Official UFO Unexplained Report Percentages.

Based upon unreliable and unscientific surmises as data, the Air Force develops elaborate statistical findings which seem impressive to the uninitiated public unschooled in the fallacies of the statistical method. One must conclude that the highly publicized Air Force pronouncements based upon unsound statistics serve merely to misrepresent the true character of the UFO phenomena."
Yale Scientific Magazine (Yale University) Volume XXXVII, Number 7, April 1963

UFO percentages - when you hear people say only 5% of UFO reports are worth studying..

5% of what?

5 million?, 1 million?

Do they even know the number of UFO reports they are referring to?

When it comes to 'government sponsered' UFO studies like Bluebook and Condon there have always been concerns that figures could be 'massaged' and the true nature of unexplained report percentages be overlooked - even if a person willfully ignores many of the highly dubious USAF UFO explanations (as propounded by people like Major Hector Quintanilla) there certainly seems to be quite a number of very intriguing UFO cases out there.

NICAP's Francis Ridge makes some interesting comments below about the true number of Bluebook's 'unexplained' reports and the study carried out for the U.S. Government by the Battelle Institute - there are also some relevant statements made about the statistical conclusions of the Condon report (even though they omitted some of the most puzzling UFO cases on record) and how its high ratio of unexplained cases (about 30%) 'should arouse sufficient scientific curiosity to continue UFO study'.

Air Force Figures Tell Real Story: 88.79% Unexplained‏

Captain Edward Ruppelt, in his 1956 book, "The Report on Unidentified Flying Objects", gave some interesting statistics on the Air Force's Project Blue Book findings. Ruppelt's tenure was at a time when the Air Force was putting its best foot forward and the figures presented were based on 1,593 sightings. Less than 20 years later, in 1969 when Blue Book closed down, there were over 12,618 sightings on the books with 741 Unknowns. That equates to to only 5.8%. I later found out that these figures were derived from the Battelle Institude study which produced Project Blue Book Special Report 14. Let's look at those figures a little closer, the one's Ruppelt quoted in his book.


Stats Table


According to Ruppelt the percentage of Unknowns was 26.94%. A scientific approach to these figures shows that only 11.21% were actually proven explained (total of column 1 which represents 179 cases) leaving, in actuality, 88.79% unexplained! These Blue Book figures (during the most serious time of it's life) were based on the then 1,593 sightings the Air Force had studied.

Actually it's worse! They only "studied" 1,593 sightings, but had "received" over 4,400 with only 179 explained!!! That's less than 4% "explained"! If we were to state that a certain percentage of UFOs were "possible" or "probable" ET, the debunkers would remind us that, "scientifically", only the "proven" could be used in such an analysis. Using the Air Forces's actual numbers11.21% were proven explained, leaving over 88% without a proven explanation.
With something like that going on in U.S. air space, somebody in the Air Force should have been more concerned. This was a matter of national security and/or scientific interest.

ON STATISTICAL METHODS EMPLOYED BY BLUE BOOK

Condon.

1966 - 1968--The University of Colorado Study

Of some 90 cases considered, almost 30 were not explained. As an indication of the lack of serious intent of the study, only three unexplained cases from the Air Force's total of almost 600 were looked into. It should have been obvious that if there was anything truly mysterious or even mildly interesting about UFOs, it could probably have been found in the cases that the Air Force admitted it could not explain..
Among the conclusions for cases the Condon Committee staff failed to explain were these samples of several they obviously found quite baffling:

5/11/50, Oregon. "This is one of the few UFO reports in which all factors investigated, geometric, psychological and physical, appear to be consistent with the assertion that an extraordinary flying object, silvery, metallic, disk-shaped, tens of meters in diameter and evidently artificial, flew within sight of two witnesses."


5/7/52, Brazil. ". . . one of the strongest and demonstrably 'genuine' flying saucer sightings."


8/5/53, South Dakota. ". . . no tenable conclusions can be reached."


6/23/55, New York. ". . . this sighting defies explanation by conventional means."


8/13/56, England. "The preponderance of evidence indicates the possibility of a genuine UFO in this case . . . ." [Unfortunately, the intriguing phrase "a genuine UFO" is not defined.]


5/13/67, Colorado. "This must remain as one of the most puzzling radar cases on record."

Despite the failure of the Condon Committee's final report to explain more than 30% of the cases investigated, it had the desired effect. In December 1969, the Air Force's Project Blue Book investigation was shut down, and a 25-year period of official silence began.

