Greater Insight Into Earthquake Cycles

For those who study earthquakes, one major challenge has been trying to understand all the physics of a fault -- both during an earthquake and at times of "rest" -- in order to know more about how a particular region may behave in the future. Now, researchers at the California Institute of Technology (Caltech) have developed the first computer model of an earthquake-producing fault segment that reproduces, in a single physical framework, the available observations of both the fault's seismic (fast) and aseismic (slow) behavior.

Source
(visit the link for the full article)



The article goes on to describe their study of geologic,seismologic and geodetic data in order to form a physical model that may improve the predicting/forecasting range of potential earthquakes on a fault segment.

With the use of this model and future models, they hope assessing seismic hazard levels & the understanding of the physical laws that govern how earthquakes nucleate, propagate, and arrest will improve,although as they state in the article -

"Previous research has mostly either concentrated on the dynamic rupture that produces ground shaking or on the long periods between earthquakes, which are characterized by slow tectonic loading and associated slow motions—but not on both at the same time,"

Earthquake science is still in it's infancy compared to many other areas of study,I admit It is not my area of expertise nor do I personally follow earthquake charts/seismographs.

I still find it very fascinating how it all works and If we are able to take the next step in our understanding & potential forecasting of future earthquakes,in the process saving lives,I am all for it.

There is a good bit I did not cover here so I recommend reading the entire article

This image shows an array of geodetic instruments at the surface of Earth and activity that was modeled on the fault below. The yellow colors indicate the highest speeds of slippage between plates along the San Andreas Fault.
The reddish colors represent slower seismic speeds and the bluish colors indicate slippage at velocity close to the long-term advance of the San Andreas Fault. The dark color indicates a portion of the fault where the velocity is so small that it appears completely locked.
[Credit: Sylvain Barbot / Caltech]

edit on 13-5-2012 by PerfectPerception because: (no reason given)

That is cool.

I wonder why it took so long for someone to do a "Big Picture" study of fault physics?

You should message Puterman, I'm sure he could provide some more insight into this for those of us who are less educated in earthquake stuff.

Cool,
So they may eventually be able to computer animate models of all the known faults and be able to predict when a quake may occur based on the very small movements that go unnoticed and their effect on the fault? ... I think....

Originally posted by PurpleChiten
Cool,
So they may eventually be able to computer animate models of all the known faults and be able to predict when a quake may occur based on the very small movements that go unnoticed and their effect on the fault? ... I think....

I imagine that is the gist of their long-term goal,I am no expert nor do I actively research quakes but I do know that we have only been monitoring seismic activity for a short while,our knowledge is limited presently,at least for predicting earthquakes accurately and as efficiently as we would like.

I think it will take a good bit longer monitoring plate tectonics/earthquakes before we have a firm,absolute grasp,the same could be said of our sun...Then again,we are talking about mother nature here.

The one researcher had this to say towards the end of the article -

"Currently, seismic hazard studies rely on what is known about past earthquakes," he says. "However, the relatively short recorded history may not be representative of all possibilities, especially rare extreme events. This gap can be filled with physical models that can be continuously improved as we learn more about earthquakes and laws that govern them.”

Just when we think we have solved one dilemma,figured out the answer to one of natures mysteries or the cosmos,we come to the realization of just how little we really know,back to the drawing board

Gotta love the riddles of life and existence.

Originally posted by watchitburn
That is cool.

I wonder why it took so long for someone to do a "Big Picture" study of fault physics?

You should message Puterman, I'm sure he could provide some more insight into this for those of us who are less educated in earthquake stuff.

I am not familiar with Puterman,Maybe I will give him a holler see if he would like to add anything , thank you for the response and recommendation

The name of the study from the article is -"Under the Hood of the Earthquake Machine; Toward Predictive Modeling of the Seismic Cycle," for reference.

Off-topic curiosity-
4 flags and only one star Was my original post so atrocious it is undeserving of any love?

I love flags too! no discriminating here,only off topic remarks of the mysteries of the points system/members give & take philosophy etc. One of the greatest,most mind boggling mysteries to ever grace our existence ::twilight zone music fades in:: ( I jest )

On-topic-

I am honestly surprised this did not get more attention,I am not talking flags/stars either. I should of made my own thread title perhaps?

Not that this first computer model by cal-tech is necessarily a stunning,profound breakthrough we could be hoping for but...It is still a step in the right direction as far our understanding and forecasting of earthquakes is concerned. :shrugs:

I admit I did learn a thing or two ,since I am not that familiar with earthquakes overall,for that I am grateful.

Originally posted by PerfectPerception
Off-topic curiosity-
4 flags and only one star

Was my original post so atrocious it is undeserving of any love?

I love flags too! no discriminating here,only off topic remarks of the mysteries of the points system/members give & take philosophy etc. One of the greatest,most mind boggling mysteries to ever grace our existence ::twilight zone music fades in:: ( I jest )

On-topic-

I am honestly surprised this did not get more attention,I am not talking flags/stars either. I should of made my own thread title perhaps?

Not that this first computer model by cal-tech is necessarily a stunning,profound breakthrough we could be hoping for but...It is still a step in the right direction as far our understanding and forecasting of earthquakes is concerned. :shrugs:

I admit I did learn a thing or two ,since I am not that familiar with earthquakes overall,for that I am grateful.

edit on 14-5-2012 by PerfectPerception because: (no reason given)

Nah, you just did so well with presenting it, that it was beyond debate

reply to post by PurpleChiten


That will be the day! Thank you for the vote of confidence.

I would classify this as a thrown together thread I have authored. I just wanted to get the info.out for those who are really interested,not that I am not interested,just not my area of expertise or something I actively follow.

I have authored a couple threads on here where I spent hours and hours trying to perfect and make sure I covered every angle,theory and idea under the sun. Those kind of threads are as much of a joy to create as they are a headache. IMO.