Britain gets a warning to stay in EU by US?

reply to post by rock427


Although export based models have their problems they do have some advantages. The population learns to innovate through manufacturing and hones skills for competition. It also keeps the median wages high unlike the US where our super rich hold most of the wealth.

The fed gives money to the banks to lend. There is more debt than money. This is called cyclic debt. Meaning all the money we have cannot pay our debt. We pay other countries off by printing more dollars through the use of petro-dollar. There will always be a net positive outflow of dollars. This is a dollar tax on the rest of the world. Example China wants to buy oil, they buy US dollars(in actuality they use their reserves that we paid in printed cash and promissory notes) that we printed. They go to the Saudis and give them the dollars. Why should 2 sovereign nations be forced to use the dollar? This creates a method of taxation all over the world.

Now I know your outlook on BRIC is not that positive however we are still talking about 3 billion people with about half of them starting to be in the middle class. Why would they let us impose a taxation on them by force once their economies start becoming bigger?

Our problems are systemic(this time I mean the US). We are breeding a lazy population who likes welfare. We do not produce enough engineers, scientists. Our education standards are bad (programs like no child left behind). The UK is following a similar model (without the advantage of the dollar). Long term outlooks for both nations are not positive unless we can change things around. We bicker about gay rights, womens health instead of development. We need investment in high tech manufacturing, space, sustainable heath care none of which are happening. Through globalization we have access to these big markets however the price we paid is shorting our middle class. Our corporations long term will be fine however our population will compete on a stage where they are too expensive, not innovative enough, not enough skilled manpower.

Originally posted by an0nThinker
Although export based models have their problems they do have some advantages. The population learns to innovate through manufacturing and hones skills for competition.

I disagree, if we look at nations like China. There are 100 million people employed in China, where the manufacturing output is roughly equal to that of the United States. Yet the US has roughly 12 million people employed in the manufacturing industry. This means that it takes roughly 11 Chinese workers to equal the productivity of 1 US worker.

Additionally, manufacturers in the United States are the most productive in the world. The US has by far and away the most fortune 500 companies of any country out there (132, which is twice the amount of the second largest country, China; which really has nothing more than state owned conglomerates.)

If we look at expenditures in R&D, as well as Scientist and Engineers by country, the US spends way more ($400+ billion annually. The second largest spender is China at $160 billion) and equates to at least one-quarter of all the worlds Scientist and Engineers...And don't get me started on how dominate US higher education is compared to the rest of the world...

It also keeps the median wages high unlike the US where our super rich hold most of the wealth.

Please tell me you're not referring to the godawful video making the rounds where it literally pulls numbers out of a hat...It is true that the US has a wealth gap. But what country doesn't?

If you bothered to check the source for the median income figure I provided; the US has the highest median income of any country. We also have the highest disposable wage of any country. I also hope you understand the difference between 'wealth' and 'income'.

The fed gives money to the banks to lend. There is more debt than money. This is called cyclic debt. Meaning all the money we have cannot pay our debt. We pay other countries off by printing more dollars through the use of petro-dollar. There will always be a net positive outflow of dollars. This is a dollar tax on the rest of the world. Example China wants to buy oil, they buy US dollars(in actuality they use their reserves that we paid in printed cash and promissory notes) that we printed. They go to the Saudis and give them the dollars. Why should 2 sovereign nations be forced to use the dollar? This creates a method of taxation all over the world.

Lets get a few things straight here: The debt is a cumulative factor; whereas GDP is an annual measure. To get a better understanding of this nations finances, you would have to look at overall financial assets of $90 trillion (some estimates have US national assets as high as $200-$400 Trillion) and subtract the debt outstanding from that. This is how you gauge a nations financial position long-term. That along with an annual GDP of $16+trillion every year, makes the greenback the preferred currency. We also have a relatively stable system of governance contrast to the rest of the world. This in turn makes the US a good investment.

Now I know your outlook on BRIC is not that positive however we are still talking about 3 billion people with about half of them starting to be in the middle class. Why would they let us impose a taxation on them by force once their economies start becoming bigger?

Because their economies aren't going to 'become bigger'. The BRIC's future relies on an overly optimistic view on China...(and India to a much lesser degree) which as I already pointed out, isn't going to end well for the BRIC's. China ( the biggest player) is basically Japan version 2.0 in how they are building their economy. They depend entirely too much on fixed investment led growth, which defies free market principals on its most basic premise! You don't build that which you cannot sell. What happens when you do? You face massive overcapacity and a non-performing loan problem.

Also interesting is how China counts GDP. They count GDP as "before market" instead of "after market". Which means that if they build an entire ghost town full of EMPTY new skyscrapers and apartments, but no one buys 6 years after they've been completed...this is still measured as GDP growth in China. Here in the West, we don't consider this actual growth until after market...meaning the sales transaction has been completed. This is how real growth is measured. By sustainable economic activity. As Ju Jintao explained: "Chinas growth is unsustainable, lopsided, and unblanaced." In order to sustain current growth in China, the country is reinvesting literally half of its GDP just to meet the current (failing) growth targets...tells you something about the China 'miracle'...

