Increased Activity In North Korea (Japan moves to Defcon 4)

From the Japanese newspaper The Yomiuri Shimbun and Reuters:

Increased activity has been observed at about 10 missile bases in North Korea that could be seen as preparation for the launch of a Rodong ballistic missile, sources in the Japanese and U.S. governments said Saturday.

Engineers and vehicles carrying liquid fuel have been seen gathering at North Korean bases housing missiles capable of striking most of Asia and parts of the United States.

The sources said increased activity had been observed not only at missile units, but also in other North Korean army, navy and air force units.

The new moves in the North Korean military were detected by SDF EP-3 electronic surveillance aircraft deployed to gather information, as well as by Japanese and U.S. reconnaissance satellites, and by monitoring wireless communications in the country, the sources said.

This seems to be an awful lot of activity for just a missile test. Also, note that in the article it goes on to say that "In some areas, orders were issued to limit the movement of residents near the bases and military units".

And as I stated in the title, Japan has changed their alert status:

The Defense Agency heightened the defense alert level from defcon 5 to defcon 4, calling for increased information gathering by intelligence headquarters and for surveillance by the Maritime Self-Defense Force.

www.yomiuri.co.jp...

This doesn't look very good.

I know that at each defcom stage there are different protocols but what does the word 'defcom' actually stand for? Sorry for the dumb question.

Jemison

Originally posted by Jemison
This doesn't look very good.

I know that at each defcom stage there are different protocols but what does the word 'defcom' actually stand for? Sorry for the dumb question.

Jemison

Defense Condition. I dont think the DEFCON system is used in the US anymore.

Source

"Defense readiness conditions (DEFCONs) describe progressive alert postures primarily for use between the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the commanders of unified commands. DEFCONs are graduated to match situations of varying military severity, and are numbered 5,4,3,2, and 1 as appropriate. DEFCONs are phased increases in combat readiness. In general terms, these are descriptions of DEFCONs:

DEFCON 5 Normal peacetime readiness

DEFCON 4 Normal, increased intelligence and strengthened security measures

DEFCON 3 Increase in force readiness above normal readiness

DEFCON 2 Further Increase in force readiness, but less than maximum readiness

DEFCON 1 Maximum force readiness.

"In the event of a national emergency, a series of seven different alert Conditions (LERTCONs) can be called. The 7 LERTCONs are broken down into 5 Defense Conditions (DEFCONs) and 2 Emergency Conditions (EMERGCONs)."

DEFCON 4 is not that big of a deal, it is not like Japan is on high alert.

Just that they are aware of what is going on and are alert to the situation.

If you see them go to DEFCON 2 ... WATCH OUT!!

The Japanese always tend to be very cautious if not too cautious about everything....and it wouldn`t surprise me if they reacted only after a possible attack happened....

How long would it take for a missile from North Korea to reach Japan?

not long! is North Korea really in a position to carry this out? what would they gain except for superpowers invading them? Maybe the last throw of communism?

About a year or so ago, NKorea did some missile tests which landed in the Sea of Japan - apparently, as far as Im told, they did this as a threat, in order to get money from the Japanese government....
Maybe they ran out of money and are using the same tactics again....

Some say a missile from NKorea would take about 10 mins or so to hit Tokyo...

And yes, if they did strike...what would happen next?

Here's another example of NK trying to scare its neighbors into giving it economic aid and feeling sorry for them. They won't do anything, their blowing smoke up their arses again. If they do something, however, they better cripple (nuke) Japan, Russia, China, and the US at once, b/c if they don't they'll surely be destroyed.

Originally posted by Sarahko
And yes, if they did strike...what would happen next?

I think Japan is concerned more with a missile test rather than an actual attack at the moment. But even a test alone of a long range missile would have a massive impact on the region and NK would be in violation of agreements they have signed.

Thank you for the clarification of DefCom. I have heard it used many times and never remembered what it stood for.

As for NK, I hope someone finds a way to get them under control ASAP. Too many strange things going on with them that are worrisome.

Jemison

I doubt anything will happen. In fact, I doubt there is even any "activity" going on in North Korea. They said there was a nuclear blast in North Korea, turns out it wasn't.

Actually no, they said there was a particular mushroom cloud/explosion in N.Korea and the media spinned it into "possible nuclear detonation" all the while the Governments of the world said it wasnt.

I've heard a few people ask "what if NK launched on somebody?"

We'll I'm just going to take a wild guess that America is doing what it has always done when somebody is aiming a nuke at us: Put a missile sub right off their coast.

If we assume that anyone who gets attacked automatically strikes back, it looks like this.

Korea launches, we launch back, their missiles hit targets (probably American aircraft carriers or vital resources like oil refineries) PAC 3 THAAD may stop a couple of these, and M-A-Y-B-E we'd find out that America has a secret SDI. Our missiles hit their launch sites and troop positions, destroying their ability to fight us further. We begin airstrikes in advance of an invasion, but China threatens to jump in if we don't sign a cease fire.


