Potential for 'Superquakes' Underestimated, Recent Earthquakes Show

The earthquakes that rocked Tohoku, Japan in 2011, Sumatra in 2004 and Chile in 1960 — all of magnitude 9.0 or greater — should not have happened, according to seismologist's theories of earthquake cycles. And that might mean earthquake prediction needs an overhaul, some researchers say.

I find this a scary as I have relatives that live on the Pacific coast.

news.yahoo.com...

www.csmonitor.com...

You believe a scientist saying a 9.0 earthquake cannot happen? I mean these guys are of the same professional ilk as those that predict weather... incorrectly on a daily basis.

Scientists cannot predict anything let alone tell us what cannot happen.

Name one who has correctly predicted earthquakes...there are none. So why believe one saying something 'shouldn't' happen.

Henny Penny was a scientist.

A lot of people seem to beleive that EQs are repeated in cycles after X amount of years...how can we possibly be sure of any cylce if we have so little data in comparisson to millions of years of EQs.

Even if they say it Should not happen, it clearly has in the past and there is no way (at least not currently) to predict an EQ. So no one knows when THE big one will hit. I agree it is coming but it could just as well be in 5 minutes or in a thousand years or more.

I just hope we have something to hold on to when it does happen.

Yikes, I'm in Vancouver and there have been a lot more news articles on preparation for the "Big One" we have allegedly waiting for since I was in early childhood.

reply to post by pacifier2012


No, the scientist was saying that according to currently accepted models of how earthquakes occur, there should not have been enough stress built up to allow for an earthquake as powerful as 9.0.

Basically - the current model assumes that whenever an earthquake occurs, most or all of the built-up stress (which made it happen in the first place) is released, thus normalizing the region. However, now that several massive earthquakes have effectively disproven that model, they are now changing it so that any earthquake can "borrow" energy from a previous cycle of slowly-building pressure. In other words, because there was still some pressure left over from the previous earthquake, that "latent" pressure can potentially be added to a future earthquake.

They're not claiming that a 9.0 is theoretically impossible, lol.

Originally posted by Teye22
A lot of people seem to beleive that EQs are repeated in cycles after X amount of years...how can we possibly be sure of any cylce if we have so little data in comparisson to millions of years of EQs.

But we are getting much better at spotting the traces of previous earthquakes, which can be added to current models for improving their accuracy. This is one cool example which is cited in the OP's 2nd link.

Even if they say it Should not happen, it clearly has in the past and there is no way (at least not currently) to predict an EQ. So no one knows when THE big one will hit. I agree it is coming but it could just as well be in 5 minutes or in a thousand years or more.

Yeah, that's basically what the researchers are saying as well!

From the 2nd link:

The battery model of earthquake energy storage and discharge makes it difficult for scientists to forecast future earthquakes, as there's no explanation yet for why faults would behave this way, Goldfinger said. Plus, it's hard to say how much energy a fault's battery stores. "We haven't yet figured out how to effectively put a voltmeter on a fault and say how charged it is," Goldfinger said.

Even with the new and updated model (Battery Model - I briefly described it above) it actually promises even "less" about predicting future quakes than the now-obsolete model. But at least it's more accurate and a step forward in understanding.

reply to post by pacifier2012

You believe a scientist saying a 9.0 earthquake cannot happen? I mean these guys are of the same professional ilk as those that predict weather... incorrectly on a daily basis

I think your missing the point. They are aware they do happen they have the evidence. They are going to have to rethink there models or earthquake formation to get better results in future. They dont get stuff right all the time but they do a lot better than just guessing.