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JimOberg
Where did 'delusions' pop up? Another 'straw man' that's irrelevant to the overwhelming majority of UFO reports, which involve misinterpretation and misperception.
And that process is not random, it's cultural based, as conjurers and other entertainers who elicit such perceptual malfunctions for a living, have always known. They can get MOST of an audience to misinterpret cues in unison.
You see, when visual stimuli are partial, that which you expect to see, with your brain filling in details from your own past experience. The process is automatic and subconscious, unless one is specifically trained to avoid it -- and few people ever are.
But 'delusions'? Forgive me for yawning.
I am very wary of viewpoints that depend on asserting that otherwise normal people are not seeing straight. Richard Dawkins relies heavily on this approach. After all, if they are seeing straight the game is up, the debunker must accept the evidence as given and there you have it. In other words, this undermining of people's perception, in such a wholesale manner, is a desperate attempt to dismiss evidence that cannot otherwise be put away by the debunker.
your consistent misuse of the word "delusion" is bizarre. It's actually hard to answer your question since I really can't tell what you are really meaning. Delusions and misperceptions are different things. Your link that you provided just confused the issue even more. A "delusion" is a persistent belief despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary. As in the classic looney toons guy who thinks he is Napoleon or someone who is paranoid and is usually associated with mental illness.
EnPassant
ZetaRediculian
EnPassant
Here's a whole bunch of delusional categories-
www.psychologytoday.com...
You lost me. Are we talking about the beliefs of people based on the misunderstanding of basic concepts and their inventions of new statistical maths?
You are complicating a very very simple thing. What are the chances that delusions could be so consistent across time, geographic borders and, most importantly, barriers that prevent people knowing about other's experiences?
Even more simply: how could a person have a similar delusion, within very limited parameters, that mirrors another's when there is no cross contamination?
A delusion is a belief held with strong conviction despite superior evidence to the contrary.[1] As a pathology, it is distinct from a belief based on false or incomplete information, confabulation, dogma, illusion, or other effects of perception.
but of real interest here is just the basic psych 101 stuff that is completely ignored or just made up
"My own present opinion, based on two years of careful study, is that UFOs are probably extraterrestrial devices engaged in something that might very tentatively be termed 'surveillance'."
-Dr James McDonald before Congress, 1968.
1967 - Ulric Neisser founded cognitive psychology.
Cognitive psychology is the study of mental processes such as "attention, language use, memory, perception, problem solving, and thinking.
1974 - Elizabeth Loftus began publishing papers on the malleability of human memory, the Misinformation Effect, and false memory syndrome and its relation to recovered memory therapy.
2013 - On April 2 U.S. President Barack Obama announced the 10-year BRAIN Initiative to map the activity of every neuron in the human brain.
JimOberg
reply to post by EnPassant
You've put your finger on the nub of the conflict -- anybody is free to just decide how accurate or inaccurate he wants witnesses to be in reporting what they were watching. There is no measured 'accuracy rate', it's all presumption for the convenience of whomever is doing the presuming.
This is why i think missle and space events can be SO critical to advancing UFO studies. They provide well defined visual stimuli and they induce well documented eyewitness reports. A comparison of perceptions made from various categories of stimuli -- launch plumes, post-orbiting fuel dumps, reentry fireballs, fireball swarms from booster breakups, and others -- can be gathered and then specific patterns of misperception identifed.
I've spent a lot of time doing this. None of the mainstream ufologists want anything to do with it, because the preliminary results show a striking range of consistent misperceptions that resemble in most if not all ways the standard perceptions of 'unsolved' UFO reports.
Can't have that. Better to keep 'assuming' witness performance quality, rather than test it, measure it, and risk having to modify your fundamental beliefs.
How well has this approach been working, really?
ZetaRediculian
reply to post by K-PAX-PROT
"My own present opinion, based on two years of careful study, is that UFOs are probably extraterrestrial devices engaged in something that might very tentatively be termed 'surveillance'."
