Volcano Watch 2014

originally posted by: Nidwin
As the dyke and it's magma flow has now a "clear" path to pass by and the main push is more N-E where it runs into "resistance" the stress on the Askja Caldera has been releaved.

Or perhaps that stress could have also been caused by a magma resupply to Askja, rather than a mere stress redistribution. The dyke intrusion might have possibly tapped into an Askja caldera supply conduit, and partially restocked its chamber, in addition to heading N-E. In which case the dyke could still be feeding it slowly, even while most of it's still heading N-E away from it. If that's the case, then perhaps we'll see more seismicity at Askja in the coming days/weeks. If we do, and worse, if Askja erupts, then it would not be too farfetched to assume that this is what really happened.

And to further support what I am saying, one has to wonder why the "tremor" chart at Askja is so darn high, and seems to be staying there:
Askja chart

If the pressure were relieved, I'd be inclined to think that would have at least dropped some by now.

a reply to: TrueAmerican
What's the word? Has Bardarbunga erupted after the mag 5.2 this morning?
Or have the winds died down, allowing the ash/gas clouds from the fissure eruption to change direction and rise higher? I can't tell from the web cam how far away the plume is, at the ground.


Cam 1

www.ruv.is...

"These strong earthquakes are the consequence of magna streaming out of the chamber beneath the caldera", says Pall Einarsson, professor of geophysics at University of Iceland´s Institute of Earth Sciences. "The magma chamber is clearly subsiding, thus reacting to the considerable amount of magma that has been streaming out towards the dike intrusion," says Einarsson. "Analysis of these earthquakes supports this conclusion, as well as nearby GPS measurements of land deformation. We call this pressure changes in the roof of the magma chamber; in effect, the top of the volcano is sinking ever so slightly."

So does this mean more boom or less boom?

(Yeah I'm real scientific before coffee.)

M.

Have a look at this map, if this is correct the dyke is about 80 kilometers long, a possible fissure about 20 kilometers past Askja.

i.imgur.com...

I think the image I posted above must have been showing the cloud of sulfur dioxide.

Two recent NOAA images:

This image has a time stamp of 12:01 UTC today:


This one is from 13:38 UTC:


It looks like the winds have pulled the cloud to the West. Reading at the #holuhraun twitter page, scientists have been advised to wear gas masks. Also, no ash has been observed near the ground--what would be expected from a fissure eruption--lots of gas & no ash.


source page @ noaa

Of course i am not a scientist, but considering the incredible amount of magma, the length of the dyke and the depth, i would think it is more likely that it is not an outflow out of the chamber beneath the bardarbunga caldera, but an inflow of magma from the hotspot below Iceland.
The depressions within the bardarbunga caldera means a lot of molten ice and thus upward pressure of magma in my opinion.

Guys, I have a question. Can this fissure eruption evolve into a total collapse of the caldera and result in an eruption equivalent to a VEI 6 eruption?

a reply to: Ezio313

Worst case scenario as far as I can tell is something like the Laki event in 1873:

Laki or Lakagígar (Craters of Laki) is a volcanic fissure in the south of Iceland, not far from the canyon of Eldgjá and the small village Kirkjubæjarklaustur. Lakagígar is the correct name, as Laki mountain itself did not erupt, but fissures opened up on each side of it. Lakagígar is part of a volcanic system centered on the Grímsvötn volcano and including the Þórðarhyrna volcano. It lies between the glaciers of Mýrdalsjökull and Vatnajökull, in an area of fissures that run in a southwest to northeast direction.

The system erupted over an eight-month period between 1783 and 1784 from the Laki fissure and the adjoining Grímsvötn volcano, pouring out an estimated 14 km3 (3.4 cu mi) of basalt lava and clouds of poisonous hydrofluoric acid and sulfur dioxide compounds that killed over 50% of Iceland's livestock population, leading to a famine that killed approximately 25% of the island's human population.

The Laki eruption and its aftermath caused a drop in global temperatures, as sulfur dioxide was spewed into the Northern Hemisphere. This caused crop failures in Europe and may have caused droughts in India. The eruption has been estimated to have killed over six million people globally, making the eruption the deadliest in historical times

en.wikipedia.org...

Something like this could happen, but so far it has been pretty mellow.

originally posted by: Ezio313
Guys, I have a question. Can this fissure eruption evolve into a total collapse of the caldera and result in an eruption equivalent to a VEI 6 eruption?

Part of the quagmire with this volcano region, is that it is doing things that they have not seen before.
It is all new to them, so they are watching with anticipation much like the rest of us.

Oh they have ideas and theories but they, much like us, will not know what will happen until it happens.

Can it go VIE 6, (smaller or bigger) Yes.
Will it? No one knows yet.

M.

www.volcanodiscovery.com...

The fissure eruption is continuing at a stable level with little variation. A curtain of lava fountains up to 70 m high is being erupted above the fissure and pahoehohoe type lava flows are expanding to several kilometers around it, forming a growing flat lava flow field.
The effusion rate along the fissure vent has been estimated to be up to an impressive 1000 cubic meters per second.
Update from IMO this morning:
"No explosive activity is observed, the eruption remains an effusive lava eruption. Visual observation by webcam and low level volcanic tremor on seismometers do not show any obvious changes since evening.