Here's the problem. There is a school of thought out there that I call the single nuke theory. A lot of people think you can launch one or two tactical nukes without getting hit back. In some cases they are right.

If Korea ever launches, they are getting hit back- the end. It doesn't matter if they launch on South Korea, Japan, America, or the North Pole. They might not think so though. Korea might believe that they can nuke an American fleet before it gets to them and deter America from striking back.
The problem with this is that America can destroy all of Korea's remaining nukes without Korea getting a chance to fire back, because NK may not be able to detect a sub launch or a bomber coming in until it's way too late.
The result is that NK could nuke us, thinking they were protected by the single-nuke principle, when they aren't.

The real what-if then is how China would react. China could take a low-stakes nuclear reaction, by launching one up at our satellites to blind us. If I were them I'd fire a couple into space to take out our satellites. A nice sound reaction that doesn't get you nuked.

The Vagabond

That's interesting and very plasable. The only trouble i have with it is the nuke from china to knock out theUS satts. It would also knock out their own satts above the field of war. Unless both side have satts that can take the EM pulse from a nuke.

But it'll never happen IMO. It would mean the end of NK as a country.

Originally posted by sweatmonicaIdo
I doubt anything will happen. In fact, I doubt there is even any "activity" going on in North Korea. They said there was a nuclear blast in North Korea, turns out it wasn't.

"They" said? Who's "they"? The South Koreans straight away said they didn't believe it was nuclear, the US over and over again said it wasn't anything nuclear. The only people they were speculating that it might be nuclear were the press and people commenting on it in places like ATS.

Nobody at any time apart from the press suggested it was a nuclear blast.

I don't think the US would go nuclear right away. If the strikes could be done conventionally that's probably what the US would do. But if a large nuke hit a US city or in Japan maybe tactical nuclear strikes would be used.

This is a tiny amount of activity, lets be honest here.

If the military "activity" of the UK, another European country,or the USA or infact every other country was published as liberally as this, we would be suprised just how much there is.

I think we all need to seriously think about why we demonise certain countries and focus on things that are considered the norm in most countries and turn them into a reason to think WW3 is going to happen because of them.

Maybe not WW3 but I hope you see what I mean. We seem to fall into a hatred that lasts many decades.

[edit on 26-9-2004 by Kriz_4]

I agree that any nation could seem threatening if you focused too much on their military activity, however in the case of North Korea, their demeanor has made it somewhat justifiable.

For one thing, Kim Jong Il is said to believe that it is his destiny to eventually confront America has as his father did. This could easily become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Crazy Kim's paranoia against the West is what makes this so much different from tensions with China, Cuba, or even Iran.

Bottom line- a nuclear armed nation that feels backed into a corner against the a larger foe is very very dangerous and SHOULD be paid attention to very closely.

Despite my great wariness over North Korea, I'm not sure about America's handling of the situation. Everyone wants Korea back as a single nation- the real question is will this happen on Kim Jong Il's terms, or on the terms of the South. American military presence can only prevent Kim Jong Il from winning- it can't bring victory for the South. In fact, American presence ensures the continued division of Korea.

The only way to defeat Kim Jong Il is to break his hold on the hearts of the North Korean people. America really isn't a very good candidate to do this, but that's OK because Kim is a threat to everyone. If I were president (and one day I may be) I'd be looking to South Korean or Chinese intelligence to be prepared when Kim Jong Il dies, so that the next Korean leader, regardless of his politics, is someone intent on building the North Korean economy.
A growing economy breeds technology and communication, which weakens the propaganda hold on their people. Furthermore if the North Korean people can be taken out of the conditions that have been blamed on American oppression. Once this is done, all we have to do is back our troops off, with the North Korean people able to see it thanks to enhanced communication that comes with their new economy, and the stage will be set for North and South Korea to start talking about how each nation has to change, and on what time table, in order to bring about reunification.


Back on my point about Chinese retaliation involving a nuclear attack on Satellites: I think that would be OK with them because they know how greatly that reduces our ability to make war by conventional means. No more pictures of far off secret places. No more instant communications. No more GPS to guide troops or weapons. The destruction of our satellites would essentially do everything that heavy UN sanctions would do to us and more. The perfect punishment for the use of nuclear weapons without mass casualties. It would be great for the China's image in the world too- except of course that a lot of countries would want china to replace their sats.
I remember hearing about a wargame in which a restored soviet threat or something of that nature opened an attack on America with such a move. It worked out pretty well. I've long thought that if I were an enemy of America, I'd be thinking about taking out the sats.

Additionally, I doubt America is prepared for this scenario, because if a paper about ASATs (anti satelite missiles) crossed Bush's desk, he'd probably think it was a college admission exam. (Don't shoot- I'm a republican!)