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While it is not possible to be 100% certain that cirrus clouds would not have formed in the absence of aviation activity, the balance of evidence, which includes the spatial coherence of the contrail-induced cirrus and modeling its position, very strongly suggests that the cirrus cloud is of aviation origin.
The recent global modeling study of Burkhardt and Ka¨rcher [2009] suggests that contrail-induced cirrus coverage is dominated by a few major events and that contrail-induced cirrus coverage scales with ice supersaturation rather than contrail coverage
Alternatively, when averaged over a year, the event generated by the AWACS aircraft contributes approximately 2 mW m2 or 0.02% of the annual global mean radiative forcing from persistent contrails from the entire fleet of civil aircraft: 5000 such events per year would need to occur to generate a global annual mean radiative forcing
of 10 mW m2.
These calculations emphasize the importance of obtaining a reliable estimate of the global role of contrail induced cirrus and of understanding the extent to which they add to natural cirrus cover. In this particular instance, because of the distinct pattern of the original contrails, it has been possible to follow, with some degree of confidence, the causal sequence from contrails to contrail-induced cirrus. In normal circumstances this would not be possible, and it will be important to ascertain whether the sequence of events, and the size of the effect, that we have inferred is a regular occurrence.
Last year was the driest year on record in the state and the second-hottest, according to the National Weather Service
The Houston area not only had torrential rain, but some locations also had hail, funnel clouds and flash-flood warnings on Monday. The downpour stranded scores of southeast Texas drivers and left thousands without power, but it's unlikely to ease the drought that has plagued Texas for more than a year.
a coordinated, State-funded program began in earnest in the latter half of the 1990s. Today, with drought a pending, if not ever present, threat to the economy and well-being of Texans, rain enhancement projects flourish within large areas of Northwest, West, and South Texas. In fact, the seven cloud seeding projects today cover nearly 31 million acres (or about 18 percent of the land area of the state).
It is likely that cloud seeding is more effective in non-drought periods. This is because seeding is predicated upon the availability of clouds—especially the right kinds of convective clouds.
Weather modification law in Texas requires the applicant for a permit to publish a "Notice of Intention to Conduct Weather-Modification Operations" in area newspapers for three consecutive weeks. This Notice apprizes the public of its right to request a public hearing on the proposed cloud-seeding project. In the absence of a call for a hearing, a permit application can be processed by the TDLR within 30-60 days.
The phenomenon, known as a distrail, is similar to the formation of a contrail, except that the ice crystals remove water from the cloud droplets instead of from the water vapor in the atmosphere. Thus it creates a hole in the cloud.
The ice crystals grow large enough to snow out of the cloud and leave a hole as they fall into lower, drier layers and evaporate.
Originally posted by Uncinus
Originally posted by luxordelphi
SRM: a bloody nightmare.
Which is why nobody has done it yet, and everyone recommends extensive research before any future deployment, and avoiding that deployment if at all possible
SRM stands for Solar Radiation Management, and it includes all the geoengineering schemes that increase earth’s albedo in order to reflect more sunlight back into space, and in so doing reduce the net irradiance of the earth.
Albedo is the fraction of solar energy (shortwave radiation) reflected from the Earth back into space. It is a measure of the reflectivity of the earth's surface.
Water is much more absorbent and less reflective.
Two types of climate engineering have been recognized: carbon dioxide removal (CDR) stragegies and solar radiation management (SRM).
This third approach might be called earth radiation management (ERM).
The purpose of this chapter is to describe an ERM approach pertaining to cirrus clouds and to test this hypothesis against new, more reliable cirrus cloud measurements.
WTF IS YOUR POINT?????
Meteorologists say people living on Texas' parched plains could see more dust storms as a record drought tightens its grip across the Southwest. At least six sandstorms hit Phoenix this summer, with the most powerful striking on July 5 and measuring a mile high.
The U.S. Drought Monitor map shows an angry red blotch covering almost all of Texas, denoting extreme to exceptional — the most severe — drought conditions. In the past 12 months, just 15 inches of rain have fallen, the driest such period on record.
The question regarding the influence of contrails on drought patterns is a deep one involving many variables. With contrails, the wonderful predictive images of the high ice clouds as harbingers of storms weaves into the more darkly etched human concerns of an economy based on fossil fuels.
there you go again implying that SRM is solely spraying stuff in the atmosphere.
What is a nightmare about reforestation? Or cool roofs? Or grasslands management? Or space mirrors?
Originally posted by luxordelphi
reply to post by Aloysius the Gaul
WTF IS YOUR POINT?????
I love a direct question. My point: assorted aerosols are already being injected into the troposphere, tropopause and stratosphere. It's been going on since the mid-1990's, as I've read. They're called chemtrails.
