Update to Near-Earth asteroid (NEA) 99942 Apophis Bigger Than Thought

reply to post by shivaX

More than 1 way to protect our planet.

Yes, there are plenty of potential ways to protect us. A missile is not a good choice. Now, if we can hit the sucker far enough out to give it a nudge, that's the answer. We can't blast it away, but we might be able to redirect it.

Landing some type of thruster on it sounds great for a movie, but in reality, would be rather complex. Just slamming something with enough mass and speed into it might alter the trajectory.

but there's the rub.... We have done a good job at mapping out local bodies in space, we can do a lot of calculations as to orbits and such, but we really have no clue what will happen if we alter it's course, so many things out there can alter it's course, we could redirect it, make it miss, then send some massive pile of rocks out of the ort cloud at us.

anyways, a plan that's not even at the planning stage + government = nothing done in a timely manner. In fact, we'd be best off to crowd source it, and allow private industry to save us, they'd probably actually get it done.

Right now, we know where apophis is, where it's heading, and once it passes in a few years, where it will be next pass. Any nudge in any direction alters all of that, and we're back to guessing.

reply to post by phishyblankwaters


That's what I said originally.
That missiles can destroy and/or redirect asteroids.

Originally posted by jimmyx
ssd.jpl.nasa.gov...

this will not even come close enough to worry about, according to the above website, but, if you have other information on the minimum distance using AU (1 AU is the distance of earth to the sun) or, LD (1 LD is the distance of earth to the moon), please show it.

I guess you can read your link,I can't.So I assume you have the knowlage to answer my question.Since the previous probability impact calculations have alread been completed.Will the discovery of the bigger mass of the object affect those calculations?If you are not sure I pose this question to Phage.

I read about this earlier and the article was talking about how as the asteroid passes close to the sun and away from it, it shrinks and expands and this can cause the asteroid to change it's course. I found that very interesting. I don't think it has any chance to hit us this time around (not that they would tell us if it did.... :@@ but I think it will be something to keep in mind getting closer to 2029 when it will come closer...........

99942 Apophis will be perilously close to earth and will be within range to wipe out geosynchronous satellites.

Quoting NASA:


The future for Apophis on Friday, April 13 of 2029 includes an approach to Earth no closer than 29,470 km (18,300 miles, or 5.6 Earth radii from the center, or 4.6 Earth-radii from the surface) over the mid-Atlantic, appearing to the naked eye as a moderately bright point of light moving rapidly across the sky. Depending on its mechanical nature, it could experience shape or spin-state alteration due to tidal forces caused by Earth’s gravity field.
asteroidapophis.com...******************neo.jpl.nasa.gov...

reply to post by ddarkangle2bad


"No closer than 29,470 km" can hardly be called "perilously close." For a satellite, maybe (and even that's a stretch), but certainly not for any sort of risk of impact.

Originally posted by shivaX

Originally posted by Avgudar

Originally posted by shivaX
As far as I know they have certain missiles strategically placed so that it can hit any incoming asteroid if it is dangerous for us.
So no worries.

You are deluded. They can't even launch a rocket into an orbit. It's all a hoax.

Really? Deluded

Russian Intends On Firing Missile at Asteroid Headed for Earth
Nuclear One-Two Punch Could Knock Out Dangerous Asteroid

Oh good and if the asteroid is close enough to earth on impact (long distance accuracy problems might predicate a closer firing option) the resulting EMP can knock us back to 1850 or so technology. Yehaw! Not to mention the potential "rain" of radioactive material streaming down on the earth and burning up in the atmosphere (for us to breath in and destroy arable land for crops) if the asteroid was on a direct path to the planet. Clever solution LOL.

We would be smarter to hook up a big-ass plasma rocket or inertial engine that used huge solar cells to the asteroid when it was a great distance out so that its trajectory could "gently altered" sufficiently to avoid collision. However, if it's one of those "sneaky" asteroids that just show up two days before, since NASA can't seem to get their hunting, observation and tracking right, I guess we just have to bite the bullet and either use a nuclear solution (which may or may not work depending upon asteroid density) or just let the sucker hit and hope for the best.

Rockets pointed at asteroids LOL.

Cheers - Dave

Originally posted by rockymcgilicutty

I guess you can read your link,I can't.So I assume you have the knowlage to answer my question.Since the previous probability impact calculations have alread been completed.Will the discovery of the bigger mass of the object affect those calculations?If you are not sure I pose this question to Phage.