-Dr James McDonald before Congress, 1968.
1967 - Ulric Neisser founded cognitive psychology.
en.wikipedia.org...
Cognitive psychology is the study of mental processes such as "attention, language use, memory, perception, problem solving, and thinking.
en.wikipedia.org...
So the field of study he would have needed to draw from didn't even exist when he started his 2 year study. Just to put things in perspective. How are his conclusions relevant today?
1974 - Elizabeth Loftus began publishing papers on the malleability of human memory, the Misinformation Effect, and false memory syndrome and its relation to recovered memory therapy.
2013 - On April 2 U.S. President Barack Obama announced the 10-year BRAIN Initiative to map the activity of every neuron in the human brain.
EnPassant
reply to post by ZetaRediculian
Yes, ufology is poisoned with this stuff but there is now enough information out there to make a strong case....
In his own introduction to the pirated English-language edition published by CUFOS, Dr. Richard Haines particularly stressed the importance of the Soviet study: "It should prove to become a standard reference on the library shelves of those who seek to identify the core identity of the anomalous atmospheric phenomena" - but in the two years following its publication, there is no evidence that even a single Western UFOlogist was ever really interested in finding the "core identity" (instead, they concentrated on the more attractive "statistical results").
The UFOs in the Soviet study were nearly all genuine, Haines insisted: there was a "lack of evidence for the reports being based on hallucinations or other misperceptions.. .The reports represent currently unknown phenomena, being completely different in nature in an 'overwhelming majority of cases' from known atmospheric optics effects or technical experiments in the atmosphere." As for the proportion of IFOs (such as hallucinations or false reports), "their percentage is small, so that they have little effect on the statistical properties of the sample under consideration." But as has been shown, these "false reports" actually must comprise an absolute majority of the cases and they thus clearly overwhelm the parameters of any "true UFO" residue. Haines had absolutely no justification for making the sanguine assertions which he placed in his foreword.
Hynek in turn again enthusiastically embraced the report at the Smithsonian UFO Symposium in Washington, D.C., in September 1980, where he stressed the qualifications and scientific credentials of the witnesses: "Forty two percent were made by scientific workers and engineers, and an amazing seven and a half percent were made by astronomers. ...It becomes very much harder, in fact from my personal viewpoint, impossible, to find a trivial solution for all UFO reports, which of course is the contention of the skeptics, if one weighs and considers the caliber of some of the witnesses."
In light of the realization that the most spectacular misperceptions of the FOBS pseudo-UFOs came from astronomers at the Kazan and Kislovodsk Observatories, Hynek's assertion is exposed as unjustified at best and self-delusion at worst. "Impossible" is what Hynek considered it to be for the Gindilis data to have trivial solutions - but most of it did so have.
(This point is worth pursuing a bit farther since it apparently is one of Hynek's most controversial and questionable attitudes towards UFOs. Later he said, "It was actually the nature and character of many of the witnesses I personally worked with over many years that finally caused me to change my mind about UFOs. As a scientist I resisted the evidence and felt impelled to seek a normal explanation at all costs." But with the Gindilis data, Hynek evidently concluded that the qualifications of the witnesses -- fellow astronomers in particular! -- relieved him of the responsibility to seek just such normal explanations (that is, to be a scientist). It was "impossible" for them to be mistaken - but they were, and he was, too. He did not have to wax so enthusiastic over the unverified cases, but he did, and now must face the consequences.)
