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"I won't every say that polls are the end all be all of anything, but, let's be honest, Gallup builds their entire company on polls, and if they are SO wrong SO frequently, no one would hire them to do polls anymore. If you have a source where Gallup is so off the main stream, so out of the truth, please post it. Don't just say "Gallup had Bush ahead 52-39 in Oct 2000" with no link."
One need only go to Gallup's own website and find their polling history. If memory serves, Gallup did have Gore getting as low as 39% of the electorate the week before the election. It struck me as odd then, as everyone was saying how tight the race was. Turns out Bush didn't have a lead at all, nationally...
Gallup is stunningly incompetent:
-- One week before the 2000 elections Gallup showed Bush leading by 13 points.
-- They also had Dewey beating Truman.
-- It's a wonder anyone takes them seriously as a pollster.
2) There is clearly something wrong with their methodolgy:
-- 14 of the last 16 Gallup polls have been the most pro-Bush of any taken at the same time. The odds of that happening randomly are about 1 in 14,000
-- They have consistently oversampled Republicans in their polls -- despite the fact that self-identified Democrats have been at least equal to self-identified Republicans in the every national election of the last 20 years, Gallup chooses to poll more self-identified Republicans than Democrasts.
-- In fact, in the 2000 election, 39% of the electorate described themselves as Democrats and 35% as Republicans. If you weight Gallup polls to those numbers, Kerry would be leading in most of their surveys.
3) Gallup's likely voter model is has been discredited:
-- The formula by which they determine who is a likely voter is bizzare and complex and always inaccurate.
-- Their last poll showed Bush voters 10% more likely to vote than Kerry voters despite the fact that the eletion-day difference between the parties hasn't been more than 4% since at least 1992.
-- Their likely voter model almost certainly leaves out those who didn't vote in 2000 so they aren't even sampling a representative electorate.
4) Gallup is run by a right-wing Republican.
-- Gallup is no longer run by the legendary Frank Gallup. They now are run by a right-wing CEO who has given money this year to support the right wing agenda. This bias is reflected in the polling.
5) Every other poll has shown movement toward Kerry.
-- Bush is fading because of the wrong choices he made in Iraq and the wrong direction he has taken the economy. No flawed poll can change that.
-- The American people will decide on election day whether they want to continue the current direction. They will hold Bush accountable and they will further discredit Gallup.
Originally posted by Nerdling
Kerry got his second wind.
Polls show its back to a tie, the bounce is dead.
We're back. Did you miss us?
Originally posted by Intelearthling
Let may that again. THE LOSING TRACK!
Originally posted by RANT
Originally posted by Intelearthling
Let may that again. THE LOSING TRACK!
Flustered somebody is.
Thought for today:
Without the fertilizer of others, smelling like a Rose yourself wouldn't be so sweet.
[edit on 18-9-2004 by RANT]