M.

www.ruv.is...

Good close-ups from today.

M.

a reply to: Moshpet

perspective,,



wow.

pbs.twimg.com...

Cool image from today.

M.

a reply to: Moshpet
That is awesome! I can't even imagine being within 2 miles of all that raw power.

Evidently it has increased activity at the fissure, after dying down a bit today.
Check out the video in the link.

www.ruv.is...


M.

The (latest) eruption started around 04:00 GMT Sunday, on the same fissure which erupted Friday.
According to scientists, the latest eruption is roughly the same size as the one at Eyjafjallajokull in 2010, which grounded flights throughout northern Europe. However, no volcanic ash has been detected on radar

www.ruv.is...

So it's 6:45 in Iceland, dusk should be hitting around 8:pm ish there.
So with luck we should be able to see something on cam 1 Bardarbunga glow wise at least.
Lots of smoke and the wind direction sucketh

M.

www.timeanddate.com...

Sunrise Today: 6:10 AM↑ 69° East
Sunset Today: 8:44 PM↑ 291° Northwest

Moonrise Today: 3:09 PM↑ 132° Southeast
Moonset Today: 10:08 PM↑ 227° Southwest

ETA times

originally posted by: Nidwin
This is from the latest report on Icelandic Met office webpage

link en.vedur.is...

n the broader Askja region, most events were located at Herðubreiðartögl, the strongest event there was M2.9 at 02:56. This area is a quite common place for seismic activity, the activity now is not necessarily caused by increased stress due to the intrusion (the tip of the intrusion is about 25 km SW of this cluster). Askja volcano itself was seismically quiet last night.

I'm not convinced of this statement, especially the tip of the dyke.
I've been keeping an eye on the quakes around Askja and the pattern I see is that the dyke and it's magma flow is still on the move in a N-E direction and has past the Askja Caldera. The seismic activity seen past days in the Askja Caldera was simply the result of the stress caused by the dyke passing by and moving up N-E. As the dyke and it's magma flow has now a "clear" path to pass by and the main push is more N-E where it runs into "resistance" the stress on the Askja Caldera has been releaved.

this area, between Herdubreid cone (to the north) and Herdubreidartogl ridge (south of Herdubreid) is no stranger to earthquakes,
have a look here on this page, zoom each map into the spot and especially check out May 2014
In the area 19km x19km covering the aforementioned geographical features, I counted 2542 earthquake events for the month.
mag less than1=2072, mag1= 430, mag2=35, mag3=5, all at depths between 0.7 and 10km, most at 6-8km.
most of those occurred between the 3rd and the 7th May, 1069 of them, incl. all the M3's (all at Herdubreidartogl ridge) and also mag less than 1=764, mag1=272, mag2=28
the first M3 was a 3.48ML, the 17th event that day at 03/5 05:49,
then 88 events till the next one a 3.09ML @ 03/5 14:59,
then 110 events til the next one a 3.95ML@ 04/1:24,
then 61 to the next one a 3.14ML@ 04/05 7:54,
and that was it with another 679 events through till the end of the month,
mag less than M1=491, mag1=171, mag2=17 (4 above 25)
the next biggest quake during that time was a 2.93@06/05 12:59
so the point is ........... this wasn't a mainshock and aftershock series, it was a swarm, and likely volcanic in nature.


Bargarbunga wasn't exactly quiet in May either, activity mostly on the north side
I won't break that one down just now, but someone should, it may be relevant to the bigger picture, what has happened this August/Sept is nothing but a millisecond in the history of Icelands volcanic and seismic history. If I had the time I could break each month down with a summary on each volcano, a bit like they do at USGS Volcano Alert.

I haven't looked at the latest days data yet, but so far I stick by my earlier statement (about 5 pages back) that the activity at Herdubreid and Askja is not directly related to the dike from Bargarbunga
see graph with depths below
click image for larger version, opens in new tab/window

sorry to go on with numbers and such too much, but good research makes for a clearer overall picture on which to base an opinion.
From what I've read from the scientists, my call is as valid as theirs (they don't know either)


I'm not sure if IMO maybe already do reports on a weekly or monthly basis for each volcano, will check it out, they seem to break down the island into different areas East fjords, Hengill, Hofsjökull, Langjökull, Mýrdalsjökull, Mývatn, N-Atlantic, Reykjanes ridge, Reykjanes peninsula, Snæfellsnes, Southern Iceland, Tjörnes fracture zone, Vatnajökull, West fjords and Vestmannaeyjar with multiple volcanoes in each area

further to: muzzy

Iceland has about 130 volcanic mountains, of which 18 have erupted since the human settlement of circa 900 CE.
en.wikipedia.org...

aie-yie-yieee!!
maybe narrow that down the 44 shown on the bing version of the map on that page
depends on what I find in the IMO data, there could be other seismic hot spots that are not related to the volcanos too

I think it is going to be a beautiful night on the webcam.