SHTF Scenario: Fast Exodus From Urban Areas or Slow Trickle into the Countryside?

I started to re-think the SHTF scenario and how people in urban areas might react. Unless there is an urgent need to leave an urban area due to some natural or man made disaster, the people living there wouldn't leave en mass.

Initially, when considering what I would do in a SHTF situation, I thought about it from the point of view that there would be a hasty retreat by city dwellers into the surrounding countryside. During summer I see vacationing city folk invading my neck of the woods every weekend. I witness the lack of respect for the local businesses and residents. I see people going nuts because they are out of the city. They tear up and down the side roads with ATVs and motorcycles, they party hard, get crazy and waste a ton of ammunition playing with guns, and they treat the locals like uneducated, barefoot, toothless hicks (true about some locals I must admit). I could go on and on about how the citidiots act on the weekends or during hunting season, the point being is that I thought of this as a mild sample of what it would be like during an exodus from the city.

Now I'm thinking that it may be more like a slow trickle of people before anything hits the fan. Early bird preppers, victims of mortgages, homeless bums, down and out relatives of people that already live here, these types will be slowly trickling in the area long before any disaster happens. The economy and personal situations would motivate people to move out of the city and live at their vacation properties or squat in cabins and abandoned homesteads. Seems to be a scenario that is not as extreme as a sudden flood of citidiots over running the place, but it would eventually get over crowded and crazy never the less.

I'm now expecting to see people on extended "camping trips" and to see tent cities popping up on state and federal lands. The local community has a hard enough time supporting a small resident population year around, how would we react to the slowly creeping masses from the city? Undoubtedly we would be charitable at first, but increasing numbers would put a huge strain on our resources and civility.

Anyway, I'm considering now that perhaps the SHTF city exodus will be a relatively slow process. I'd like to hear some opinions on this idea. Thanks for any replies in advance and a star for each one.

MSB

Just depends on the situation....some people will leave...most wont....I live in a suburb that is about five to seven miles out from any urbanization. The surrounding area is farmland. I would probably bug in. If the area can get organized, I think we do ok.

When and if TSHTF,many people are going to freeze in place,not knowing how to react.

It takes resources to head for the hills,and many are operating on a thin line between living on the street and scraping by in poverty now.

Most of them wouldn't know how to go on an extended camping trip,let alone be able to afford to.

Anyone with half a brain would make a sincere effort to keep a low profile anyway.

Double post

I believe many, within cities, will be bags packed and on stand-by in a 'wait n see' status.


Now days, So many have the mindset to stay put and wait on the government to come rescue or protect them while they just sit there and complain.

Those who are experienced and know how to survive without government might be the only one's trickling out when they can clearly see the writing on the wall.

Staying in the city is not a good idea, If we are in a situation of being invaded, cities are targets...enemy footholds. You're held to Marshall Law, your precious metals and guns confiscated.


Gangs will develop with combined arms and start going door to door invading homes, killing and stealing from you, and because you (not you op those who know who they are) don't believe in guns you don't stand a chance to protect your family.

First sign of trouble I'll be heading out with my family to Texas, little patch of land I bought some time back, more guns there than anywhere.

reply to post by Lonewulph


I wouldn't see early bird preppers as a huge problem, they might even be an asset. It's the desperate people who think they have no other choice I would worry more about. Swelling numbers of unprepared refugees would cause some big problems. I wouldn't want to have to deal with the barbaric violence that will undoubtedly overtake the cities.

I suppose that a slow migration of desperate and disillusioned refugees could be useful if they were treated with kindness, humanity and given some leadership. A desperate, angry, and hungry group of people would be hard to organize, however, it seems like it could be used in a positive way somehow.

Stay back city dwellers, the trees out here will mess with your head.

I think most people in the city are not prepared (mentally, physically and with materials) to rough it and wouldn't even consider it. i know im generalizing but most will probably stay right where they are or go to emergency centers provided by the government. others will get in their cars and get stuck on freeways, other will get on planes if they can and go stay with relatives far far away. a slow trickle for sure, no mass exodus, people will stay close to home, family and relatives.