October Surprise: Jobs Report Rigged to 7.3%

The next jobs report will be out Friday, November 2nd, four days before Election Day.

According to Paul Conway, chief of staff to Bush’s Labor Secretary Elaine Chao, these jobs numbers can be manipulated. Here’s what he had to say:

“They [BLS staff] produce a product, that is then subject to the review, and approval and processing of political appointees in the department. That’s a fact-that’s exactly how it works before anything goes public.”

Read More:

Here’s how the monthly unemployment numbers in the Department of Labor’s household survey are compiled. The Census Bureau surveys about 60,000 representative households, asking how many adults are working and unemployed. They hand the numbers off to career civil servants at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, who crunch them to get the unemployment rate, the number of people currently employed, and other statistics.

“Numbers can be manipulated,” says Paul Conway, who was chief of staff to Secretary of Labor Elaine Chao under President George W. Bush. Conway now runs a conservative advocacy group, Generation Opportunity, trying to galvanize the youth vote. “They [BLS staff] produce a product, that is then subject to the review, and approval and processing of political appointees in the department. That’s a fact—that’s exactly how it works before anything goes public.”

Conway says political appointees didn’t change the numbers when he was at the Department of Labor. But he says of today’s report: “I find it at best incredible, and at worst suspicious.”

Could the jobs statistics be rigged? by Mitchell Hartman

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ADP is using a brand new formula to calculate the October’s jobs report to be issued November 1st. This new formula is altered to create a better alignment with government data due to instances where the two reports differed sharply.

Understanding ADP’s new way to count jobs By Jeffry Bartash

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Romney supporters, if you thought Gallup was in the tank for Romney, think again. Remember David Axelrod and the Obama DOJ suing Gallup?

Gallup currently shows a 7.3% unemployment rate. Why didn’t any media outlets mention this rate? Is this the October Surprise (November 2nd)?

Gallup Daily: U.S. Employment

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Many will be paying attention to next Friday's report. This could be the October surprise.

-au

There's no doubt the "number" will be lower.

The manipulations are the magic wand.

But the voters will be the final tally makers.

All those millions who are either still unemployed or stuck at some bum job will deliver the bacon.

Too many on assistance would rather be back at a normal job and lifestyle.

The chronics don't care either way and probably won't vote.

It was easier to fool people in 2008. This is 2012.

Team Obama said in ’09 stimulus would have unemployment below 6% by 2012

reply to post by xuenchen


Did you see how much outrage the last unemployment numbers caused? And that's going from 8.1% to 7.8%.

BTW, you're spot on. It's 2012 now, and everyone can smell it. Numbers get cooked, but where are the jobs?

People are not stupid. They know.

reply to post by alternateuniverse


Those numbers have, IMO, been manipulated since the crash in 2007. Having said that? A year ago just about everyone I knew was either unemployed, underemployed, or living in utter terror of being fired or laid off. Now? It seems to have improved - again only so far as my real world POV goes. Several family members who were unemployed or underemployed are back to having good jobs, and a few friends also have gotten back to their pre 2007 levels of income.

But I still know quite a few people who are hurting. Those who had very specialized, office based skills, are the ones who are doing better now. But those who worked in other fields, like construction, sales, manufacturing? They are in a bad way still. And they've all fallen out of the jobs numbers because their unemployment benefits dried up already. One friend, as an example, was a brick mason, making probably on the order of 60-70K per year, I would guess... now he's working part time at a fast good drive through because it's the only job he could find.

I can only assume that my real world POV is not unlike that of others... and that no matter what numbers they try and shove down our throats... most of us will look around and decide just how bad or good things are based upon our own experience and perception.

~Heff

The U4 and U6 jobs report have both shown a yearly drop in numbers ever since Obama took office. They are only going on about it now to hype up fears, beat the propaganda drum for elections.

*sighs*
Sad times for America when propaganda rules the media and political scene. Quite a few great Americans gave there lives... For freedom of propaganda and spin.

