Herman's election prediction.

I'm gonna make a prediction on the election based off of what I've heard and seen.

I'm guessing that after a whole lot of arguing, re-counting from the democrats, and threats from lawyers from both sides, Kerry will win in a slight lead. Bush's numbers aren't good for an incombent, and there has been SO MUCH anti-Bush propaganda within the last month. In Arizona, there was an anti-Bush message that somehow got distributed to many homes here. Someone traced that call, and guess who put out the messages? Someone from the Arizona Republic....who would have thought?

Anyway, I really won't be all that mad if Kerry wins. I'll be disappointed, and a little afraid, but not much will change for me. I still really hope Bush wins, but I guess Kerry's not as bad as....Hillary!

Anyone else have any predictions or thoughts on the matter?

I think Bush will win with over 300 electoral votes!

I really feel that Kerry has a shot but don't want to hedge my bets...however I wanted to make another point about something you said in your post:

I really don't care who you want to win, that's your choice of course, but why do you and others keep calling it negative propaganda against Bush? Has there not been an equal amount directed at Kerry?

I'm just curious what you call negative propaganda where Bush is concerned. In some cases I would call it that but in other cases there are legitimate negatives against Bush, his past and current presidency included. Same goes for Kerry.

That's one thing that has baffled me about Bush. Its like he has never done anything wrong or made mistakes at all. His supporters are the most blind observers of his record I have ever seen in my entire life regarding any candidate. I can gladly count off the things I find negative about Kerry while still supporting his candidacy but I would say the only true propaganda that was floating around about his was the hype regarding the Swift Boat Veterans. His flip flopping, voting record, etc. although a matter of perspective I felt were fair game.

Why do Bush supporters so blindly defend him and turn any criticism lodged against him as criminal or propaganda? Truly baffles me and scares me when hero worship of this kind gets so strong. Even my Republican father is disgusted at some of the things Bush has done in his past and present while still planning to vote for him.

[edit on 113030p://111 by Weller]

Herman,

I'm not trying to steal, or detract from your thread here. But we aren't allowed to post any more threads on the election. So we have to post, on existing threads. This was the closest thread I could find, for what I have to say about the election. I hope that you don't mind. :-)

I would be disapointed with myself if I didn't post SOMETHING before the election tomorrow. So here is my two cents. NOW is the time to create a change. Not 4 or 8 years from now. Right now is the perfect time to do it. As a matter of fact IMO, it is the perfect time. I do not believe the scientific polls for a second. There is no way, that George Bush is running neck and neck with Kerry right now. I know Bush die hards, are going to disagree with me. But the facts remain. He has ticked off alot of people in his own party. The gay and lesbian crowd. The fiscal conservatives. Their are actually Republicans, that are against the Iraq war believe it or not.

Combine that, with the energized Democratic party. Due to the last election. All of the people, that have become of legal age to vote. Naturalized citizens, you name it. There are alot more people that are eligable to vote, this time around. The message got through last election, that every vote counts. People are taking this one seriously. As evidenced by the voter registrations. There has also been a high voter turn out for early voting, in every state that I have heard reported. Weither republicans, and the "liberal media" want to admit it or not. Everything for George Bush right now, is not looking good at all. The political experts say, that a high voter turnout favors Kerry. I believe they are right. So I myself will be surprised, if Kerry doesn't win by at least 8%, of the popular vote.

Now that I've probably offended the Bush supporters. I have to be fair here, because there is another side to this coin. Sadly that is the point. Weither it is Kerry that wins, or Bush. It is two different sides of the same coin. Both Kerry and Bush want to stay in Iraq. Both Kerry and Bush, want to go after other countries in the Middle East. Both say they are a friend of Israel. (Not that there is anything wrong with that. I myself have no problems what so ever, with the Jewish nation. What I do have a problem with, is our country being biased towards Israel.) The point is though, that even if we elect Kerry. It isn't going to be a whole lot different. I've heard it said countless time. That people are going to vote, for the lesser of the two evils. My question is, why vote for either of the "evils" at all?

I myself have already voted. I'm not going to say whom I voted for. I will say however, that it wasn't Bush or Kerry. I've heard all of the arguements, about throwing away my vote. I don't buy it. Like I said, I don't believe the polls are close to accurate. So when is the best time to vote for a third party. When it is a close race, like "right now". Or when there is a spread between the two candidates. I would think more people would be willing to take that leap. Durring an election that isn't going to be very close. Think about this. The vast majority of people in this country, are from other countries. Whos parents, and grandparents etc. came here for a better life. When polls are conducted of foreign countries. They overwhelmingly vote for Kerry over Bush. By something around 72% for Kerry. So how is it, that if we all came from these other countries. Yet we in this country, are split dead even?

