Potential N. Korean War Strategies

The best strategy is not to fight a war in the first place. Everyone wins, nobody dies. Diplomacy at the UN is the only way forward. Sadly I realise that we dont live in a Star Trek style Federation. I think it can work if we really want it to. What we need is an inspirational global leader who will have the guts to do some honest brokering and break out of the current political mould we have been stuck with since the Cold War. Gorbecheav gave the world a very precious gift in allowing the Cold War to end and lifting the threat of Global nuclear war from us. I remember all too well growing up back in the 70s and 80's being afraid in bed that we were going to get blown up. Many of todays youngsters have no idea what that is like. I dont want to see it happen again.

So no war is ideal. Why cant North Korea just grow up and at least open up to some extent like China has. Un can still have his throne, people will get fed and it will be a win win situation. Is Mr Un so blind or so deluded that he cant even see that?

Mostly to hear what others' opinions may be, but also because it is on my mind: Has anyone else besides me considered the possibility of Kim Jong Un attacking China? Yes, it would be suicide, as would several other possible scenarios, but what do we actually know about Kim the younger? He wants to impress the generals, yes, I agree. He wants to step out from under his father's shadow, agreed. He is likely mentally unstable, but we don't know for certain, do we? ..And just how unstable, and in what way(s)? Is he suicidal? If so, would he sacrifice his country and his people just to go out with a bang, thus forever distancing himself from his father and becoming infamous in his own right? Food for thought, no?
We know he likes Dennis Rodman, so much so he had a sit-down with him. Rodman says that he seemed like a decent person, (or something to that effect. I don't remember verbatim what Rodman said.) Rodman said Mr Kim wants a telephone call from Mr Obama... What about? Your guess is as good as mine.
Why Rodman, arguably to professional sports what George Clinton is to music... Why did Mr Kim single him out?
I don't know, my friends, I just don't know. Maybe Mr Kim will sit down with Marylin Manson next?
So many questions, so much speculation, and what in the way of concrete answers.....
It just unnerves me, in context with other events of late, it gives me indigestion. Now where did I put those Tums?
If Mr Kim were to attack, would he (could he) attack multiple targets simultaneously? (And by multiple targets, I mean multiple nations) Could he theoretically attack China, Japan, South Korea, and North America all at once? And what would potential American and Chinese targets be?

I think I'll shut up now. My supper wants to come back up.

Originally posted by Wirral Bagpuss
The best strategy is not to fight a war in the first place. Everyone wins, nobody dies. Diplomacy at the UN is the only way forward. Sadly I realise that we dont live in a Star Trek style Federation. I think it can work if we really want it to. What we need is an inspirational global leader who will have the guts to do some honest brokering and break out of the current political mould we have been stuck with since the Cold War. Gorbecheav gave the world a very precious gift in allowing the Cold War to end and lifting the threat of Global nuclear war from us. I remember all too well growing up back in the 70s and 80's being afraid in bed that we were going to get blown up. Many of todays youngsters have no idea what that is like. I dont want to see it happen again.

So no war is ideal. Why cant North Korea just grow up and at least open up to some extent like China has. Un can still have his throne, people will get fed and it will be a win win situation. Is Mr Un so blind or so deluded that he cant even see that?

Wow! Do you really believe what you post? Everybody wins, nobody dies? Tell that to the hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of North Koreans who are starving to death because of US led United Nations economic sanctions. Why can't North Korea grow up? Or do you mean surrender their nation to a hostile power? There are still people in this world who believe in national sovereignty and not surrendering to international cabals. North Korea's only option is to develop a nuclear deterrence. The North Korean military is taking the only rational measures that any nation under the same circumstances would take. The leadership is not crazy contrary to what you would hear in the media. Any time the US wants to overthrow another country it brainwashes its people through the media to believe that the leader of that country is insane or evil or both. Saddam Hussein and Muammar Khadaffi were no different than many other world leaders. If they are made to seem evil, nobody cares if we destroy their nations and kill a million people. We are liberating those countries.

Gorbachev did not allow the Cold War to end and lift the nuclear war threat. What world are you living in? Gorbachev was trying to avert the collapse of the Soviet Union. The other communists didn't like the steps he was taking and orchestrated a coup. Haven't you ever noticed that Gorbachev didn't come back to power after the coup failed. Yeltsin came to power. So you have a coup by die hard communists against a moderate communist that leads to a noncommunist coming to power. How did the nuclear threat supposedly disappear? What happened to all the communists running Russia? What happened to the KGB? Just because you change the name of the political party that you follow does not change what you actually believe in. The weapons are still there and more advanced now. The nuclear threat did not disappear; it got worse.

IF NK really was determined to attack and went all out, it would likely use a combination of tactics.

1) Suitcase nukes in SK population centers, possibly other US interests via terror cells.
2) Cyber attacks in SK, Japan, and other US interests.
3) Harbor nukes about ships into SK harbors.
4) Artillery shelling and rolling armor through the DMZ.
5) Coordinated strike by their air forces to soften the enemy in the DMZ.
6) Missiles with conventional warheads at SK, Japan, US interests, even try for the Pacific coast.

To which the US would then. (after getting a nod from China)

1) Attack all military targets (bases, airfields, AA defenses, SAM sites, command & HQ centers, bridges, armored divisions, etc.) using cruise missiles (conventional) and stealth bombers. Naval assets attack all identified NK military ships.

2) Establish air superiority, engage armor at a distance, followed up by close air support. Other (non-stealth) air power used to mop up any remaining naval, and land targets.