I was wondering this too.. Almost twice the mass should change expected trajectory right?

reply to post by Avgudar


I think apophis was also a son of Ra

reply to post by Dustytoad


Don't know I guess we are waiting on Phage.I will let you know if I find out.

Earth is due a major asteroid hit. This thing could alter it's course easily due to temperature variations, and if it hit a satellite, well, possibly even more chance of it altering course.

www.deepastronomy.com...

The fact there is a better chance of being hit by this asteroid than dying in an airplane accident should be motivation enough to give some thought to planning for such a disaster as well as allocating resources to it.

www.guardian.co.uk...

And, scientists insist, there is actually very little time left to decide. At a recent meeting of experts in near-Earth objects (NEOs) in London, scientists said it could take decades to design, test and build the required technology to deflect the asteroid. Monica Grady, an expert in meteorites at the Open University, said: "It's a question of when, not if, a near Earth object collides with Earth. Many of the smaller objects break up when they reach the Earth's atmosphere and have no impact. However, a NEO larger than 1km [wide] will collide with Earth every few hundred thousand years and a NEO larger than 6km, which could cause mass extinction, will collide with Earth every hundred million years. We are overdue for a big one." Apophis had been intermittently tracked since its discovery in June last year but, in December, it started causing serious concern. Projecting the orbit of the asteroid into the future, astronomers had calculated that the odds of it hitting the Earth in 2029 were alarming. As more observations came in, the odds got higher. Having more than 20 years warning of potential impact might seem plenty of time. But, at last week's meeting, Andrea Carusi, president of the Spaceguard Foundation, said that the time for governments to make decisions on what to do was now, to give scientists time to prepare mitigation missions. At the peak of concern, Apophis asteroid was placed at four out of 10 on the Torino scale - a measure of the threat posed by an NEO where 10 is a certain collision which could cause a global catastrophe. This was the highest of any asteroid in recorded history and it had a 1 in 37 chance of hitting the Earth. The threat of a collision in 2029 was eventually ruled out at the end of last year. Alan Fitzsimmons, an astronomer from Queen's University Belfast, said: "When it does pass close to us on April 13 2029, the Earth will deflect it and change its orbit. There's a small possibility that if it passes through a particular point in space, the so-called keyhole, ... the Earth's gravity will change things so that when it comes back around again in 2036, it will collide with us." The chance of Apophis passing through the keyhole, a 600-metre patch of space, is 1 in 5,500 based on current information.

reply to post by rockymcgilicutty


The increase in size is still within the error of the previous estimate. Since the close-approach data likely took the initial error into account, the mass increase will probably have little effect other than increasing the precision of the existing close-approach data.

Had the mass increase put it beyond the original margin of error, then we could have seen a significant change in the close-approach distance...but it didn't, so it shouldn't.

Originally posted by CLPrime
reply to post by rockymcgilicutty

 

The increase in size is still within the error of the previous estimate. Since the close-approach data likely took the initial error into account, the mass increase will probably have little effect other than increasing the precision of the existing close-approach data.

Had the mass increase put it beyond the original margin of error, then we could have seen a significant change in the close-approach distance...but it didn't, so it shouldn't.

I have seen your post and respect your opinon.Thanks for the info.

Originally posted by theabsolutetruth
and if it hit a satellite, well, possibly even more chance of it altering course.

If 325 meter asteroid hit a satellite (100th the size of the asteroid would be quite a large satellite) it would no more change it's course than a car hitting a butterfly.

Originally posted by FireballStorm

Originally posted by theabsolutetruth
and if it hit a satellite, well, possibly even more chance of it altering course.

If 325 meter asteroid hit a satellite (100th the size of the asteroid would be quite a large satellite) it would no more change it's course than a car hitting a butterfly.

Obviously it wouldn't impede it though I believe in mathematical principles that every action has a reaction and these things aren't entirely predicable, there are things that can influence it's course including the Earth's gravity and being knocked by other asteroids, perhaps if it hit enough things and this had a minuscule effect on it's course and it entered a keyhole where gravity affected it, it could happen, I didn't say would but there are possibilities of things happening.

These are the exact words I said ''possibly even more chance of it altering course.''

www.telegraph.co.uk...

But here’s the clincher: “There are other keyholes,” Chodas says, almost in passing. And I’m fairly sure I gasp, because he starts to smile. “It is actually a problem, because each keyhole has keyholes around it, which means it could return to Earth in a different year. Mother Nature is very devious,” he says. “If asteroids come close to Earth one year, they can come back and hit you another year. It is actually fascinating, from a mathematical standpoint.”