In my opinion, the press is reporting it is a 50/50 split. So that we won't vote for a third party candidate. We will be so worried about, throwing away our vote. That the third parties won't have a chance. So what if the polls are a lie? The majority of the media outlets, are owned by big business for the most part. So what is in their best interests as a business? To make sure they have someone in Washington, to represent their interests. That means, it is in their best interests to support the two major parties. Who are already in their pockets, so to speak. It's not like they can be held accountable, if the polls are a smoke screen. Everyone is saying they have no idea who will win, or by how much. The undecided/independent voters own this election. So who do you think undecided, and independent voters are going to vote for? If they haven't made up their minds yet. Or they didn't register as Democrat, or Republican. Their must be a reason, they don't want to be affiliated with either of the two parties. So what if the majority of them vote for someone other then Bush and Kerry?

Now is the time to search your heart, and ante up for the biggest election of our lifetimes. I am not here to say who to vote for. But there is a song, that I think is more then just a little prophetic about this election. It's The Whos, We Won't Get Fooled Again. If I could have one wish come true. I would hope that song, is playing in everybody's head until they vote. Do you want 4 more years of Bush and his agenda. Do you want 4 years of Republican Lite Kerry. Or do you want real change? Why is it, that the Repulicans and Democrats have been in charge of this country for decades. Yet life hasn't improved very much, from generation to generation. All of the money that has been spent, and what do we have to show for it? Everywhere you look, roads need to be repaired etc.. Our infrastructure is going down hill, but we have billions to allocate to Iraq etc.. We are cutting policeman, and fireman jobs. While we are supposedly facing a terrorist attack at any second, for over 3 years now. How much freedom are we suppossed to give up, if we are going to have a single attack in a random state. Maybe every 3-4 years. Doesn't this remind you of your job? One person accidentally spills a drink. So they punish everyone, and no one is allowed to have a drink.

Why has 99% of the population had to pay in any way, with our freedoms. When 9/11 physically effected a fraction of 1% of the population? I don't mean to offend anyone here, in any way. 9/11 was beyond words, as to how screwed up it was for anyone to do. But that isn't the point. The point is, neither of the two major parties are on the majorities side. We aren't all rich. These parties act like there aren't any problems to address. When they do, they pay it lip service. I'm tired of waiting for a real change in Washington. I would like to see a better world, while I am still alive. How many generations are we suppossed to wait, before our lives actually are better. How many generations are going to have to continue to pay. While we see little to no benefit in OUR country.

We all need to wake up. This is nothing other the a legalized pyramid scheem, that we have going on right now. Social Security is a GREAT idea in principle. Everyone wants to be taken care of, when they grow old. To include myself. But is it suppossed to be on the backs of our kids, and grand kids etc.? It used to be, that you could raise a family on one income. Now it takes two jobs, to live the same standard of living. Twist the numbers any way you want with inflation etc.. But everything is getting more and more expensive around us. Does anyone actually believe that the wages, are going to keep up with the cost of living, goods etc.. At the rate we are going, houses will be $500,000 for our kids. For a house that costs $200,000 now. The cost of wood didn't naturally increase that much. We have technology replacing our jobs, or they are being outsourced. The number of decent paying jobs keeps decreasing. So how in the world, are our kids going to be able to afford to live, much less our grand kids? Wheither it's utilities, groceries, houses, or insurance etc.. They all cost more and more every year. Then future generations have to support all of us geezers, on top of it? The bubble is going to burst sooner or later. Unless we adress this psudo pyramid scheem, we call America.

Alot of people are bearly making it month to month as it is. So it's really just a matter of time, before more and more of us. Can no longer afford to live in the US. Now who would that benefit? It's called getting rid of the "riff raff", or undesireables. Apparently we want to be paid a living wage, and that is just way too much to ask for. They would rather open up the borders, and allow whomever wants to come to the US in. Because they will work for less. It's the perfect cycle. Sell everyone on the American dream. Then when they get here, they realize they were sold a lemon by a car salesman. If you toe their line, then you can advance. But if you come across as wanting anything at all. You become a problem. They want yes men and women. Not people that are going to stand up for themselves, or their co-workers. They want total control over our lives, and the government is more then willing to give it to them. For a price.