Debunking the Condon Report

Statements on unexplained report percentages:

The opposite conclusion could have been drawn from The Condon Report's content, namely, that a phenomenon with such a high ratio of unexplained cases (about 30 percent) should arouse sufficient scientific curiosity to continue its study. From a scientific and engineering standpoint, it is unacceptable to simply ignore substantial numbers of unexplained observations... the only promising approach is a continuing moderate-level effort with emphasis on improved data collection by objective means... involving available remote sensing capabilities and certain software changes."
Ronald D Story - American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics UFO Subcommittee -New York: Doubleday, 1980



"There are unidentified flying objects. That is, there are a hard core of cases - perhaps 20 to 30 percent in different studies - for which there is no explanation... We can only imagine what purpose lies behind the activities of these quiet, harmlessly cruising objects that time and again approach the earth. The most likely explanation, it seems to me, is that they are simply watching what we are up to." (Redbook, vol. 143, September 1974.)
Dr. Margaret Mead, world-renowned Anthropologist.



"Probably the most striking discrepancy in the Condon report, however, was between its contents and conclusions. Condon had concluded that science could gain nothing from studying UFOs. Yet, the report ended up with a near 30 percent unexplained rate, and a core of cases that came within a hair's breadth of being conclusive evidence for the reality of alien technology – cases which, under the most rigorous analysis, appeared to be the result of extraordinary craft in the skies."
Richard Dolan PHD

link

Granted 'unexplained' does not mean alien (or anything else) but there does seem to be some serious questions raised about the way the USAF collated their UFO statistics - quibbling about the figures might not matter much anyways as Bluebook Chief Colonel Robert Friend once said that during his tenure there were 'classified intelligence channels for reporting UFO's that completely bypassed Bluebook' and government docs also exist which state that 'UFO reports that were a threat to national security weren't even part of the Bluebook system' (link) - here's Stanton discussing how Dr Hynek was quite upset about it.

Dr Hynek - not happy

Another important aspect of the cover-up is the October 20, 1969, statement by USAF Brigadier General Carroll Bolender, while reviewing Project Blue Book, with which he had no previous connection: “Moreover reports of UFOs which could effect national security are made in accordance with JANAP 146 and Air Force Manual 55-11 and are not part of the Blue Book System.” Two paragraphs later he noted “However, as already stated, reports of UFOs which could affect national security would continue to be handled through the standard Air Force procedures designed for this purpose.” I spoke with Bolender and it was clear that he understood the distinction between civilian reports and ones which could effect national security. Clearly the sightings of most interest are the ones that could effect national security. Blue Book wasn’t even on the distribution list for sightings reported under JANAP 146 or AF Manual 55-11. I well remember the frustration expressed by Blue Book Scientific consultant Dr. J. Allen Hynek when I told him about the Bolender memo at a West Coast MUFON Symposium in 1979. He felt very used.

But if they weren’t part of Project Blue Book, where were the important cases documented? Why haven’t we been told about them? Why does the USAF always respond to queries about UFOs by referring to Blue Book and the fact that it was announced as being closed in December, 1969?

link

Links:

1967: THE OVERLOOKED UFO WAVE AND THE COLORADO PROJECT
BLUE BOOK LIES

reply to post by karl 12


Yes, and the "5%" view on unexplained sightings is constantly repeated without suspicion by just about everyone. It's become almost an excuse for speaking seriously about the subject, by limiting the general public's ability to comprehend what they experience, to a very small percentage. I never did believe a 95% dismissal rating.

Most of the time when governments are looking for UFO's they are looking for invading aircraft, missiles and drones from other countries. So when they are saying something is worth studying they are almost certainly worried about military tech etc.

Most of the sightings are so mundane that they are just not worth the effort in trying to investigate. If someone looks at something like a balloon in the sky and thinks its not a balloon even if everyone else around them knows its a balloon the first person can claim its an unexplained sighting because no one 'investigated' it and 'proved' it was a balloon. They then label it as 'unproved' or 'unexplained'.

