Occam's Razor and Ufology.

Over the last few years we have argued over the validity of the subject and I think now we are ready for some clarity.
Occam's Razor means that the simplest answer is normally the correct one so lets apply that to ufology with three issues.

If you take all the national polls into consideration the statistics work out at 5-7% of people say they have seen a ufo and 10-15% know someone who has.

There are 3,500-5,000 UFO trace evidence cases.

NARCAP (National Aviation Reporting Center on Anomalous Phenomenon) reports over 3,500 documented pilot sightings.

Now the most important thing is what is more likely .
1. None of the above is true,
2.Some of the above is valid.


The way I see it is we only need ONE case out of all the thousands through history to be true.

reply to post by CrashRetrieval

Now the most important thing is what is more likely .
1. None of the above is true,
2.Some of the above is valid.

2.Some of the above is valid , but that doesn't mean that any of the above are Extraterrestrial .
Its a sad truth that of all the sightings or trace evidence cases not one can be said to be anything from another planet .

1. Any of them could be true.
2. All of them could be true.
3. None of them could be true.

All you have to do is account for the various ways in which something can be misidentified and do the math.
What we don't have is any confirmed aliens. Anywhere. We don't know they exist.

There is no way to count on any of them being true. None.

Originally posted by gortex
reply to post by CrashRetrieval

 

Now the most important thing is what is more likely .
1. None of the above is true,
2.Some of the above is valid.

2.Some of the above is valid , but that doesn't mean that any of the above are Extraterrestrial .
Its a sad truth that of all the sightings or trace evidence cases not one can be said to be anything from another planet .

You are correct but my point was to address the people who dismiss the phenomenon regardless of its origin.

reply to post by CrashRetrieval

We have condemned people to death on less evidence than has been presented on Ufo's. people will accept a person is guilty on just one video or eye witness account. Wow, that is really messed up.

reply to post by StarsInDust


Alternatively we could make some guy in some Hollywood makeup special effects costume our new supreme world leader, only to find out later that he was only just another human in a suit after all.

Do you want aliens so badly you'll take any back alley sale you come across regardless of authenticity?
... or, would you rather have actual real certified verified checked and re-checked confirmed and stamped with the highest of authoritative expert approval aliens?

I can see Hollywood aliens by going to the movies.
For the real thing, I'll accept nothing but the highest of prejudice in confirming credentials.

What is it with people's overwhelming propensity for a desire to grasp at the absolute lowest hanging fruit available?

reply to post by CrashRetrieval


What is the phenomena ?
Is it peoples misconceptions of what they think they saw or is it Government agencies manipulating people for their own ends , I'm no longer convinced there is a real phenomenon behind UFOs just smoke and mirrors coupled with peoples willingness to believe in Aliens and UFOs fueled by those with a vested interest in propagating myths for profit.

Originally posted by Druscilla
reply to post by StarsInDust

 

Alternatively we could make some guy in some Hollywood makeup special effects costume our new supreme world leader, only to find out later that he was only just another human in a suit after all.

Do you want aliens so badly you'll take any back alley sale you come across regardless of authenticity?
... or, would you rather have actual real certified verified checked and re-checked confirmed and stamped with the highest of authoritative expert approval aliens?

I can see Hollywood aliens by going to the movies.
For the real thing, I'll accept nothing but the highest of prejudice in confirming credentials.

What is it with people's overwhelming propensity for a desire to grasp at the absolute lowest hanging fruit available?

edit on 1-7-2013 by Druscilla because: (no reason given)

As l have said before all l am saying is that the phenomenon exists l am not claiming to have proof of its origin.

Originally posted by StarsInDust
reply to post by CrashRetrieval

 

We have condemned people to death on less evidence than has been presented on Ufo's. people will accept a person is guilty on just one video or eye witness account. Wow, that is really messed up.

Of the people condemned to death, how many were innocent? I'm not sure what the point is with this analogy. We know people commit crimes. We know people are convicted wrongfully. How does this relate that something is an alien craft or not? A better analogy would be the Salem witch trials where people were convicted of being witches.

In order for the odds to be 1:x, you need to have the 1 first. This means, we would need absolute confirmation of a life form existing (or previously existed) external to the Earth. Currently, there is 0 absolute confirmation. That makes the odds (at this point in time) 0:x. Therefore, chances are 0 for the possibility of alien visitations to Earth.

Do I believe there are life forms external to the Earth, yes, I do. However, a belief is not proof, and does not change the odds (unfortunately).

If with one of our space probe exploring our solar system or Kepler (or other telescopes) find incontrovertible evidence of life external to the Earth, then the odds again become 1:x. Only THEN will we have the real possibility that Earth is being visited by a life form external to the Earth, and we as a species will be forever changed.

Until then, odds are 0, that is Occam's Law here because that is the simplest answer.

Carl Sagan was a great one to apply Occam's Razor philosophy--and that is what it is, a philosophy to UFOs.
In fact, it was and is the cardinal tactic widely used by scientist and especially the US government (and others) to attack, demean and deny the existence of UFOs manned by ETs.

The fallacy of using Occam's Razor is that it was intended to explain natural phenomena.
Once you allow the hand of intelligence, free will, if you will, to create a phenomena, then Occam's Razor is worthless.

You can't get a reasonable answer because the correct interpretation must come from outside of simple, natural explanations. Occam's Razor is a handy tool created by scientists as an excuse for ignorance and denial of the subject matter. No where is that better proven that with the UFO topic itself.