Poll: Obama opens substantial leads in key swing states or does he?

So this morning's New York Times/Quinnipiac/CBS News poll show Obama up by 10 points in Ohio, 12 in Pennsylvania and 9 in Florida.

Pollin g Data

However, when you look at the data, it's not so clear:

In Ohio, the poll breaks down to 35% independent, 35% democrat, and 26% republican. When you skew a poll by 9% in favor of one party you will get skewed results.

If you eliminate the democrat and republicans polled and look strictly at the independents (who in my opinion will truly determine who wins the election) you have Romney ahead 47% to 46%.

In Florida, the poll breaks down 33% independent, 39% democrat and 28% republican. Again, if you remove the democrats and republicans you have Romney ahead 49% to 46%

In Pennsylvania, the poll breaks down 27% independent, 39% democrat, 28% republican. For some reason the polling data does not break down independents in PA (too big of a lead for Romney?).

So, this race is a lot closer than what is being reported.

You won't see these breakdowns in the MSM. They will only report the skewed/biased top numbers of the polls. They are assuming that the turnout will be exactly the same percentages as in 2008. In 2008 a large number of republicans stayed home because they were disillusioned with McCain. Anyone with an ounce of sense can see republicans are more energized than they were in 2008 and will turn out in much greater numbers this time.

However, as I stated earlier, I believe this race will come down to independents and the data slightly favors Romney at this point in time.

This is why you've noticed the recent Gallop poll citing that a record number of Americans no longer trust the MSM.

60% of Americans have little to no trust in MSM

We see it for what it is - PROPAGANDA!!!

Sadly, there is very dim portion of the population - many of whom I know personally - who are incapable of linking logical thought with facts - who eat up ANYTHING the MSM throws their way.

I've said before and it bears repeating - statistics are like prisoners, you can get them to tell you anything if you torture them enough!

The way the MSM continues to carry Obama's torch is amazing! WTSHTF - and we all know it will - and we replace this faulty government and arrest the crooks - I suggest we remember these talking heads who would so willingly roll out the propaganda on a daily basis and save a piece of rope for them as well.

It's because there are more registered democrats than republicans in those states.

reply to post by afeent1

Obama has hired a company, owned by George Soros, to count the November presidential vote, in Spain. This might be called "Plan B" if the electorate fail to provide the "correct answer". Can you say, in the bag?

I believe he is going to win and I believe the polls showing him so far ahead are probably accurate. However, the only poll that really matters is the one in November. And the polls could easily play see-saw during the debates ... but in the end I think Obama will win. Unfortunately.

This whole process from polls to the results is on par with WWE for realism.

Dont waste time worrying, arguing or otherwise expressing any concern over such fiction.

Stay home or go do something else with your time rather than give them the satisfaction of validating the charade.

They only exist because we still believe in them. Stop clapping and let Tinkerbell die once and for all.

Now that's some grass roots support!
Not being a smart ass but Romney could use more supporters like you.
Obama ahead in every poll, most by double digits,
and you deduce this as a win for Romney.

Originally posted by PatrickGarrow17
It's because there are more registered democrats than republicans in those states.

oh, c'mon, stating a fact will not get you very far in the political discourse of ATS. you have to simply drop the idea of having any critical-thinking skills, it goes against the grain of so many political posters.

reply to post by afeent1

When you skew a poll by 9% in favor of one party you will get skewed results.

I don't think you understand how this polling works. They don't have a list of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents that they call, it doesn't work like that.

They have a list of registered voters, from there they take a random sample and conduct the poll. During the poll, they ask the participants what they identify as.

The reason you are seeing the Republican percentages so low isn't because the polsters are skewing the data, it is because many Republicans are no longer identifying themselves as Republicans. This is the exact same reason why the Independent numbers are so high, many Republicans, due to their disgust of their party, are now identifying as Independents.

There is no "skewing" of the polls, it is a real world shift in demographics. Now people can try to manipulate this data and say the polls aren't correct and try to "adjust" the polls to a demographic of more of their liking, but that is just done out of desperation to keep the Republican voter base from freaking out and losing all hope.

The polls are randomized, the percentages of party comes from the real world information, not from the polling company deliberately trying to call more Democrats than Republicans.

Originally posted by HostileApostle
reply to post by afeent1

 

When you skew a poll by 9% in favor of one party you will get skewed results.

I don't think you understand how this polling works. They don't have a list of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents that they call, it doesn't work like that.

