Is Nevada the end of the road for Ron Paul? Poor results from - rigging? Apathy? (article)

"The one thing that is on our side is the American people are waking up," Paul told a college auditorium in Rochester, on Saturday.

Waking up and getting out of bed are two different ideas.

“You have to remember that most of the enthusiasm for him comes from the youth,” political strategist Jay Schmidt remarked, “and youth tend to remain Democratic and liberal. Also, youth spells apathy. No amount of money can fix apathy.”

www.examiner.com...

reply to post by Diluted


I think he has to try to lift his game. He isn't the type of man to quit. 3rd isn't bad, but he needs to at least place 2nd to keep the momentum going.

He will run to the end like last time. the race just started, wait til maine and texas....in the meantime everyone needs to remember, he says he is spreading a message, even if he loses, thats what he says,no other candidate had someone write a book about them,, ,just released"The Ron Paul Revolution".........he is about to blow up! There are too many stupid people in this world, combined with missing precints of college towns and media blackouts.......stupid ,naive and hypnotized...........

Is it the end??

Not even close. I will leave my personal opinion out of this reply and simply stick to facts that anyone can look up.

Fact #1. Ron Paul is pulling in better numbers so far than he did in his 2008 Campaign.

Fact #2. Ron Paul stayed in the race in 2008 until June.

So based on those 2 facts alone, we can assume that Paul will remain in this race until at least June. Considering his numbers are improved overall, and (Fact #3) he already has more delegates now than he did total in 2008, it is easy to see how Paul can remain in this race clear up to the Republican National Convention.

So no it is not even close to being over. We have seen primaries and caucuses in 4 states out of 50, there is still a lot more to go before we will actually see a clear front runner.

I have no opinion, at this time, on vote rigging or anything else. I intend to wait for more information to come out about the process in Nevada before I even entertain the thought. I have seen some things that make me curious, but to make such a bold claim at this point is nothing but speculation and suspicion. I'd rather deal with facts.

Ron Paul is "my guy" but not every loss is voter fraud. We have to be realistic here and reality tells us people will vote differently and see things differently than I do. I need evidence before I will ever make such a claim.

Originally posted by daaskapital
reply to post by Diluted

 

I think he has to try to lift his game. He isn't the type of man to quit. 3rd isn't bad, but he needs to at least place 2nd to keep the momentum going.

3rd is bad when there are only 4 people in the running.

Isn't bad? It's freaking terrible.

reply to post by Diluted


His results were poor, even if his goal is now merely to gain delegates to the convention. 18.5%? Nevada held the kind of voters that Paul was targeting in his campaign, Paul spent nearly the same amount in campaign money there as Romney did. Gingrich? He didn't even focus his campaign there and he came second with 26% (Huffpo reporting).

This isn't a good show for Paul again. If this is how he'll perform here and Florida and South Carolina, I fail to see how he expects to make any kind of impact come the convention.

Originally posted by MrWendal
Not even close. I will leave my personal opinion out of this reply and simply stick to facts that anyone can look up.

Fact #1. Ron Paul is pulling in better numbers so far than he did in his 2008 Campaign.

This is true. He virtually tied with Romney and Santorum in Iowa, came a distant second in New Hampshire, but overall his performance has not made him stand out any more than in 2008, his performances in the recent states, South Carolina, Florida and now Nevada are historically normal compared to his previous performances.

I don't know how Paul supporters can continue rationalizing his performances like this if he can't even come second in major battle ground states let alone win. A state where the demographics should favour him. If he continues performing like this, I certainly won't blame the media for giving him less time than the front runners.

Fact #2. Ron Paul stayed in the race in 2008 until June.

And what did this do for him in the long run? I have no doubt that Paul will stay in the race till the convention, but if he continues performing like this, he will come to Tampa with little relevance or influence to make a deal.

We have seen primaries and caucuses in 4 states out of 50,

True. John King was talking about Washington State and how Ron Paul may actually win there, it is still early days, but you cannot deny that his performance so far have been poor. If Gingrich came in the same position as Paul, there would be many calling for him to drop out of the race now.

Originally posted by Southern Guardian
but overall his performance has not made him stand out any more than in 2008, his performances in the recent states, South Carolina, Florida and now Nevada are historically normal compared to his previous performances.

Not really. In both South Carolina and Florida Ron Paul doubled or better his vote total from 2008. Here are the numbers.

2008 South Carolina, Ron Paul 3.7% with a total of 15,773 votes
2012 South Carolina, Ron Paul 13% with a total of 77,993 votes

2008 Florida, Ron Paul 3.2% with a total of 62,887 votes.
2012 Florida, Ron Paul 7% with a total of 117,104 votes

And these are the kind of results we have been seeing in every State that has held a Primary or Caucus. Double and in some cases triple the vote totals from 2008. Feel free to look at New Hampshire and Iowa, you will see much the same thing. Now look at Nevada's totals.

2008 Nevada, Ron Paul 13.7% with a total of 6, 084 votes.
2011 Nevada, (with currently only 43% reporting) Ron Paul 18.5% with a total of 3,043 votes.

I don't know how Paul supporters can continue rationalizing his performances like this if he can't even come second in major battle ground states let alone win. A state where the demographics should favour him. If he continues performing like this, I certainly won't blame the media for giving him less time than the front runners.

Thus far, there is no rationalizing his numbers in Nevada. If there are no reports of fraud, there is no excuse at all. I do know of one County that was turning supporters away, but it is what it is. Numbers don't lie and what we are seeing reported is disheartening. Any way you cut it, the numbers say Paul lost votes and gained none in Nevada when compared to the 2008 Campaign.

And what did this do for him in the long run? I have no doubt that Paul will stay in the race till the convention, but if he continues performing like this, he will come to Tampa with little relevance or influence to make a deal.

That is not entirely accurate. Even CNN was forced to admit that a Candidate can win the Nomination even if he loses every Primary. It is all about the delegates. Currently Iowa has not assigned any delegates to any Candidate. New Hampshire has, South Carolina has, and Florida is being contested by Gingrich who is asking that the delegates be split proportionately. What we are seeing reported in the MSM in regards to the delegate count is false. It is not an accurate count, it is a projection. The MSM projected who got delegates from Florida and Iowa.

John King was talking about Washington State and how Ron Paul may actually win there, it is still early days, but you cannot deny that his performance so far have been poor. If Gingrich came in the same position as Paul, there would be many calling for him to drop out of the race now.

I would not say Paul's performance so far has been poor. I would say his performance in Nevada is poor. I really disliked the interview with Peirs Morgan and I don't think that interview did Paul any favors. I absolutely hated how he addressed the abortion question. That being said, the overall body of results so far I can not call poor. There is only one Candidate I see right now that people will call for to drop out and that is Santorum. I think these next couple Primaries will be make or break for him. If he does not get second or better in the next couple Primaries, his funding will begin to dry up. Ron Paul's funding does not come from the same places as these other Candidates, so he will have more room for bad showings which Nevada is for him.