An article jointly authored by Hynek and Haines appeared in the Journal of UFO Studies, volume II (1980). It stressed the "similarity of results" of the Soviet statistical study with other Western studies. Despite the concentration of 1967 cases (JEO: i.e., mostly IFOs!), "The essential agreement of the Soviet study with those made in other countries shows that this does not seem to have introduced a temporal bias." However, it turns out that this conclusion proved exactly the opposite of what Hynek and Haines thought it proved, to wit, that a statistically manipulated collection of IFO cases (which actually comprise the heart of the Gindilis Report) gives numerical results absolutely indistinguishable from similar manipulations of allegedly true-UFO cases. Ergo, the class of UFOs and the class of IFOs are really statistically indistinguishable, a conclusion which skeptics (and Allan Hendry) have been asserting all along
I saw a three-wheel scooter recently; two wheels in front. As a matter of fact I saw two of them on the same day. A few days later I read that they are now on sale in a certain outlet. There really are 3-wheel scooters. It was NOT a Volkswagen. THEY EXIST. They are here on our planet-
The cost of eggs will vary depending on the size and the brand of eggs. White eggs are cheaper than brown eggs and eggs comes small, medium, large and extra large which the prices starts about $1.39- $3.39 a dozen.
ZetaRediculian
reply to post by EnPassant
I found this to be of interest as well:
The cost of eggs will vary depending on the size and the brand of eggs. White eggs are cheaper than brown eggs and eggs comes small, medium, large and extra large which the prices starts about $1.39- $3.39 a dozen.
ZetaRediculian
reply to post by EnPassant
I saw a three-wheel scooter recently; two wheels in front. As a matter of fact I saw two of them on the same day. A few days later I read that they are now on sale in a certain outlet. There really are 3-wheel scooters. It was NOT a Volkswagen. THEY EXIST. They are here on our planet-
I found this to be of interest as well:
The cost of eggs will vary depending on the size and the brand of eggs. White eggs are cheaper than brown eggs and eggs comes small, medium, large and extra large which the prices starts about $1.39- $3.39 a dozen.
EnPassant
ZetaRediculian
reply to post by EnPassant
I saw a three-wheel scooter recently; two wheels in front. As a matter of fact I saw two of them on the same day. A few days later I read that they are now on sale in a certain outlet. There really are 3-wheel scooters. It was NOT a Volkswagen. THEY EXIST. They are here on our planet-
I found this to be of interest as well:
The cost of eggs will vary depending on the size and the brand of eggs. White eggs are cheaper than brown eggs and eggs comes small, medium, large and extra large which the prices starts about $1.39- $3.39 a dozen.
You are willfully ignoring the point which is that even fleeting glimpses(my sightings of the 3-wheeled scooters were only 1 or 2 seconds duration) are usually accurate. Most people see what they are looking at.
JimOberg
EnPassant
reply to post by ZetaRediculian
Yes, ufology is poisoned with this stuff but there is now enough information out there to make a strong case....
Wow, EP, these posts are awesomely written and very solid. I've read them twice and will do so again, and I urge everyone to do so. I've rarely seen the statistical argument put as strongly and succinctly. Thank you for putting in the time and effort.
You could well be right. There are indeed statistical techniques to handle noisy data that accepts and accommodates an unknown amount of garble in raw data.
My academic background is mathematics [although not statistics -- although I've studied enough to joke to convenience store clerks that I don't buy lottery tickets because "It's against my religion -- I'm a mathematician!"]. And my more practical career experience in engineering operations and reliability has overlain the theory with reality.
But on point: my studies of the existing UFO literature as it misused statistical analysis of SOVIET cases alerted me to the folly such an approach invariably led to.
My article was published thirty years ago. I urge you to read the whole thing in light of your own line of argument.
The Great Soviet UFO Coverup
By James E. Oberg
(First published in the MUFON UFO Journal, OCTOBER 1982
www.debunker.com...
In his own introduction to the pirated English-language edition published by CUFOS, Dr. Richard Haines particularly stressed the importance of the Soviet study: "It should prove to become a standard reference on the library shelves of those who seek to identify the core identity of the anomalous atmospheric phenomena" - but in the two years following its publication, there is no evidence that even a single Western UFOlogist was ever really interested in finding the "core identity" (instead, they concentrated on the more attractive "statistical results").