Continued

Our problems are systemic(this time I mean the US). We are breeding a lazy population who likes welfare. We do not produce enough engineers, scientists. Our education standards are bad (programs like no child left behind). The UK is following a similar model (without the advantage of the dollar). Long term outlooks for both nations are not positive unless we can change things around. We bicker about gay rights, womens health instead of development. We need investment in high tech manufacturing, space, sustainable heath care none of which are happening. Through globalization we have access to these big markets however the price we paid is shorting our middle class. Our corporations long term will be fine however our population will compete on a stage where they are too expensive, not innovative enough, not enough skilled manpower.

Well, a lot of that is subjective. Of course we have our issues. But I think you underestimate the issues of other countries as well. The BRIC's for instance; have several issues. China alone more than can be named in the allotted characters I have left. A demographic imbalance (60 million less females than males) a rapidly aging population (the population will be older than the US median age by no later than the 2030's), no social safety net, environmental degradation (which will cost the country an estimated 1-3% on future annualized growth) massive debt, a suspect shadow banking industry that rivals the public one, wealth inequality that makes the US look equal, slowing urbanization rate, lackluster culture of innovation, less freedoms, etc. etc. etc.

I've often referred to the US as the shiniest turd on top of turd mountain. I've seen nothing to change that view.

Here is a good write-up explaining why the BRIC era is over. Also, funny how these economies are 'booming' yet their stock markets have continually unperformed...

reply to post by an0nThinker


Some pretty tough choices are being made to change that though. Not enough and not soon enough but it's happening and people are mad about it. That's why happens when become a nation full of dependants though. It happening everywhere. The choices that are being made and still need to be made are not popular ones but will be required just the same to get back in the saddle and I believe that Britain can do it and might. Just might but who knows with the state of affairs everywhere right now.

EDIT TO ADD: I think Cameron is throwing himself under the bus to prove a point to the whole lot both in the UK and in the EU and he is not alone but just the one we see. It has to start somewhere.

reply to post by rock427


Firstly, I think we veered a little off topic. We both agree the UK is not the empire anymore. I also agree that we spend more on R&D than any country. Also agreed that we have some of best universities in the world by far. I checked and you are right about the median income.

I don't agree about about the assets. Would we sell- lets say all the assets of California, or Oregon or North Dakota to pay off our debts? Who would have the money to buy trillion dollar assets? We are driving growth by economic easing. We are spending ourselves into minimal growth. The fed prints promissory notes and sells it to itself in this bizarre ponzi scheme. You see we aren't really much different than the chinese even though our methods are different. We do not have enough money to make the government run except to print dollars. The Chinese and other big US debt holding countries have stopped buying US debt by large. Our correction is almost as imminent as the Chinese if we don't stop spending the money we don't have.

You say that the greenback is the preferred currency that is also true. However, the reasons are lot more complicated. The US is a major part of the world economy. No one- The Chinese, Europeans or the Indians want to see it fail. Printing currency brings huge inflation (for example Indonesia or Zimbabwe) and taxes everyone that holds the currency (the total sum of the system is same except more tenders to trade, so everyones tender is worth less). The US escapes these conditions by always having a demand for the dollar. This demand for a net positive outflow comes from being the de facto exchange currency of the world. The world sees us abusing our power, we make unnecessary wars, try changing regimes when they stop being our friends or using the dollar, and bully smaller countries. How long do you think our hegemony will continue? Countries already are making bilateral trade agreements to swap in local currencies.

I am not totally pessimistic about the situation. We could easily reduce spending enough not to trigger another recession, we could stop printing money, pass a real budget. We need to reduce spending on health care by pushing healthier lifestyles. Social security needs reform. We need to make it harder to be on benefits. All the leftover money can help us maintain our technological lead, spend on next generation infrastructure, spend on education and vocational training. All this would require real reform- our congress is paid of by huge corporations abusing their first amendment rights in this legalized bribing system called lobbying. About the BRICs, I understand that you think they are done. I've been hearing the same thing for about 5 years now. When they all have 2-3% growth, or negative growth for a few years then I'll reconsider my stance. Either way lets agree to disagree..

reply to post by an0nThinker


About the BRIC's...Look at the growth rate. Take India for example. Today India just published figures that their economy was growing 4.8%! Russia is growing at about 3%, South Africa at 2%, And Brazil at about 1%. China is the only nation growing the highest, and that is a result of easy credit and fixed investment. Real Growth in China is likely around 3-4% once you factor out non-performing fixed investments.But even if we take Chinas growth rate at face value, the BRIC's are only growing collectively at about 5%. Compare this with 8-10% a decade earlier...

Now people are forecasting the MIST (and to a lesser degree, N-11) to be where to invest now. Capital outflows are starting to happen from the BRICs to the MIST. The MIST consists of Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, and Turkey. These nations all have a better future outlook than the BRICs, though unlikely to match the BRICs overall economic output anytime soon. However, per capita speaking, they already blow them out of the water!

The UK can ignore any threat that comes from the Obama administration. Obama hasn't followed through on any threat or promise that he has made. He truly is what the Chinese call a paper tiger. Of course, Obama really does have a knack of teeing off our allies and friends, and bowing down to our adversaries. The man is spineless, clueless, and brainless, truly a pathetic individual. The UK has some smart leaders. They'll do the right thing, regardless of Obama's rantings. Obama has become a joke to 99% of the world's leaders.