SRM is in action. It's not a fantasy or in a test stage. It's on. It's not called SRM, for public consumption - it's called sun screen or cooling the planet or other politico-military ditherings. The collateral damage has been extreme. Just a sampling from right here at home:
Originally posted by luxordelphi
reply to post by Aloysius the Gaul
there you go again implying that SRM is solely spraying stuff in the atmosphere.
What is a nightmare about reforestation? Or cool roofs? Or grasslands management? Or space mirrors?
I can't believe you are this naive. THERE IS NO MONEY IN IT.
Yes, and other than your claims, you have presented no evidence that contrails destroy natural clouds or produce drought conditions.
The properties of cirrus aviaticus (fake clouds made from jet emissions) i.e. destroying natural clouds and preventing natural clouds from forming have been extensively discussed
In the late 1990's, coincidental with the onset of chemtrails, a program of cloud seeding began in Texas which initially covered over 50 million acres.
Persistent contrails (and contrail cirrus) have existed for as long as aircraft have flown high enough to produce them.
And experimenting via 'cloud seeding' to create drought which culminates in 2011 with the WORST in history for Texas.
Tests grossly underestimating their effects showed that they were actually cooling the planet - the 9/11 study.
All the stuff you've quoted is about ordinary aircraft exhaust - I thought chemtrails were supposed to be a secret and deliberate plan to add stuff OTHER than aircraft exhaust to he atmosphere?
It may well be actually achieving some SRM - but since that is incidental to the activity of flying I don't see how it fits with chemtrails being a deliberate and extra activity to normal flying.
I didn't ask how much money there is in it, I asked what is the nightmare about it.
A half billion trees died in Texas in 2011, the driest year on record. Millions more could die this year if the drought continues.
Originally posted by luxordelphi
reply to post by Aloysius the Gaul
All the stuff you've quoted is about ordinary aircraft exhaust - I thought chemtrails were supposed to be a secret and deliberate plan to add stuff OTHER than aircraft exhaust to he atmosphere?
Clever fellow. If that's the proof you're looking for, you're going to have to change sides to get it.
It may well be actually achieving some SRM - but since that is incidental to the activity of flying I don't see how it fits with chemtrails being a deliberate and extra activity to normal flying.
Try to stay current. It WAS achieving SRM but now cirrus aviaticus is no longer the fair-haired boy. Something changed in the power structure.
I didn't ask how much money there is in it, I asked what is the nightmare about it.
The sweetly benign SRM proposals that you listed will never be implemented..
because it is cheaper to inject toxic aerosols taken from a rubbish pile, like the strontium
You talk about reforestation and it is meaningless dribble when you consider the trees that Texas alone has lost and will still lose because of the wost drought in history.
Yes, and other than your claims, you have presented no evidence that contrails destroy natural clouds or produce drought conditions.
In addition, the study highlights for the first time that contrail cirrus are capable of reducing natural cloud coverage and optical depth by consuming moisture that would otherwise be available for growth and maintenance of the natural clouds.
Persistent contrails (and contrail cirrus) have existed for as long as aircraft have flown high enough to produce them.
Please explain how cloud seeding creates a drought.
If the cloud isn't precisely downwind from the target area, the rain will fall in the wrong place anyway. And if the seeding is done at the wrong time, or on the wrong cloud, it may cause "cratering," or large holes in the cloud that cause it to fall apart. So an errant effort can destroy the clouds that might otherwise produce rain.
George Bomar, retired Senior Meteorologist of the Texas Natural Resource Conservation Commission has long been a proponent of cloud seeding in Texas. However even he states in a conclusion to one of his papers on cloud seeding, “Seeding at the wrong time and in the wrong place(s) may actually decrease the rainfall. It now seems possible, given continental clouds with weak updrafts, to seed in such ways as to hasten the dissipation of clouds, leading to ‘craters’ in the cloud field.”
Dr. Doswell states “…Cloud seeding requires the presence of a ‘suitable’ cloud for seeding. The definition of ‘suitable’ is such that the cloud might well go on to produce precipitation even if it is not seeded at all! All that seeders can hope to do is wring a bit more out of such a cloud than would otherwise fall. However, production of precipitation produces downdrafts, which kill clouds! This is one of the problems with identifying the true net result of seeding ... the desired effect can kill off the clouds, perhaps prematurely.
Ok...just one more time...contrail cirrus destroy natural clouds. If contrail cirrus destroy natural clouds....
....changes of high (cirrus) cloudiness. An important but poorly explored component of the latter are contrail cirrus, comprising the familiar line shaped contrails and the irregularly shaped cirrus clouds that evolve from them.
Originally posted by luxordelphi
reply to post by Phage
Yes, and other than your claims, you have presented no evidence that contrails destroy natural clouds or produce drought conditions.