So it's time for us to quit being sold out. Bands "sell out", and their fan base usually lets them know. So don't be fooled by their ads and "liberal media" spin. Or the big production, leading up to this election. Just ask yourself. How much longer do we have to live in fear? We lived through the cold war. We all know what it's like to be raised, thinking today could be your last day on Earth. No one should want anyone, to ever have to live like that again. WHY should we? So if a majority of us, don't like Kerry or Bush. Or don't think there is a good candidate running in the two major parties. Then don't vote for them. As long as we keep voting them into office, they have a mandate. The only way to get their attention. Is to turn our backs on them both. If they saw, they were loosing support across the board. They would have to change their tune. A third candidate doesn't even have to win. Just get 15-20 percent, and I'm sure we would have their undivided attention. I know that may be wishful thinking. But I'm sure you get the point.

So to sum this book up. I don't care who you vote for. If you are tired of Bush, don't vote for him. If you don't like Kerry. Don't vote for him. As I said before. Now is the perfect time to voice our disapproval over how our country is being run. When are we going to have a Republican president, that is more disliked then Bush? I mean really, literally. When are we going to have another Democrat, that gains this little approval from his own party? When are we going to have an election, that has "spare" votes to give to third party candidates after this? I do acknowledge that this country is becomming more and more polarized. But that doesn't mean that it is polarized at 50/50. Just because more people are becoming more vocal about everything. Doesn't mean the race is dead even. So I am asking in all hoesty, without all of the political spin from either party. If not now, when!?

Edit: Took out some strange spam links.

[edit on 2-11-2004 by ZeddicusZulZorander]

Herman:

My honest, straight-up prediction - just for you:

Kerry will win with 298 electoral votes. Just my gut feeling looking at the momentum he has gained over the last few weeks. While it hasn't been huge leaps - it has been a point or two every three or four days. Disappointing but alas, I fear it to be true - dare I say - President Kerry.

Bleys-

Originally posted by Weller
I really feel that Kerry has a shot but don't want to hedge my bets...however I wanted to make another point about something you said in your post:

I really don't care who you want to win, that's your choice of course, but why do you and others keep calling it negative propaganda against Bush? Has there not been an equal amount directed at Kerry?

I'm just curious what you call negative propaganda where Bush is concerned. In some cases I would call it that but in other cases there are legitimate negatives against Bush, his past and current presidency included. Same goes for Kerry.

That's one thing that has baffled me about Bush. Its like he has never done anything wrong or made mistakes at all. His supporters are the most blind observers of his record I have ever seen in my entire life regarding any candidate. I can gladly count off the things I find negative about Kerry while still supporting his candidacy but I would say the only true propaganda that was floating around about his was the hype regarding the Swift Boat Veterans. His flip flopping, voting record, etc. although a matter of perspective I felt were fair game.

Why do Bush supporters so blindly defend him and turn any criticism lodged against him as criminal or propaganda? Truly baffles me and scares me when hero worship of this kind gets so strong. Even my Republican father is disgusted at some of the things Bush has done in his past and present while still planning to vote for him.

[edit on 113030p://111 by Weller]

Well Weller, thanks for your post. Sorry I had to quote the whole thing, but it applies to what I need to say. You speak of blind observers. You speak of ignoring facts. But don't you realize that Bush RELEASED his military records to be viewd by the public at leisure? That's why the accusations against him ceased, he got it all over with by releasing his military records. Nobody could prove anything against him, so it rested at that. Kerry, on the other hand, has not release his military records as of yet. I wonder why that could be? Does he have something to hide? What kind of attrocities did he commit? Were his purple hearts all a bunch of B.S? He won't tell us. Nobody cared. Nobody went after him. Everyone of his supporters just shut up about the whole thing and changed the subject. How were they able to do that? Oh who cares! Let's just play more soundbites of Bush screwing up in one of his speeches!!!!

I don't know how you can stand by and say that there is an equal amount of anti-whoever propaganda going on on both sides. Walk into any book store. I dare you. Go to the biography. They'll probably have about 10-15 anti-Bush or anti-right wing books, 5-6 scattered pro-Kerry or left wing books, and 2 or 3 Pro-Bush books. Seriously, last time I went to Barnes and Nobel, I was disgusted. I found that they had replaced Unfit for Command with a book called Unfit Commander which was an anti-Bush book with just about the SAME cover as Unfit for Command, but with a picture of Bush instead of Kerry. They Anti-Bush "rock the vote" stuf on MTV. The Eminem videos. The Anti-bush ad's that are constantly playing on Comedy central and ....*Shivers* MTV.(No, I don't watch MTV, but I've seen them while flipping through channels).

Lastly, you say that Bush supporters just turn away from the issues. Take a look at BTS Political debate section... There are plenty of us Bushies there who are always defending our case. Bush's staff is also always having to deal with these things. I don't know where you get the idea that they always just turn away.

Ah well, it won't matter anymore after today...

[Edited on 2-11-2004 by Herman]