posted on Oct, 19 2004 @ 03:06 PM
I believe it was intentional all right, but not in the way some suggest. But it backfired and seems to be bringing about exactly what was set out to
beundermined.
The U.S treasury and economy can sustain a massive downturn, more so than any other nation because it is the U.S dollar that most trade is tied to.
Take oil for example. It does not matter how high the price of that commodity, a U.S dollar will always be worth a dollar. But 1 euro or 1 yen or 1
bolivar when faced with a higher U.S dollar in trade, will never be worth 1 euro, or yen, or bolivar. The cost of doing business with the U.S for
purchasing US products becomes expensive.
The trade deficit between the US and Europe was growing rapidly since 2001, meaning that imports exceeded exports. The EU was also taking shape and
threatening to become a powerful unity, backed by the use of a single currency, a currency which was being considered as a replacement of the USD in
OPEC, the consequences of which would not only signal the possible beginning of a new trade currency, but an immediate increase of its value. The US
would then be faced with purchasing its most needed product with a dollar that purchased less oil than before, and subject to unfavourable exchange
fluctuations as the price of crude was increased in the Euro.
While it is so that the US imports more from around the world than it exports, many of the products imported from Europe are also purchased elsewhere,
countries whose currencies are still valued less than the USD; Canada, Mexico and South America, and increasing import from those countries would keep
the cost still relatively inexpensive. Keeping the USD low, as was the stated intent by Snow, was going to bring about heartache for importers of
European goods, drive businesses into bankruptcy and the US economy down, but as the wealthiest country in the world with the controlling currency, it
can take that massive hit. The object was to reduce the trade deficit with Europe by making the cost of importation prohibitive. Europe's economy
highly dependent on export to the US would fall apart, the Euro would go into a tailspin and the budding EU would crumble. Talk of OPEC switching
currency would fade and the mighty greenback survives.
Once in full control again, the debt recorded on the books in US dollars miraculously starts to decline as the purchases which were not subject to
trade in US dollars have lost a significant value due to foreign exchange.
But the ploy backfired, the war drove a wedge between the key EU nations and the US, and Blair could not fix it. In fact, import balances from the EU
did drop significantly, but the EU nations grew in size, dug their heels in and resisted the overthrow. The resistance lasted longer than intended
causing the US economy to slide past the threshold of a minor disruption. While the war in Iraq made matters worse with the constant attacks on the
Iraqi oil pipelines seriously disrupting the much needed increases in oil and doubling the price of crude in US dollars but not having the same effect
on the now inflated Euro.