So the idea that 90% of sighting are 'unexplained' doesn't really surprise me or prove anything significant. I would agree with the original figure that only 2% of sightings are interesting but that only because they are slightly different than most. Also they could be foreign tech that needs looking into or unknown weather anomalies that could effect aircraft. I would estimate the REALLY interesting cases that might even stand a chance of be visiting aliens are so rare they are in the hundreds of a single percentage range.

as someone who has seen UFO's on more than one occasion in Northern California, I can only assume that the numbers are skewed. I know when I see a unidentified flying object and when I see a balloon. people that sit at the computer all day and night aren't going to have a clue as to the real numbers and no one is going out and getting real numbers so we are stuck with speculation. flying objects that don't meet the criteria for everyday helicopters and airplanes, balloons and swamp gas (lol), happen all the time. chances are better than 99.9% that aliens are real and have and do visit earth. its not sci fi - its extrapolation of the infinite(see endless) cosmos.

It amazes me that people can look right at millions of star's and wonder are we alone. we are not.

Great thread as always mate but it doesn't matter on the 5 percent of what thing, those that have delved into the subject enough, know fine well that even .01 percent makes the subject valid. The most important cases are there with absolutely no feasible explanation on the information provided.

don't forget the one ufo incident that has been explained; roswell.

with over 2 dozen witnesses, a military press release confirming a crashed ufo, later retracted, and an apollo astronaut, edgar mitchell, who claims to have seen military documents confirming the crashed ufo plus his own conversations with old-time military men who also confirmed the event, but added a little side note; presidents were stopped being briefed after kennedy.

They have no physics to explain the UFO even if a real ship existed which
they don't identify any as real to begin with. So its a big lie game.

The skewing that goes on is not limited to just UFO reports either. Every branch of government fudges their statistics to hide the true numbers, to appease the masses, to avoid negative opinion. This is the reality we live in. What is scary is the fact that people don't care as long as it doesn't affect their paycheck, because the government will naturally try to keep public opinion positive.

It's a bit out of control I'd say.

Yuh know, I just don't understand why the masters of puppets won't finally inform the citizens of planet Earth that our secret Black space program made contact decades ago with an Alien species on their colonized planet Titan, which is actually one of Saturn's moons, and that we have visted them more than a few times?

How about also finally disclosing the fact that this Alien species placed the rings around Saturn in order to eventually make it inhabitable for them?

Is keeping a 2000 year old religious hoax fairy tale that originated in the desert on one single planet among billions in this universe true really worth deceiving mankind just in order to control the foolish sheople? I mean, they keep slowly feeding us this technology that they have aquired from these Aliens much like drug dealers trying to get a potential junkie hooked. It's unbelievable really. Very selfish these Lords of lies are.

Read between the lies my friends. ~$heopleNation

Never believe those in power, pure and simple. I have seen alot of weird things in the sky and when i tell friends and family, some of those usually ask how come they never see any thing? it's probably because they never look up!!

But I have never bought the saying that only 5% cannot be explained, that would mean literally millions of sighting reported each year, if i use the amount that i have seen in the past few years are any thing to go by.

reply to post by karl 12


A very wise person once told me, no mans eyes nor ears are any better than the next, age and education plays no part in what you witness. When it comes to things like this, you can say he/she puts their pants on just like you do!

reply to post by karl 12


The military is lying, that is one of the things they have to be good at. Deception.

Originally posted by panicman66
Never believe those in power, pure and simple. I have seen alot of weird things in the sky and when i tell friends and family, some of those usually ask how come they never see any thing? it's probably because they never look up!!

Well my friend, you bring up an interesting point. I have discussed that subject many times.

So why is it that folks don't look up or witness anything odd more often? The answer is the fact that most of us have a roof over our heads. Early Man lived under the stars and he was meant to fall asleep while looking at them. Long ago, we may have had a roof as well in most cultures, but we spent much more time outdoors than our weak minded selves do now.

I mean think about it? We were born to witness whatever the stars and Universe means to show us. The fact that most of us live our entire life rarely seeing the stars that are above us is a tragedy for mankind.

Thank god I like to Backpack in the highcountry, take long walks during the evening at home, and also spend a lot of time soaking in a hot tub prior to hitting the sack otherwise, their wooden or fabricated shingles surely would have cloaked my views of this unbelievable Universe. Every Human should look at the stars every single night if they can.

As human beings, we owe it to ourselves, and our children to install a glass roof on top of every one of our homes. Some people would consider that insane, but it's the conformists who wish us all to live inside caves that are the true lunatics.

