

If instead China is left to measure strength with Japan, with certain involvement of North Korea at the time the war becomes nuclear, we will have a massive nuclear war in Asia region. Japan will answer, that should be certain. They have quite much history in that region and they showed what they could do. At the end we will have a moon landscape of much of the Asian countries. Is this what China wants to make? I doubt it. But on the other side it is where China goes with every next provocation of every next mini island. What matters at the end, even if Japan starts first? Japan already wanted a preemptive strike on North Korean nukes (perhaps built by Chinese know how). Japan will be the big loser taking into account its tiny territory. But Japan has shown it is ready to do quite a lot. China probably believes it could withstand the Japanese potential nukes with its big territory and underground facilities. What China doesn't seem to count in the equation, as I elaborate above, is that not only USA but also India and even Russia may see in China a worse case scenario of a winner. Not to mention China cannot invade USA without a full WW3 and large scale nuclear exchange first. We all hope that won't happen, not now. At one moment, China will be confined in its own restrictions, within the MAD doctrine if you will. If smart enough, it will turn West and will leave the Asian region intact. There are enough things to do West (Middle East, Africa) in a more peaceful and smart way.

2012newstart
reply to post by dragonridr

 

If Japan is of no concern for China, then prepare to defend Hawaii in a WW2 scenario only with nuclear and hi tech weapons! rt.com... China has hypersonic delivery vehicle for ICBM.

Japan is quite well armed though. it possess several Hyuga class "helicopter carriers" en.wikipedia.org... that are nothing less than aircraft carriers only shorter than Nimitz class. Although Wikipedia lists 2, recently on ceremony Japanese navy received it 6th and biggest such class "destroyer". The name is for the purpose of the treaties because Japan is not supposed to have aircraft carrier. China has only one aircraft carrier that is also smaller than Nimitz (20 planes or so). I am not going to list all forces. China has to transport the ground forces somehow and has to destroy the Japanese Navy and air force beforehand. USA may decide to side (non nuclear) with Japan according to the treaties. China may win the war with Japan but on a too high cost. After that China won't be able to do much with another big player.

Going nuclear is an option for Japan who has stored plutonium for 10,000 warheads. Experts say it needs only weeks-months for Japan to compose a nuclear warhead fit for its existing rockets. That is a doomsday scenario for Japan but also for China.

On the scene may rise North Korea with some "preemptive" nuclear strikes exactly on Japan. Should that happen, China may stay and wait until Japan/USA fight North Korea, and then to go invade the devastated islands. If that is the Chinese real goal.

Let not forget India that is a silent tiger right now, piling up nukes and missiles. Perhaps India doesn't need to invade China, but it may be a serious competitor for the Middle East resources.

Will USA stay idle until the Asian tigers flex muscles? Obama said recently in Asia: we come here to stay. I think USA is there to take actions asap. May be not for one Spratly island, but surely in a bigger conflict.

Japan doesnt have plutonium stockpiled. And they dont have any way to refine it. By all means they have the technology to build them but you would be talking 2 to 3 years. Because they would have to build a breeder reactor and the facilities to make a war head. You know there not as easy to make as you think they are or else everyone would do it.The entire Japanese defense force is set out to delay long enough for the Americans to get here.

reply to post by dragonridr

I don't know, may be you have more knowledge than me on the spot. What I read online by some specialists saying it is a matter of a month after decision has been made. We don't know if a secret decision has been made.
Surely America remains the main pillar of Japan's, Taiwan's, South Korea's and Phillipines' defense. Isn't it just too many in the face of a rising China?

In contrast to that scenario that I see going nuclear not by China but by North Korea that will use the momentum...

The other possibility that I could see to take place is China going massively in Pakistan and stationing its troops or "peaceful workers" in the Western desert provinces. Pakistan has little choice and may prefer to welcome the "liberator" China than to fear Indian annihilation. Pakistan already broke relations with USA to the point not to count on US defense. India is too big too powerful and in elaborated relations with both USA and Russia. (India finally got Russian aircraft carrier, Russian nuclear sub, supersonic cruise missile, not to count the jets). Pakistan has no chance alone against India other than to die with honor.

I also could see Russian might projected South of its borders, either moving through or bypassing Georgia, Azerbaijan, possibly Turkey, or bypassing them thru Caspian sea and Iran, reaching the emptied Iraq and ultimately projecting power and strikes on Saudi Arabian territory. (that could be done even now with ICBM hopefully conventional). The impossible peace deals with Syria and Iran are almost done thing. How is it possible at all, if not much bigger bargains are made behind scene. End time doomers would say, the fake peace have come. I don't think it is fake and it is peace at all.

reply to post by 2012newstart


The big carrot is nce the Chinese fire on an ally ,we owe them zero ,assets will be seized.

reply to post by dragonridr

As I understand you are either in Japan or anyway defend a more peaceful Japanese position. My respect to that.

