John Elfreth Watkins Jr - The Man Who Saw The Future

Hello again ATS.

I was just wasting time scanning one of my other favorite sites, Listverse when I came upon a snippet that amazed me and led to write this thread.

So, without further ado...

John Elfreth Watkins Jr.

The Man Who Saw The Future

There are plenty of futurists, fiction writers, and even filmmakers and TV producers who seem to have had a gift for predicting the shape of things to come. HGWells, and Arthur C. Clarke spring directly to mind. I cannot imagine that many people in my own age group did not, at some point in the nineties or early part of the 21st century, grab their cell phones, flip them open, and pay homage to this image???:



Modern culture is replete with examples of those rare visionaries who seemed to be able to use their imaginations to part the fabric of space/time and to peer into the great unknown of ”What is to be and make unerringly specific predictions – even when they were just trying to be entertaining.

Some folks, it seems, are just tapped into things. They just get it.

ATS is all about these people and I was shocked to find that not a single thread seems to exist about J. Elfreth Watkins Jr. - Well that's assuming that the growing pains of the new search engine didn't let me down.

I'll proceed with the assumption that Samuru knows – and introduce you good people to Mr Watkins and the series of very impressive predictions that he made in an article for the Ladies Home Journal – some 113 years ago.


J. Elfreth Watkins


Ladies Home Journal – December, 1900

A larger, readable view of the article

While he did not bat 1,000, making a few predictions that have yet to come to pass – he was amazingly accurate with most of the things he predicted. Even if he'd have only gotten a few right, he would already be outperforming many of the so-called “prophets” who we tend to think of as nearly infallible and amazingly impressive. Folks like Nostradamus and Edgar Cayce.

I think we can forgive him a few missed shots and agree that, in spite of those, he was still quite the marksman. We are talking about a person who potentially predicted genetically modified foods in the year 1900!

Some of the things his article predicts:

1)American Population, Attempted European expansion in the Americas, and possibly the UN.

Five Hundred Million People. There will probably be from 350,000,000 to 500,000,000 million people in America and it's possessions by the lapse of another century. Nicaragua will ask for admission to our Union after the completion of the great canal. Mexico will be next. Europe, seeking more territory to the south of us, will cause many of the South and Central American republics to be voted into the Union by their own people

Hit and miss – but I think texturally at least in the right groove.

At the time, America was in a rapid expansion and population boom – leading most futurists and experts to predict population levels much, much higher than this come the year 2,000. As it happens the actual population of the US in the year 2,000 was 281,421,906. Leaving Mr Watkins more accurate than most of his contemporaries – even those whose job it was to predict such things for long term planning.

The canal, of course, wound up being built in Panama. But as of the time that Watkins was writing, Nicaruagua was still the proposed site for the upcoming construction project.

An interesting aside... if not for a volcano and strong political interests in the US – who stood to financially gain from the canal being moved to Panama instead... we might today refer to it as the Nicaragua canal.

European expansion into South America is debatable. I think that the desire was surely there and several European nations did have physical interests in the region. As history has it, however, other factors kept Europe out of South America and none of those nations ever did end up asking for statehood. Partly due to the formation of the League of Nations and, subsequently, the United Nations.

2) Advancements in medicine regarding physical stature, health, and longevity. Oh and the 'Burbs

The American Will Be Taller by from one to two inches. His increase of stature will result from better health, due to vast reforms in medicine, sanitation, food and athletics. He will live fifty years instead of the thirty-five as at present – for he will reside in the suburbs. The city house will practically be no more. Building in blocks will be illegal. The trip from suburban home to office will require a few minutes only. A penny will pay the fare.

Regarding height:

Watkins had unerring accuracy here, says Mr Nilsson - the average American man in 1900 was about 66-67ins (1.68-1.70m) tall and by 2000, the average was 69ins (1.75m).

Source article from the BBC also discussing this subject – replete with many verifications for several of the predictions

As I read the 35 year life expectancy I am just at a loss for words. Apparently I've already lived 11 years too long and I barely feel like I'm out of my teens at this point.