Ok...just one more time...contrail cirrus destroy natural clouds. If contrail cirrus destroy natural clouds, contrail cirrus cause drought.
www.dlr.de...
In addition, the study highlights for the first time that contrail cirrus are capable of reducing natural cloud coverage and optical depth by consuming moisture that would otherwise be available for growth and maintenance of the natural clouds.
Persistent contrails (and contrail cirrus) have existed for as long as aircraft have flown high enough to produce them.
????????????????????? I'm not the choir. A persistent contrail is a freak.
Contrail cirrus - always been around?? - I'm thinking no and that's all for that detail. Drought and floods are common but not historic drought and not biblical floods. Cause and effect.
Please explain how cloud seeding creates a drought.
abcnews.go.com...
If the cloud isn't precisely downwind from the target area, the rain will fall in the wrong place anyway. And if the seeding is done at the wrong time, or on the wrong cloud, it may cause "cratering," or large holes in the cloud that cause it to fall apart. So an errant effort can destroy the clouds that might otherwise produce rain.
www.ranches.org...
George Bomar, retired Senior Meteorologist of the Texas Natural Resource Conservation Commission has long been a proponent of cloud seeding in Texas. However even he states in a conclusion to one of his papers on cloud seeding, “Seeding at the wrong time and in the wrong place(s) may actually decrease the rainfall. It now seems possible, given continental clouds with weak updrafts, to seed in such ways as to hasten the dissipation of clouds, leading to ‘craters’ in the cloud field.”
Dr. Doswell states “…Cloud seeding requires the presence of a ‘suitable’ cloud for seeding. The definition of ‘suitable’ is such that the cloud might well go on to produce precipitation even if it is not seeded at all! All that seeders can hope to do is wring a bit more out of such a cloud than would otherwise fall. However, production of precipitation produces downdrafts, which kill clouds! This is one of the problems with identifying the true net result of seeding ... the desired effect can kill off the clouds, perhaps prematurely.
(to be continued...)
The cloud seeding operations which are actually carried out are the seeding of low level cumulus clouds. Your quotes previous to these are about cirrus clouds.
distrails cause ice crystals to precipitate to lower levels.
The ice crystals grow large enough to snow out of the cloud and leave a hole as they fall into lower, drier layers and evaporate.
The same thing happens as the plane flies within the cloud, but it produces a line.
If the layer is dropping or thinning, the holes will remain until the entire deck disappears. The GOES false color loop shows the cloud deck progressing across Texas into Louisiana. As it moves, the holes grow and disappear until this "Swiss cheese" cloud begins to dissipate as it moves over the Mississippi valley.
The phenomenon, known as a distrail, is similar to the formation of a contrail, except that the ice crystals remove water from the cloud droplets instead of from the water vapor in the atmosphere.
Thus it creates a hole in the cloud.
You have claimed this. You have provided no source for this and you have not explained how contrail cirrus cause drought.
contrail cirrus cause drought.
Bomar also says this:
Timing and targeting are critical determinants in seeding clouds for rain enhancement. Seeding at the wrong time and in the wrong place(s) may actually decrease the rainfall. It now seems possible, given continental clouds with weak updrafts, to seed in such ways as to hasten the dissipation of clouds, leading to ‘craters’ in the cloud field.
wrri.nmsu.edu...
The seeding enables the clouds to produce rain more efficiently, as evidenced by measurements of greater rain amounts in seeded clouds that grow to the same height as their non-seeded counterparts.
If you're trying to say that I'm confused - go back to the drawing board.
The TERRA MODIS true color image taken on Jan 29, 2007 at 17:10 UTC shows an altostratus cloud deck over north central Texas that consists of relatively small, supercooled water droplets.
However, altostratus clouds themselves do not produce significant precipitation at the surface, although sprinkles or occasionally light showers may occur from a thick altostratus deck.
Occasionally, these clouds can produce very light precipitation. In dry areas(deserts) the precipitation may be a visible shaft or column coming from the cloud, but it evaporates before it hits the ground(virga is the term for this).
You have presented nothing which indicates that contrails, distrails, or cloud seeding causes droughts.
The sky is falling… sort of. Over the last 10 years, the height of clouds has been shrinking, according to new research.
Clouds that are lower in the atmosphere would allow Earth to cool more efficiently, potentially offsetting some of the warming caused by greenhouse gases.
"We don't know exactly what causes the cloud heights to lower," study researcher Roger Davies of the University of Auckland in New Zealand said in a statement. "But it must be due to a change in the circulation patterns that give rise to cloud formation at high altitude."
Clouds are a wildcard in understanding Earth's climate.
Most of the reduction stemmed from fewer clouds forming at very high altitudes.