Oh well, I am sure they can apply those funds much better somewhere in the Middle East.~$heopleNation

The Air Force has nothing to do with these UFO ships which may be classified as
experimental headed up by some assigned group. The Air Force involvement is as
much as the public in all kinds of descriptive data and wild assumptions if they were
allowed assumptions. Air Force is not even involved in any rescue perhaps as
the operation has their own rescue fleet and if any Air Force fly by that might
be all there is or allowed to do.

So all we get is a numbers evaluation.
Leaving many questions un answered officially.

Thanks for the replies - here's a relevant vid showing a really great interview with Dr Hynek from Project Bluebook, it's relevant because he states about 20 percent of Bluebook cases could not be explained and that patterns in UFO behaviour appear globally - he also states that the Condon report was a 'travesty on science'; that Dr Condon never investigated even one case and that Dr Condon wrote the summary whilst completely neglecting the contents of the report.

Historic Film Stock

The Amazing World of Kreskin (1972-1975) Show No. 43

Video Link

Originally posted by six67seven

The skewing that goes on is not limited to just UFO reports either. Every branch of government fudges their statistics to hide the true numbers, to appease the masses, to avoid negative opinion. This is the reality we live in. What is scary is the fact that people don't care as long as it doesn't affect their paycheck, because the government will naturally try to keep public opinion positive.

It's a bit out of control I'd say.

Six67seven, thanks for the post mate and I'd say so too - I'm sure you're right about the 'fudging' of official stats but when it comes to studies of the UFO subject by the U.S. Government (and the subsequent USAF 'explanations'), they really have taken the bullsh*tometer to a whole new level.

Not only were the statistical methods employed by Blue Book described as 'a travesty on the branch of mathematics known as Statistics' and not only did Dr Condon write his summary whilst completely ignoring the contents of his own report but it now also looks like the conclusions of the much touted 'scientific and impartial' Robertson panel were already arrived at one year before by their 'sponsors', the CIA.

This memo to the Director of CIA indicates that what would be the recommendation of the Robertson Panel was already determined a year before: flying saucers cause to threats to the national security: one psychological threat (risks of mass panic may be exploited by the "enemy"), and the other an air security threat (neglect of UFO alerts may cause neglect of "enemy" air attacks.)

It also shows that CIA estimated current efforts of UFO research insufficient as far as national security is concerned and that the problem must be escalated to higher levels.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/e96198aff8c0.gif[/atsimg]


link

Cheers.

Article dealing with Blue Book Special Report 14, the 4602d Air Intelligence Service Squadron and the mystery of extra 1000 unexplained UFO incident reports which went missing along the way:

Special Bluebook Report Number 14 (Declassified - 1955). This report consisted of a detailed analysis of UFO reports received by the Air Force from 1947 through 1952. The press release of the report contained a brief synopsis of reports received in early 1955. This was a good report, but the Air Force deliberately tried to mislead the public. The report actually showed that 21.5% of the sightings were unknowns. However, the first page of the report contains the press release which stated that only 3% percent of the sightings were unknowns. (This only represented reports received in early 1955 and not reports in the actual study which covered 1947-1952.) The Air Force also tried to weight the report by removing astronomical phenomena from the study. This had an effect of showing that known and unknown sightings were more similar (using characteristics such as color, speed, number of objects, aerial maneuvers etc.) However, dropping astronomical phenomena didn't much difference in the outcome of the report, but it illustrates how the Air Force was trying to deceive the public. In other words the Air Force didn't appear to want the public to know the results of there own study of UFOs.
It is also worthy of noting that Air Force Blue Book recorded 2,344 sightings in the 1947 through 1952 time period. Special Report Number 14 said that the Air Force recorded 3,201 reports. This is nearly one thousand more reports than listed by Blue Book. Where did the extra reports come from? Many suspect that these reports were collected by the 4602 AISS and that only reports which had more mundane explanations ever reached Blue Book.

Link

reply to post by nrd101


I agree that it´s very likely that aliens exist, but as for visiting earth, no.
The universe is big, and i mean BIG!.
The distances are beyond comprehension, so the chances of any one even discovering
this insignificant blue speck among all the galaxies and their planets,
is a hell of a lot less than "99,9 %",
let alone that they would choose to visit us,
the chances of that happening are microscopic.

There is so much information out there regarding the truth about ET's and UFO's. One such piece of information is an interview by a real Star Being called Itasha. She has recently began disclosing herself and talks about her home planet and what her star brothers and sisters are like. Check it out:

www.youtube.com...