3rd Quarter GDP Report Out Later Today At 8:30 AM EST

According to Reuter's survey of economists, the report is expected to show the U.S. economy expanding at a sluggish rate of 1.9%. Not enough to make any significant impact on the unemployment rate. Ahead of the report, stocks futures and commodities are sliding.

The U.S. third quarter GDP data, due at 8.30 a.m. EDT, is expected to show that the world's biggest economy is expanding at a sluggish annual rate of 1.9 percent, according to a Reuters survey of economists.

The modest expansion is still seen as falling short of what is needed to make much of a dent in unemployment, and will offer little cheer for the White House a little more than a week before the November 6 presidential election.

Ahead of the GDP data, commodity markets were all sliding, reflecting the concern that any growth coming from the U.S. will struggle to offset the slowdown caused by Europe's debt crisis and its effects on Asia's giant export industries.

Read More:
Shares slide ahead of GDP on earnings worries By Richard Hubbard

I can't wait to see Rick Santelli's response on CNBC if these numbers are a surprise again.
He'll go ballistic. Watch him at 830 Eastern time on CNBC on November 2.

Originally posted by fltcui
I can't wait to see Rick Santelli's response on CNBC if these numbers are rigged again.
He'll go ballistic. Watch him at 830 Eastern time on CNBC on November 2.

yeah...apparently the numbers weren't "rigged' all these pass years when the numbers were high, and every friggin' right winger was bashing obama for slow growth,.... but now, they are going lower....and only now, are they rigged
THIS IS WHY LIBERALS DON'T TAKE RIGHT-WINGERS SERIOUSLY

Today's GDP report:

2%

But it’s worth remembering just how subject to error these early GDP estimates are. For example, the second quarter GDP numbers were revised down from an initial estimate of 1.7 percent to 1.3 percent. According to the BEA, the average revision in either direction is 0.5 points between the first and second estimate, 0.6 between the first and third, and 1.3 between the first and last. That’s a huge amount of error. Here’s how revisions have looked from 2008 to the first quarter of 2012:

Article and Graph of How Revisions Have Looked From 2008 to the First Quarter of 2012:
Don’t believe the GDP report! Posted by Dylan Matthews

Its no mystery that the unemployment numbers are in the double digits.. My guess is around 15-20%.

Has anyone noticed magically that gas prices have fallen?

Here is an interesting article about the Real unemployment numbers....

Because this measure does not reflect well changes in the economy, I have developed an alternative to it. In my alternate calculation, I compare the current labor force to where we would expect it to be in a solid economic expansion: labor participation rate of 67%. The difference between these two is my measure of the undercount.

.67(243.772 million) = 163.327 million (where the labor force should be)
163.327 million — 155.063 million = 8.264 million (the real undercount)

This is a decline of 280,000 from the August figure of 8.544 million. This is the capture of the undercount that the BLS misses.

With this number we can now go back and calculate where the U-3 and U-6 really are, that is the real unemployment and real disemployment rates.

Real unemployment: 12.088 million (U-3 unemployment) + 8.264 million (undercount) = 20.352 million (down 736,000 from August)

Real unemployment rate: 20.352 million / 163.327 million = 12.5% (down from 12.9% in August)

Real disemployment: Real unemployment + involuntary part time workers = 20.352 million + 8.613 million = 28.965 million (down 154,000 from 29.119 million in August)

Real disemployment rate: 28.965 / 163.327 million = 17.7% (down from 17.8% in August)

The Curious Case of the Part Time Worker: The BLS Jobs Report Covering September 2012

How can you rig the job report....? All you have to do is go around n see its ****....

Another thing that may soon change the BLS stats is the definition of "Part Time".

The BLS uses "under 35 hours" per week as the cutoff for full time / part time.

A clause in ObamaCare has full time defined as 30 hours or more.

Obamacare Mandate: Anyone Who Works 30-Hour Week Is Now 'Full-Time'

Jobless rate should be 7.9%. We'll see on Friday.

He is expecting an increase of 140,000 jobs while the jobless rate to ticks up to 7.9 percent. "Layoffs remain very low, but so does hiring," Zandi said. "Businesses will remain cautious and won’t increase their hiring until policymakers address the fiscal cliff, the debt ceiling and long-term deficit reduction."

