Possible outcomes of a war across the Taiwan Straight

It's completely uncertain when this would happen if at all

It appears that if this were to happen, it would not be in the near future, so let's assume that a war across the Taiwan Straight breaks out around 2020, what are the possible outcomes of this conflict and what would be its immediate effects on China and US?

1. No war, Taiwan unites with China. China still grows at amazing pace and gains the gate to the Pacific. US will most likely lose some of it's supremacy over the Asian Pacific region.

2. A war breaks out and US does not intervene. China defeats Taiwan forces and China unites, again she gains the gate to the Pacific and in addition, she also gains international prestige, and the world becomes more multipolar.

3. A conventional war breaks out and US intervenes and China is defeated. US does suffer a great deal of casualties but China is seriously weakened. The government of China falls and chaos reigns in the nation. The nation breaks into several independent states like Russia. Taiwan attains independence and international recognition. China is no longer a strategic competitor of the US. US gains enormous reputation and become even more of a superpower.

4. A conventional war breaks out and US intervenes and US is defeated. China unites and becomes the undiputed power in Asia Pacific. The age (not really an age since it's just a few tens of years) of American supermecy is over and the world becomes a multipolar place.

5. A war breaks out and US intervenes. China looses the conventional fight. Many cities are continously being bombed and industrial centers are being destoryed. China sees that losing this war like that could mean chaos and disintegration of the nation and reluctantly fires 30 nuclear missiles at the 30 largest US cities and US retaliates. Major cities in both nations are destoryed and 50+ million Americans have lost their lives in addition to 100+ million Chinese. The age of American supremecy is over. The two nations will take the rest of the 21st century to recover from this nuclear holocaust. The direct effects may be a world war with Russia attempting to take back its lost republics; Arab nations trying to destory Israel, and North Korea trying to conquer the South. However, EU will probably emerge as the next Superpower just as Europe had been before the rise of the America.

I just think the possible losses from any US intervention of this possible war FAR outweights any possible gains. So I think if this war were to happen around 15 years in the future, it would not be in the interest of the US to intervene.

[edit on 20-10-2004 by white_raven0]

[edit on 20-10-2004 by white_raven0]

[edit on 20-10-2004 by white_raven0]

A war breaks out and US does not intervene. China defeats the Taiwan forces and China unites, again she gains the gate to the Pacific and in addition, she also gains international prestige, and the world becomes more multipolar.

The yanks are already gambling there future as a global superpower on the outcome in Iraq.
If the USA dosnt defend Taiwan it would be a throw back to the pre WW2
isolationists which would lead to another set of disasters .
North Korea would attack south korea and japan.
That would leave the USA and any countries that are fighting North Korea in the lurdics position of fighting North Korea and staying neutral in the Taiwan-China conflict. Of course China would be suppling the North Korean forces with arms.

What I have said above assumes that China attacks Taiwan. If Taiwan starts a war with China Taiwan will dig its grave. However I dont that the leaders of Taiwan are that stupid.

IMO,if there was no war in the near future,it is unlikely that there will be a war.if taiwan could stay where it is now,the chinesemainland will never start a war.
BTW,if the chinesemainland loses a war against the US,it is unlikely China will fall to pieces.since the chinese are almost a single people of a single "religion" and have no tradition of democracy.it is more likely that nationalism and patriotism would unify the country even tighter,and enforce the dictatorship.which is likely to lead the result No.5.

Hey everybody, just your friendly neighborhood mod here. This topic has several related threads going on this very subject. Please add your thoughts or comments here or any of the many Taiwan topics.
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Thanks Alot, this thread will be closed.

FredT