The UFOs in the Soviet study were nearly all genuine, Haines insisted: there was a "lack of evidence for the reports being based on hallucinations or other misperceptions.. .The reports represent currently unknown phenomena, being completely different in nature in an 'overwhelming majority of cases' from known atmospheric optics effects or technical experiments in the atmosphere." As for the proportion of IFOs (such as hallucinations or false reports), "their percentage is small, so that they have little effect on the statistical properties of the sample under consideration." But as has been shown, these "false reports" actually must comprise an absolute majority of the cases and they thus clearly overwhelm the parameters of any "true UFO" residue. Haines had absolutely no justification for making the sanguine assertions which he placed in his foreword.
Hynek in turn again enthusiastically embraced the report at the Smithsonian UFO Symposium in Washington, D.C., in September 1980, where he stressed the qualifications and scientific credentials of the witnesses: "Forty two percent were made by scientific workers and engineers, and an amazing seven and a half percent were made by astronomers. ...It becomes very much harder, in fact from my personal viewpoint, impossible, to find a trivial solution for all UFO reports, which of course is the contention of the skeptics, if one weighs and considers the caliber of some of the witnesses."
In light of the realization that the most spectacular misperceptions of the FOBS pseudo-UFOs came from astronomers at the Kazan and Kislovodsk Observatories, Hynek's assertion is exposed as unjustified at best and self-delusion at worst. "Impossible" is what Hynek considered it to be for the Gindilis data to have trivial solutions - but most of it did so have.
(This point is worth pursuing a bit farther since it apparently is one of Hynek's most controversial and questionable attitudes towards UFOs. Later he said, "It was actually the nature and character of many of the witnesses I personally worked with over many years that finally caused me to change my mind about UFOs. As a scientist I resisted the evidence and felt impelled to seek a normal explanation at all costs." But with the Gindilis data, Hynek evidently concluded that the qualifications of the witnesses -- fellow astronomers in particular! -- relieved him of the responsibility to seek just such normal explanations (that is, to be a scientist). It was "impossible" for them to be mistaken - but they were, and he was, too. He did not have to wax so enthusiastic over the unverified cases, but he did, and now must face the consequences.)
An article jointly authored by Hynek and Haines appeared in the Journal of UFO Studies, volume II (1980). It stressed the "similarity of results" of the Soviet statistical study with other Western studies. Despite the concentration of 1967 cases (JEO: i.e., mostly IFOs!), "The essential agreement of the Soviet study with those made in other countries shows that this does not seem to have introduced a temporal bias." However, it turns out that this conclusion proved exactly the opposite of what Hynek and Haines thought it proved, to wit, that a statistically manipulated collection of IFO cases (which actually comprise the heart of the Gindilis Report) gives numerical results absolutely indistinguishable from similar manipulations of allegedly true-UFO cases. Ergo, the class of UFOs and the class of IFOs are really statistically indistinguishable, a conclusion which skeptics (and Allan Hendry) have been asserting all along
I wanted to show that the 'IFO core' of the reports -- top secret test flights of a space-to-Earth nuclear warhead delivery system -- dominated any other potential 'signal', a view that went unrecognized at the time -- and still does to this day -- in ufology.edit on 10-9-2013 by JimOberg because: add ex text
ZetaRediculian
reply to post by K-PAX-PROT
"My own present opinion, based on two years of careful study, is that UFOs are probably extraterrestrial devices engaged in something that might very tentatively be termed 'surveillance'."
-Dr James McDonald before Congress, 1968.
1967 - Ulric Neisser founded cognitive psychology.
en.wikipedia.org...
Cognitive psychology is the study of mental processes such as "attention, language use, memory, perception, problem solving, and thinking.
en.wikipedia.org...
So the field of study he would have needed to draw from didn't even exist when he started his 2 year study. Just to put things in perspective. How are his conclusions relevant today?
1974 - Elizabeth Loftus began publishing papers on the malleability of human memory, the Misinformation Effect, and false memory syndrome and its relation to recovered memory therapy.
2013 - On April 2 U.S. President Barack Obama announced the 10-year BRAIN Initiative to map the activity of every neuron in the human brain.