Hall outlined two scenarios for the jobs report: modest growth of about 120,000, similar to last month, combined with either a rise in the unemployment rate or a fall in labor force participation; or an increase in job growth, more than 150,000, with no change in the unemployment rate. He suggested that the first option is more likely because economic growth, which came in at 2 percent in preliminary estimates for the third quarter, doesn’t support a larger increase in job growth.

But Hall and other economists are concerned that economic growth is too low to produce more jobs and a decline in business investment, an early predictor of job growth, doesn't bode well for the final three months of the year.

"I find this a genuine concern since it is suggesting that job growth may decline in the fourth quarter," Hall said.

Josh Bivens, research and policy director a the Economic Policy Institute, called the 2 percent, "too slow to support solid job growth."

Campaigns hope to receive boost from economic data ahead of election day
By Vicki Needham

Record use of foodstamps.

YEP!

Happy days are here again!

They can fudge the numbers all they want. They can tout certain numbers but can't hide the 49 million foodstamp users.

THAT is Obama's legacy.

Hurricane Sandy may delay the jobs report on Friday.

Hmmm... Hmmm... Hmmm...

Update: Labor Department working hard to ensure jobs report released on time.

“It is our intention that Friday will be business as usual,” said Carl Fillichio, a senior press advisor at Labor. Mr. Fillichio’s statement provided clarity to an earlier Labor statement that said the agency would assess how to handle data releases this week after the “weather emergency” is over.

It is unclear, however, whether additional prep work needs to take place before the employment data is made public. The shutdown of the Washington region’s public transportation system and strong winds and heavy rain could make it difficult for workers to report to their offices.

UPDATE: Labor Department ‘Working Hard’ to Ensure Jobs Report Released on Time. By Eric Morath

reply to post by alternateuniverse

UPDATE: Labor Department ‘Working Hard’ to Ensure Jobs Report Released on Time. By Eric Morath

I bet they plan to delay the report until Monday !!
(unless they can get the number down further that is)

And what a choice of words !!

‘Working Hard’

I wonder how regular people who want to be "working hard" will take that ?

I say they vote for Romney !!

reply to post by xuenchen


They will cook the numbers and release them at the last minute so no one can analyze them the day before elections.

Gallup shows unemployment at 7.1% as of October 28, 2012.

Gallup Daily: U.S. Employment
Each result is based on a 30-day rolling average; not seasonally adjusted

However, according to a CNBC report:

Revisions to the way payroll data firm ADP counts private sector job creation have resulted in a sharp drop in the September employment count.

ADP's new calculations put the monthly job creation at just 88,200, down from the 162,000 the firm originally reported earlier this month.

The firm recently has entered into a partnership with Moody's Analytics that will change the way the private payroll count is calculated.

The new private payroll count now is actually under Labor's September job creation household survey net total of 114,000, 104,000 of which came from the private sector.

The unemployment rate dropped last month to 7.8 percent. Separately, as the government's establishment survey said the total number of new private-sector workers swelled by 873,000.

Expectations:

Economists expect Friday's report to show 125,000 new jobs and the jobless rate to hold steady.

The soft ADP count could add credence to those who believe the pace of job creation is slower than the government's numbers indicate.

"It's huge, no doubt about it," said Todd Schoenberger, managing principal at the BlackBay Group in New York. "Their changing the methodology tells me that if the number is cut in half with that revision, then the revision we're going to see Friday is going to be a disaster."

ADP will announce their jobs numbers today and we will see the BLS's report tomorrow. Stay tuned.

Originally posted by beezzer
Record use of foodstamps.

YEP!

Happy days are here again!

They can fudge the numbers all they want. They can tout certain numbers but can't hide the 49 million foodstamp users.

THAT is Obama's legacy.

Food Stamps have little to nothing to do with unemployment numbers. They have everything to do with low income earners. You know those people that once had good paying manufacturing jobs that are now working at Wal-Mart. That is Romney's and Bain's legacy theirs and the people like them. You know Corporate Raiders that don't actually make anything other than money from stealing peoples pensions.