The 'burbs prediction I personally think hit the nail on the head – from a 1950's POV. There was a time when most everyone living in cities was poor and did not want to be there – and the fortunate did flock to the suburbs... Back then fares were cheap and travel times were light. We've just moved beyond this prediction already. Now the rich tend to live in cities, traffic is a nightmare for those of us stuck in the burbs, and fares ( gas ) no longer are anything near reasonable or affordable.

3) Central heating and air:

Hot and Cold Air from Spigots. Hot or cold air will be turned on from spigots. To regulate the temperature of a house as we now turn on hot or cold water from spigots to regulate the temperature of the bath. Central plants will supply this cool air and heat to city houses in the same way as now our gas or electricity is furnished. Rising early to build the furnace will be a task of the olden times. Homes will have no chimneys because no smoke will be created within their walls

Other than the assumption that cold air would be delivered, rather than produced on sight – I think this is pretty spot on. Coming from a man who was writing a full 2 years before the first, novel, full air conditioning system began operating in New York – and 45 years before the modern concept of common, household air conditioning was patented and started.

I covered the first three here. I began with the notion of commenting upon them all but now am changing plans – as there are 28 individual predictions in the article!

The new plan is to touch on just the high points!

How about:

Refrigeration
Health codes
Digital photography
Cell phones
Airplanes and warplanes
The Internet
Genetically modified flowers and foods!!!

Read the article and I think you will be as impressed with the predictions as I currently am. For the record, one that he missed, IMO, is not a poor reflection upon him but upon us for not being wise enough to pursue it:

How Children will be Taught A university education will be free to every man and woman. Several great national universities will have been established. Children will study a simple English grammar adapted to simplified English and not copied after the Latin. Time will be saved by grouping like studies. Poor students will be given free board, free clothing and free books if ambitious and actually unable to meet their school and college expenses. Medical inspectors regularly visiting the public schools with furnish poor children free eyeglasses, free dentistry and free medical attention of every kind. The very poor will, when necessary, get free rides to and from school and free lunches between sessions. In vacation time poor children will be taken on trips to various parts of the world. Etiquette and housekeeping will be important studies in the public schools.

Regarding children and investing in the future... I think it might be wise to heed the counsel of this man who seemed to have such a clear view of it, 113 years ago.

I hope this has interested you as much as it interested me.

So ATS... what do you have to say about John Elfreth Watkins Jr and his ideas about the future... about a world that he could only imagine but in which we exist?

Thanks for your time!

~Heff

Bibliography:

Listverse
Wikipedia
BBC News
Flickr

Of course the part that got my attention was that English will be the predominate language of the world, followed by Russian?! Very interesting...I'm going to have to give this guy a deeper looking into. Have to get the rug rats off to school, but thanks for the op, I'll be going over it better later!

Originally posted by Hefficide


So ATS... what do you have to say about John Elfreth Watkins Jr and his ideas about the future... about a world that he could only imagine but in which we exist?

He seems like a guy that figured out the cyclic nature of reality and used "basic observational skills" to project the most "probable" future based on all he was able to observe at the time.
Anyone can do it really. I could throw out a bunch of probable calculations out there that in 100 years from now people could look back on and go wow this guy was a "profit".
Anyway you asked for my thoughts so here you have it. Probably not what you were after as a response but maybe something to think about

reply to post by ThePhysicalExperience


Of course I agree that it's applied logic. But it is still impressive. Even as late as the fifties experts were predicting flying cars by the eighties and the like. Very few "futurists" seem to have the right lens and end up over-predicting. This man seemed to have a talent for keeping the linear progression in check and creating a predictive model that was down to earth and more accurate than others.

It can't be easy. Hell, my twenty year old self, in 1986 could never have predicted that I would be sitting here, just twenty-six years later, talking to strangers from across the entire globe about things like this. Alternately, that twenty year old version of me was rightfully positive that men would have walked on Mars by now. Most experts at the time shared that view.