3) Roll in with token UN forces (including China), but mostly US armor, to secure and establish new regime

Un knows he must make the US SK strike first , this is to keep China on his side and for defense. If he Un makes the first move as to drop or send a nuke, bomb, or shell into the South or on any US base he is on his own!

China would not back him we should know this, His only move is to provoke US SK into make the first strike, does how does one do that? Just what he is doing, how will it come to an hot war?
The US SK would need to as they are doing make preparations for it, this in it self is a dangerous move, but one that is needed. Un could see it as a act of war , with respect this is the right move force him to make it.

The first move would for Un to take out the B52 bases in Guam, and Hawaii, this would prevent US form reacting, Un would have to take SK in 3 hours, this could be done in 1 hour if nukes are used.

How will the US react to this? , I think the first thing would be a call to Russia and China,
it would be something like this
"we the US are about to use Nukes on the DPRK, limited use tactical, low yield. This is in no way an act toward you, DPRK must be shown that no one can use nukes with out facing the like effect, we will only target mil and mil complexes, we do not need your consent. "


Would China Russia sit back and do nothing or would they in return do the same to us US? This is a game that has be come real we can do all,the arm chair general thinking, playing,and moves we want , that is what it should be... just a game.

Now it has be come real, surreal for any sec Un DPRK could and would use force to gain SK for it is their wish we can not for get that nor act as if that is not part of the equation and we the US are the only thing stopping them.

How far will Un DPRK go?

One does not turn its back on any peaceful means, with out the intended use of ones toys. DPRK has been told and asked to to seek the bomb they have and openly admitted it, they have seeked the use of missiles , one out of 3, but after looking into how far ,and how fast they can do it , they have it make no mistake.

Their words are not empty, nor are their actions just show, we need to ready our selves for the unthinkable, full out Nuke war, it does not matter whom makes the first move, any move will lead to the end result... Nukes.

We can, and have been...wait him out. Simple as that. He should know there is NO way we're going to strike first, unless China gives us a wink.

The first move would for Un to take out the B52 bases in Guam, and Hawaii, this would prevent US form reacting, Un would have to take SK in 3 hours, this could be done in 1 hour if nukes are used.

How on Earth would he do this?

Originally posted by daryllyn
reply to post by yorkshirelad

 

And?

We cannot be sure exactly what their capabilities are.

'Sweat in peace, bleed not in war.'

You would amazed at what we know about them. We track everything they do, 24 hrs a day, 365 days per year. We probably know about their capabilities than they do.

Well, we have a good idea, but as a closed society, our intel has a much more difficult time of it. Still, we've got enough to make some sound policy decisions I'd wager.

reply to post by Gazrok
we have not payed attention to their missile weapons program, we where to busy laughing at them, but some of us where, the best way to counter defense over whelm it Could Guam counter 100 missiles at one time? could the Us defend against such an attack? we have better start thinking irps.ucsd.edu... from the link

DPRK: Short and Medium Range vs. Long Range Ballistic Missiles
Philip Maxon
1
Presented to PPNT Winter Conference
March 25, 2011
In January, Secretary Gates made headlines by commenting that North Korea was five years away from developing an ICBM that
could reach portions of the United States.2
The Director of National Intelligence,James Clapper largely
reiterated the comments in his latest “Threat Assessment.”3While
various quotes on when North Korea will develop long range missile capabilities are nothing new, the quotes nearly always miss the more
immediate and pressing security issue: North Korea’s short and
medium range missiles.

it should note that it is now long rage missiles that are a treat as well, DC that is questionable but they can hit the west coast, if they can do that well Guam is a stones throw. the question is how many can they launch in one bombardment? 100 1000 or 10,000. then there is the nuke threat, EMP Bio, Chem, and conventional could be used as well. If Un was to do the unthinkable he would need to do it all at once, not piece meal like Saddam Hussein did. here is out dated map of NK DPRK Un's missile range www.bbc.co.uk... updated would include the US west coast possible Denver Co.

Originally posted by anton74

Originally posted by daryllyn
reply to post by yorkshirelad

 

And?

We cannot be sure exactly what their capabilities are.

'Sweat in peace, bleed not in war.'

You would amazed at what we know about them. We track everything they do, 24 hrs a day, 365 days per year. We probably know about their capabilities than they do.

North Korea knows more about South Korea and the United States than they know about North Korea. South Korea and the US are open societies that are filled with North Korean spies; spies in the military, government, industry, etc. There are some spies in North Korea, but nothing like what the North has. Its harder to be a spy in a military dictatorship than in a "free" country.

reply to post by Gazrok


Well it is believed they likely have missiles that can hit Hawaii and definitely Guam.
And I swear, I'm not following you around.. we're just posting in the same threads tonight apparently.

reply to post by bekod


Reportedly, he has rockets capable of hitting the Pacific coast...personally, I think that's a stretch of its capabilities, but even granting that, he'd have to build up (and fire) a MASSIVE salvo to overwhelm the current BMDS (Ballistic Missile Defense System) in place on the continental US, even Alaska or Hawaii.

It would take a lesser salvo to hit nearby targets like Guam, but they still have elements of the same BMDS. Even Japan has a few Aegis-equipped ships. And, I'd wager we have long since put in some PAC-3 batteries in SK and Guam, and Japan.

To another:

Mostly to hear what others' opinions may be, but also because it is on my mind: Has anyone else besides me considered the possibility of Kim Jong Un attacking China?

No, never crossed my mind, but he might as well walk face-first into a wood-chipper....it'd have the same effect.