They have a list of registered voters, from there they take a random sample and conduct the poll. During the poll, they ask the participants what they identify as.

The reason you are seeing the Republican percentages so low isn't because the polsters are skewing the data, it is because many Republicans are no longer identifying themselves as Republicans. This is the exact same reason why the Independent numbers are so high, many Republicans, due to their disgust of their party, are now identifying as Independents.

There is no "skewing" of the polls, it is a real world shift in demographics. Now people can try to manipulate this data and say the polls aren't correct and try to "adjust" the polls to a demographic of more of their liking, but that is just done out of desperation to keep the Republican voter base from freaking out and losing all hope.

The polls are randomized, the percentages of party comes from the real world information, not from the polling company deliberately trying to call more Democrats than Republicans.

Degree in Statistics here... although you may right in terms of how samples are selected, the result of the sample slection process has introduced an unintentional and uncontrolled bias to the data. Ergo, the poll is neither valid nor reliable. One would anticipate such results when bias is introduced.

More rigorous expulsion of the bias would need to investigated by determining if the samples represent the true measure of the population it purports to measure. I live in Ohio and can tell you that there are more registered Republicans in the state than there are Democrats - albeit a small number (See registered voter data for Ohio here).

As a result, a skewed sample is no longer representative of the overall population and cannot therefore, indicate intent. Like I said... neither valid nor reliable.

ETA: CORRECTION: After evaluating the methods employed, the poll is valid - it measured exactly what it puported to measure. However, it is NOT reliable! There is no correction for sample variance. Ergo it statistically speaking, cannot be a reliable predictor of vote outcome.

Originally posted by sealing
Now that's some grass roots support!
Not being a smart ass but Romney could use more supporters like you.
Obama ahead in every poll, most by double digits,
and you deduce this as a win for Romney.

Did you actually read my post? Look at the numbers. When you poll 9% more democrats than republicans, you are going to get a poll favoring the democratic candidate. Remove the democrat and republican numbers and look at just the independents, who WILL decide this race and Romney is slightly ahead.

And how can you say EVERY poll has Obama ahead. That is just factually not true.

I heard them talking on conservative talk radio Neal Bortz show today about the numbers and even they said Obama is ahead within a sensible margin of error.

They don’t give Obama an inch of slack so I am sure he is ahead.

Originally posted by afeent1

If you eliminate the democrat and republicans polled and look strictly at the independents (who in my opinion will truly determine who wins the election) you have Romney ahead 47% to 46%.

Yes...and if you remove the Democrats and Independants and count only Republicans, you have Romney winning by a landslide!

When the economy started to tank in late 2007, early 2008 under Pres. G.W. Bush....ATS was full of right wing posters explaining how the NUMBERS were wrong! Hoaxed! a Product of the MSM left wing Spin!! Complete BS!!

That is what these ..."Romney is actually winning!...all you have to do is change the numbers!" threads remind me of.

Posting how the economy was actually growing, not shrinking. That unemployment was actually dropping, not rising! And it wasn't just a few...it was the majority there for while...until reality became indisputable.

There is a disconnect where political idealogy is concerned. Flyers is the only Right leaner on this thread with a firm grip on reality. Everyone else seems to be abusing thier logic centers to placate thier idealogical passions.

Mitt is losing...it is not mysterious...he is likely losing by a larger - not smaller - margin than the polls are showing. If anything the MSM benefits from a close horse race and they can't even hide the margin any longer.

It can change in the comming few weeks...but I doubt it. Early voting in Ohio starts next week!

An unprecedented attempt to suppress voters from bothering to show up. They will show up.

Originally posted by afeent1


And how can you say EVERY poll has Obama ahead. That is just factually not true.

The past thirty days...it has been a month and over 40 polls since Romney was even +1.

www.realclearpolitics.com...


Here is the electoral map if the election was held today based on all polls including Swing States
www.realclearpolitics.com...

Right now there is an 80% chance that President Obama will win the Popular Vote....20% Romney wins it.
fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com...

edit on 26-9-2012 by Indigo5 because: (no reason given)

Originally posted by jimmiec
An unprecedented attempt to suppress voters from bothering to show up. They will show up.

Yes..I agree that it was a horrible miscalculation, not to mention unAmerican for the GOP to pass legislation in so many states to supress the minority vote. It's going to backfire in epic proportions in my opinion.

That happened here in Florida last election the GOP was running ads telling Latino voters they shouldn’t even bother voting it isn’t worth it on the TV and radio.

There was an unprecedented turn out.