2012 Investing and Market impact

As an amateur investor I am curious about what impact the 2012 phenomenon will have on the stock market and economy in general. What markets or commodities stand to gain/lose up until the big day?

Here are some thoughts to consider:

1. I've been reading of droughts in the midwest that have the potential to increase food costs up to 30%. The price increase is expected to start impacting us around December-February. However because of the 2012 crazies, should we also expect hoarding of food at the same time to increase prices?

2. If there is a dramatic increase of food costs how will this affect companies that rely on seasonal events such as Christmas, Boxing Day, and Black Friday? Assuming people are spending more on food, that will mean less on toys... IPads, Phones, TVs, and other electronics. Should we dump all our stock in retail outlets(Best Buy, Circuit City, etc..) now and buy them up in the next quarter when losses are made public?

3. Gold and Silver have typically been seen as a way to protect wealth from inflation or economic collapse. As we saw in the 2008-2009 the price of Silver was almost double what it is now, and it was all caused by fear. Top that with the fact many experts believe 100 times more Silver is traded each day than even exists, and a Silver shortage is expected in 5-10 years at its current rate of change in production vs demand. Ironically 50% of all the physical Silver produced used each year in the USA is put into coins and trusts, while the other 50% goes to actual useful purposes. So if a large number of people ran to Silver as a safe haven for their wealth we could see that 5-10 year forecast becoming much shorter. I personally think a physical Silver Trust such as Sprott could be a great short and long term investment.

Anyone else have any thoughts? I'm not trying to prove any of the above statements right, just looking for investment opportunities.


On a related note....During the 2008 recession I put a bunch of money into Seagate(STX) at 3.30$ per share, then sold out around 15.00$. Partially luck, and partially due to the fact that I am an IT professional and have great faith in the brand. Especially after they bought Maxtor and revamped their quality control. If Seagate drops again I will be placing a large portion of portfolio in that company. The only downside I can see would be the fact that I need to use American currency for the transaction. There is too much speculation around the US dollar, and that is a problem considering I am a Canadian. (Any inflation in US dollar could negatively affect the exchange back to CDN$)

reply to post by centrifugal


You should look into other dates like 2000 to have a better idea. I doubt that 2012 alone, disregarding the general state of things and the possibility of war, the increasing power of energy and most non renewable resources with a particular interest to food production that is as will be impacted by climate change will push prices and general uncertainty up.

Tech firms that deal with ameliorating, optimizing things will certainly go up in value from now on. One area that will always boom is the drug companies (discarding the termination of patents) the more well established are always a good bet...

I should have titled this thread, "Absolute proof Nibiru exists". We would be on page 40 with 600 flags.

Actually, track $GOLD here
stockcharts.com...$GOLD
She crashed with the market in 2008, I went long gold at around $715oz. Sold out in 2010@ $1050ish oz. If you like options, you could always buy insurance/hedge. My thesis for the crash price was not only speculators/traders, but also remember TED blowing out and the banks were in a "liquidity" crisis. I traded STX last year, my fundamental thought was inline with yours.

ah Seagate, I remember outsourcing in 1984, a bunch of pissed of people.
America: government jobs and guys like you betting long and betting short.
a Dream far less frequent.

reply to post by centrifugal

I should have titled this thread, "Absolute proof Nibiru exists". We would be on page 40 with 600 flags.

Zombie in the title, best thing.

I actually used the search engine and searched for investment, election and 2012 to find this thread. So kudos to you for being first.

I see it this way. If POTUS wins re-up, then one would want to be in gold and silver. I like the Spyder funds, GLD and SIL I think.

If not, then I have some other ideas which I will post after I get my buy confirmation next week.

Bought today. So here is my pick.

As I stated previously, If you expect Potus to win again, buy gold (GLD) and Silver (SIL) funds or the real thing if you have a good place to keep it. Also Smith and Wesson would be a great pick.

If you expect Mittens to win, here is my pick, a Keystone Pipeline stock , TRP. Oh, and short Smith and Wesson for sure. Today TRP closed at $44.25.

Probably some other good ones along that same line if all of a sudden it is ok to drill for oil again here. The only problem may be that I am late to the party. The pro's always figure this stuff out way ahead of time. But you know what they say, buy on rumors, sell on news. So the strategy is to buy now and then sell if he wins.

finance.yahoo.com... y-shuts-keystone-pipeline-214351649.html

President Barack Obama rejected TransCanada's original application for a federal permit to build the pipeline in January by after congressional Republicans imposed a deadline for approval that didn't allow enough time to address questions about the route through Nebraska.

Chart at Yahoo

More investment ideas based on election results. Problem is, you have to know who will win...

www.manufacturing.net... rid=45586471&linkid=http%3a%2f%2fwww.manufacturing.net%2fnews%2f2012%2f10%2fgun-industry-thrives-under-obama

"Gun owners and hunters fear that a second Obama administration with no future political campaigns to worry about will try to destroy this great American freedom," Arulanandam said.

It is hard to find a single aspect of the gun world that isn't thriving.

Bought TRP at $44.72.

Now up a little, now $45.42

www.fool.com

After the two-day reprieve due to hurricane Sandy, TransCanada is trading higher on Wednesday, after the markets had a chance to react to the company's earnings release from Monday. TransCanada's earnings per share of $0.52 edged-out analyst estimates but, better yet, it's the company's long-term potential that made investors happy. In addition to the $3 billion dollars in projects that went online so far this year, TransCanada has $10 billion more slated for increasing its midstream portfolio by the end of 2015. Besides increasing its revenue base, TransCanada is also strategically positioning itself away from commodity risk exposure by establishing long-term contracts with key customers.

In addition to the steady cash flow potential for TransCanada, savvy investors should look into refiners who stand to benefit from the extension of TransCanada's Gulf Coast, Keystone, and Mainline Conversion projects. All three projects have the potential to supply substantial WTI indexed crude to the Gulf Coast, the East Coast of Canada, and the United States, giving WTI crude access to refiners in these key export locations.