News and commentary on the Florida Primary - 1/31/2012

So -- the polls are open, and the attacks have been brutal. I'll sticky this thread for today.

USA today has an interesting article on five things to watch in the primary.

And here's their graphic "poll tracker" (national poll-- not Florida's latest)

Gingrich might be going down in numbers, but don't count him out.

The New York Times has the overview and forecast, and says (rightly) that the polls have been highly inconsistent. That makes this race even more interesting.

Thanks Byrd. Have subscribed so I can track it.

Wonder what lies MSM will spin today since the GOP has already stated the penalities Florida will suffer for an early primary election.


By moving up the calendar, Florida will lose half its voting delegates to the national convention, as happened in 2008 when the state advanced its primary to the same Jan. 31 date.

The Republican National Committee voted to "elongate" the 2012 primary season by denying winner-take-all votes in any states that held primaries before April 1.

Joining the chorus of Florida critics this week, Senft, a national committeeman, said the Jan. 31 primary means the Sunshine State "will have little, if any, impact on the delegate count for any candidate.

www.sunshinestatenews.com...

I haven't studied how other countries decide on nominees for political parties (and I know it varies) but if the final tally is close, there's going to be a lot of screaming over that particular move to disenfranchise them of half their votes. One thing IS correct, though -- by voting early, they have less of an impact on the outcome of the race. I think they should have picked "Super Tuesday" instead, but that's just me.

Of course, I think the elections here in Texas should have been left on Super Tuesday and they need to quit monkeying with the redistricting. If you've never lived here and seen our "blue laws" or "liquor laws", lemme tell you that it's just danged peculiar what happens when opposing views of morality get to draw little lines all around your city.

reply to post by OLD HIPPY DUDE


This is the primary reason I think, Ron Paul decided to not waste campaign money of Florida. Their preconceived notion that they Florida is so important, in truth is false.

reply to post by Destinyone


Dr. Paul said he's working for delegates. Florida has 50 the GOP will only allow 25 at the convention, and even though Florida says it's a winner take all the GOP convention will not allow that either. So no matter how the MSM
reports it Floridas primary means little in the delegates real count.

I hate seeing the numbers Romney has. Its an eyesore especially how the MSM is pushing this issue so hard. 50% of all votes Romney dominates come on really? Are you Floridians voting for him because of his looks or what? Blah, I give up on Floridians. Seriously he is just getting votes because of his looks nothing else. Can't wait to see the total afterwards. Its going to be disappointing that the majority of Floridians find Romney to be the top candidate to go up against Obama...He won't beat Obama, you need someone who is more rationalized to go up against Obama...Even if the MSM is just throwing those poll numbers out there it is still boosting Romneys ego and its sickening.

Heres to Nevada and Maine! I am hoping Rick Santorum will drop out soon, not sure if he will though. No debate until the end of the month as well

They are saying Mitt is the winner:

nbcpolitics.msnbc.msn.com...

reply to post by THE_PROFESSIONAL


Of course they did he was already a winner before the damn thing was even televised...Now I have to listen to this jackass make a victory speech.

The interesting thing about this race is that it's a "double digit" win for Romney over Newt. Gingrich expected it, though, saying earlier in the day that he'd be running until June or July. Romney's got 63 delegates, roughly 3 times what Newt has. Romney's super PAC dumped 16 million on the state in ad revenue, which is pretty impressive. Can they keep up the finances?

Hard to say.

Nevada's up next. We'll see who wins there. The fact that the state has a large Mormon population suggests that Romney may have an easy win here. But there's been a lot of surprises this campaign season.

I can't wait to see the final numbers. I have feeling the turnout was significantly lower than the 2008 Primary.

In 2008, there were 1.95 million votes cast.

So far, this year, with 80% of the precincts reporting, there are 1.5 million votes cast.

I could be wrong, I was certainly wrong on my prediction of a Newt win!

With 95% of precincts now reporting, only 1.6M votes.

46.6 Romney
31.8 Newt
13.3 Santorum
7.0 Paul

So, a weak turnout, but a huge Romney victory. Seems like this is how November will turnout also. I believe it will be a weak turnout to support Romney, and a huge win for Obama.

reply to post by getreadyalready


I am wondering if all the negativity turn folks away from participating?

Maybe the change of the primary date as well?

I did watch all four post election speeches, and nothing really to report there other than the impression that all four look to continue their campaigns as we head to the Maine, Nevada caucuses this Saturday...

My guess is that ALL are trying to ride out February and make their decisions after the Mar 6 Super Tuesday results..

Question is, can they last that long?

Romney won Florida in a landslide, fair and square. People seem to resent that, and I don't know why. They look for every conceivable reason why he won. Number of votes cast compared to the last primary? I'll bet the ratio of pro-Romney voters didn't change a bit. Dirty politics and attack ads? Well, not too long ago, Romney was being chastised for being too much of a wimp.

reply to post by OLD HIPPY DUDE


Good to hear. Florida is the last state I want deciding anything about politics.

reply to post by KonquestAbySS


Yeah.. and I thought Florida wasn't going to be announcing any poll numbers before polls closed? Well, I guess they lied about that. This country..

The MSM will give me an aneurysm before I am 30... I am sure of it.