Being able to envision what's to come is apparently a very special talent - even if it is simply based in logic.

Very interesting article. I see many hits, and some close-but-not-quite hits. I like the one where he says the English language will be condensed - OMG, LMAO, LOL Boy, he had that right!

An interesting miss was the prediction that we could all walk 10 miles easily. It's interesting, because right above that prediction, he predicted cars would be everywhere. What he didn't see, I guess, is that our dependence on cars would make us lazier. Most people can't walk 10 miles easily.

BTW, I had to laugh at your reference to Star Trek and the flip phone. I remember when I got my first flip phone -- every time I opened it, I couldn't help but say, "Beam me up, Scotty." I thought that was so cool at the time.

Upon a closer read, I noticed that Watkins went to academics of his day and got their opinions on these matters, so perhaps he wasn't really the one to predict these things, he just was the one who wrote down the findings. Still, how did these academics foresee these advancements? The thing that got me was how much of this has already come to pass and how starkly it contrasts to 1900. This past century really was like hyper evolution of our society on so many levels.

And I'm still scratching my head over Russian being the second language. In 1900 Russia was considered by many a lowly backwater country....this was years before the Bolshevik revolution, many years before it became the USSR proper and it just puzzles me why at that time anyone would see such great potential in such a nation? I don't mean this as a slight to Russia at all. But I'm trying to put myself in the place of the academic mind of 1900 and try to view it that way, and the only thing I can think of is that the vision of Russia was one of greatness due to its size? Perhaps when these learned men gazed into the crystal ball they foresaw a huge population and immigration explosion occurring in Russia, much as it had in the USA? Why else would they think Russian would be the second world language? I'm just kinda grasping here.

I also thought it was funny how in this time every human is supposed to be able to walk 10 miles! I got a kick out of that. Obivously the crystal ball did not anticipate segways I think if we did walk 10 miles, there would be no need for golds gym or diet pills. The entire weight obsessed culture as we know it would vanish or be greatly minimalized. I know I used to love walking through the city when I was younger, and I'm convinced it was the number one reason I stayed thin when I was younger. If American cities could be restructured in a way where it was nice and convienent for people to walk through them instead of drive, it would fix all kinds of issues that we currently face.

Great OP heff, you always seem to find stuff that sends my little gears into overdrive. I'll be pondering this one throughout the rest of the day, I'm sure!

reply to post by Hefficide


The best part is everything seems to eventuate, just not in any specific time reference point (specific dates). Once the human mind has thought up fantasy or anything it seems to manifest in the "long run". All the science fiction of the past we are achieving or have achieved. I can only imagine with all the movies that can be watched today what the human potential "could be". Unless of course there is something "that happens" to drastically alter this course of events.

reply to post by Hefficide


One of the things that tickles me no end about these old predictions--and I mean ALL of them--is the ubiquitous "pneumatic tubes" delivering everything to everywhere.

When I was a kid (this would be '50s, early '60s) all the big department stores had pneumatic tubes, but even then they didn't use them for transporting dry-goods: The clerk put the written order and the customer's money in a sealed "can" of sorts and then into the tube, where it was sucked up to a central office somewhere, and a receipt and any change due were delivered back to the clerk. I thought the whole thing was tremendously cool. (The tubes were glass with brass or wrought- or cast-iron fixtures.) But I never considered how it might be used to deliver anything else.

What's more, I really can't understand how anyone could have imagined such delivery mechanisms. Think of the enormity of the physical plant; the amount of pneumatic power that would have to be generated. It would be the main occupation of an entire city to operate and maintain the damn thing. And tubes everywhere! They'd blot out the sky!

But whatever. I'm just glad they all missed their mark on that one....

If you are interested i have made a "prediction", the only prediction "i know" to be completely objective in nature and as such i consider it "the ultimate prediction". Its a bit of a "riddle" too which "strong minds" will find "entertaining".
www.abovetopsecret.com...