Perhaps if there is a Chinese poster (hard to do with internet issues) he/she would defend China's official position. Let acknowledge that to this point official China did not say it will definitely take the island by force, as far as I know? They can still back off. It will be much more difficult to back off in the dispute with Japan. There were organized mass protests on the streets of China against Japanese policies on several occasions.

North Korea remains the most dangerous factor in the region. It already threatened, tested and showed it would go to war at any moment. Perhaps the moment will be the same China goes to war.

I don't know what is more dangerous for the wider world - a big conflict in Asia or a big conflict in the Middle East. Anyway, seems ME pacifies temporarily. Unless there are bloody Olympic games in Sochi. Then everything is possible, including USA to back up Russia in the war on terror that will definitely go outside Russian borders. Today's allies in terms of Russia-China-India or BRICS are not that sure at all. In a world where USA and Europe back Russian anti-terror war similar to what USA did in post 9/11 every new combination is possible. China may remain in isolation. New factors such as new space weapons may make the nukes obsolete...OK.

reply to post by cavtrooper7

I bet they don't think of that right now. They would swallow 1 bln dollar loss.


At the same time, may be I repeat myself but let say it more clear: China should be offered the possibility to PEACEFULLY expand its influence by help developing other countries to regions that are very poorly developed. What better example than Pakistan, one of the world's poorest country, 2nd most populous Muslim country, with warring tribes, and armed with nukes! Let the Chinese go there and do something good for themselves, for Pakistanis and for the world! Perhaps there are other countries in this world that need less corruption and more development, and that will benefit of a helpful Chinese influence. Why not Africa. When I watched Mandela's funeral, I couldn't stand the images of corrupt African leaders that we all know, who went to praise the freedom fighter. Something must be changed in the world until there is still time, don't you think so? Or the big war is the only way to change things? Two are needed for tango, said UN secretary general about the corruption in Africa. To have hungry people on one hand, and nuclear and space weapons on another, is not good for the planet.

I bet China WON'T TAKE those islands! Because it knows its interest, it is much bigger and it is not locked in those islands.

Should the US get into a war with China over this and it escalates, many have said the US wouldn't resort to using nukes unless used upon them. It seems everyone has forgotten their history. The USA is the only country to use nuclear weapons on another country so that glass ceiling has already been broken back in 1945.

Would China even try to invade the US, no, as the cost in man power would be tremendous. High powered hunting rifles don't use FMJ and any soldier getting hit with 180gr + hollow point does not survive. The whole world knows the firepower the US population has and invasion is not in the offering.

Should the US not intervene if China takes the island, you can count on them to make a run for the ME and the oil fields. The road through the Himalayas into the ME is already built and functional. No need for ships or planes, they can drive there. Pakistan has already granted them access through the country and would be hard to stop.

There is much more to this island than meets the eye.

reply to post by 2012newstart


So let me get this straight you think the United Nations ought to just let china take over third world countries? But the restriction is they have to build them up well i dont think the people of those countries would not like that much. What's going to happen is the same thing that happened last time. In 2012, the flagship BRP Gregorio del Pilar, the first acquired from the US, confronted Chinese ships on Scarborough Shoal, a small outcrop just off the coast of the country's main island of Luzon.The Chinese eventually gained control of the outcrop after Manila backed down. However, the government sought UN arbitration to settle the dispute, a move rejected by China.

reply to post by pstrron


Having looked through this thread again, i noticed that this situation has similarities with WW2.
Flex muscles, annex neighbors, prepare for counter-assault. China's pushing the same way Germany did.
Germany had the various case folders prepared. Everything was ready and they gambled the allies wouldn't do squat.

EA006
reply to post by pstrron

 

Having looked through this thread again, i noticed that this situation has similarities with WW2.
Flex muscles, annex neighbors, prepare for counter-assault. China's pushing the same way Germany did.
Germany had the various case folders prepared. Everything was ready and they gambled the allies wouldn't do squat.

Very true even allowed hitler to have poland at first it really did take a lot to start ww 2 . Britain was willing to look the other way and the US was an isolationist country much like we are becoming now.I hear Americans screaming how we should not be overseas and let them handle it.

elysiumfire
EA006:

Americans are young mate. They won't see what they don't want to.

They certainly seem to act with all the precocity of children. We have one claiming that the Chinese have no projection power, yet they can easily reach American cities with their nukes. They can certainly hit Japan. Then again, once the nukes fly, they fly from all nuclear-armed countries. Use them or lose them policy.

Historically, China has never been an all-out expansionist country, only regional, but they have grown into this oriental Leviathan of a dragon, capable of spitting fire and brimstone. Personally, I don't agree with China going after islands off the coast of the Philippines, but then as an Englishman, I have no room to speak while we still hold onto the Falklands.

edit on 12/1/14 by elysiumfire because: (no reason given)

Beautifuuly stated friend, your country has had some impirialistic days. Those days are over at present, it is America and the Chinese playing at empire right now.

Though in all honesty your dead wrong about nukes being force projection in any true sense of the phrase.

Nukes only work as force projection if your the only guy in the fight with them.

Because once you launch, your dead.

It is only a deterrent to another's nukes, not against conventional arms.

America at present has by factors the most powerful military force the world has ever seen.

Something like the next 23 most powerful navies in the world combined are almost its equivalent, but still not quite there.

The U.S. has not once sent soldiers into combat without both hands tied behind their backs since WWII.

In a war with china they would indeed " cry havoc, and let slip the dogs of war!!!!"

China has a zero percent chance of even defending their mainland against the full unleashed power of the U.S. military laviathon.

Listen to occamsrazor, he is speaking truthfully, we may not like the truth, but it is the truth, we must deal with it as best we can.

U.S. vs China= U.S. " ALL YOUR BASE ARE BELONG TO US!!!!" Game over, china loses.

oblvion

elysiumfire
EA006:

Americans are young mate. They won't see what they don't want to.

They certainly seem to act with all the precocity of children. We have one claiming that the Chinese have no projection power, yet they can easily reach American cities with their nukes. They can certainly hit Japan. Then again, once the nukes fly, they fly from all nuclear-armed countries. Use them or lose them policy.

Historically, China has never been an all-out expansionist country, only regional, but they have grown into this oriental Leviathan of a dragon, capable of spitting fire and brimstone. Personally, I don't agree with China going after islands off the coast of the Philippines, but then as an Englishman, I have no room to speak while we still hold onto the Falklands.

edit on 12/1/14 by elysiumfire because: (no reason given)

Beautifuuly stated friend, your country has had some impirialistic days. Those days are over at present, it is America and the Chinese playing at empire right now.

Though in all honesty your dead wrong about nukes being force projection in any true sense of the phrase.

Nukes only work as force projection if your the only guy in the fight with them.

Because once you launch, your dead.

It is only a deterrent to another's nukes, not against conventional arms.

America at present has by factors the most powerful military force the world has ever seen.

Something like the next 23 most powerful navies in the world combined are almost its equivalent, but still not quite there.

The U.S. has not once sent soldiers into combat without both hands tied behind their backs since WWII.

In a war with china they would indeed " cry havoc, and let slip the dogs of war!!!!"

China has a zero percent chance of even defending their mainland against the full unleashed power of the U.S. military laviathon.

Listen to occamsrazor, he is speaking truthfully, we may not like the truth, but it is the truth, we must deal with it as best we can.

U.S. vs China= U.S. " ALL YOUR BASE ARE BELONG TO US!!!!" Game over, china loses.

Britain's empire was different. 40 million people controlling swaths of the world on over-extended sea lines of supplies and communication. It did however have the most advanced military units and tactics at that time which enabled them to achieve this world domination.

The current U.S system ticks all the boxes with the full spectrum dominance idea. Be the best in all fields with overwhelming force achieved by massive R & D.

China's position is different again. The U.S spends the $$$, China steals the plans and tech. Less spending for the same effect. I will point out that i believe the U.S has some super-weapons, i also believe when the gloves are off all this will come into play. I don't agree with the idea that the U.S could simply sail over there and it'll be a mop-up job.

Bassago
reply to post by OccamsRazor04

 

Mexico will be PISSED and ensure all Chinese forces in Mexico are not a problem. It's hilarious you think a small force in Mexico will conquer mainland US. Hilarious.

Found this funny. I don't know how many Chinese troops are down in Mexico but unless it's a ton of them it's doubtful they'll even make it as far north as Austin.

I live in Wichita Falls Texas, northern east side of the state.

Texas is the last state the Chinese want to invade, at least most folks carry, many have at least one AR-15 . At least 1 in 6 is prior military, Texas has the most military personel of any state, the biggest military post on earth, and the regular folks love little more than a reason to prove Texas is not the place to " take a piss" as the Brits would put it.

I would love to see the reaction to a " Chinese" invasion.

The Chinese would only make this mistake once, as Texas unleashed the equivalent of " Chuck Norris" on them, and they regretted their mistake for at least 100 generations into the future.