Why the polls you see on TV are not accurate for Ron Paul

I'm sure you've all seen the polls on TV or the Internet saying Ron Paul is at 13% with Romney at 31%, blah blah blah. Well they might be true in a sense, but not entirely. Here's why. Many of the polls you see, including the one below, are conducted using data from "likely REPUBLICAN voters." They key word there is Republicans, meaning Independents and Democrats are not surveyed.

This is important because Ron Paul has a massive 47% support of Independents and even some from Democrats. Adding all those numbers together makes it a much closer race than the polls suggest.



^^^ Notice how it generally says "RV" as in "Republican Voters."

So when you see a poll like the ones above, take it with a grain of salt, because it's only a small part of the full picture for Ron Paul.

Sen. Tom Davis’s full statement of endorsement for Ron Paul follows.

Statement from Sen. Tom Davis

“It’s easy to campaign on lower taxes, less spending and fewer regulations – it’s another thing entirely to stand up for these limited government principles when the entire Washington establishment is aligned against you. Yet for more than three decades Ron Paul has cast thousands of lonely votes in our nation’s capital based on the constitutional principles that this country was founded on – and that the Republican Party has promised to protect. Yet while generations of politicians – including far too many Republicans – were losing their way or caving to the status quo, Ron Paul was standing as a Tea Party of one against a towering wave of red ink.

“2012 marks the fifth consecutive year in which the federal government is going to spend well over $1 trillion in money it doesn’t have. Each and every American taxpayer is now on the hook for $135,000 worth of federal debt – and last year’s debt deal adds another $7 trillion in deficit spending over the coming decade. Meanwhile the U.S. Senate hasn’t passed a budget in nearly 1,000 days.

“I’m endorsing Ron Paul because enough is enough. Despite this wave of unprecedented government spending, our unemployment rate has remained above 8 percent for the last 34 months and 146.4 million Americans – one out of every two people in this country – are now classified as poor or low-income.

“Government activism and government intervention clearly hasn’t fixed our economy – which is why the Republican Party needs a nominee who isn’t wedded to that failed approach. We won’t chart a path to fiscal solvency or victory in November by running toward the failed ideas of the left – we will achieve those victories by returning to the principles that the Republican Party once stood for.

“That is why I am proud to endorse Ron Paul for president.

“Ron Paul’s record matches his rhetoric, his fiscal plan matches the fiscal challenges that our nation is facing and his movement represents the taxpayers whose interests have been ignored in the political process for far too long.

“I’m also endorsing him because unlike what the pundits have led you to believe, he is the candidate who gives the Republican Party the best chance to beat Barack Obama in November.

“We have a choice: We can keep electing candidates who talk about change only during political campaigns as a way to get elected, or we can finally elect a candidate who will walk the walk and make that change a reality – restoring our bottom line, our individual liberties and our national pride in the process.”

reply to post by mossme89


RV = Registered Voter....not Republican Voter.

Here is the link to the latest national poll done by Fox News...it is Republicans, Democrats, and Independents that were polled.

www.foxnews.com...


When they do state polls for an upcoming primary, they just ask if they are going to vote in the primary. If it is a closed primary, they will only included registered Republicans...in open primaries they will include anyone.



Yeah...the polling companies aren't idiots...they have thought all this through. And so yes, the polls are fairly accurate. Trending is what they are best at.

reply to post by OutKast Searcher


And you trust FoxNews?

Ok fine. Then explain to me how on Earth Paul keeps getting 20-25% when he's polling at 10-13%.

Originally posted by beanandginger
Sen. Tom Davis’s full statement of endorsement for Ron Paul follows.

Statement from Sen. Tom Davis

“It’s easy to campaign on lower taxes, less spending and fewer regulations – it’s another thing entirely to stand up for these limited government principles when the entire Washington establishment is aligned against you. Yet for more than three decades Ron Paul has cast thousands of lonely votes in our nation’s capital based on the constitutional principles that this country was founded on – and that the Republican Party has promised to protect. Yet while generations of politicians – including far too many Republicans – were losing their way or caving to the status quo, Ron Paul was standing as a Tea Party of one against a towering wave of red ink.

“2012 marks the fifth consecutive year in which the federal government is going to spend well over $1 trillion in money it doesn’t have. Each and every American taxpayer is now on the hook for $135,000 worth of federal debt – and last year’s debt deal adds another $7 trillion in deficit spending over the coming decade. Meanwhile the U.S. Senate hasn’t passed a budget in nearly 1,000 days.

“I’m endorsing Ron Paul because enough is enough. Despite this wave of unprecedented government spending, our unemployment rate has remained above 8 percent for the last 34 months and 146.4 million Americans – one out of every two people in this country – are now classified as poor or low-income.

“Government activism and government intervention clearly hasn’t fixed our economy – which is why the Republican Party needs a nominee who isn’t wedded to that failed approach. We won’t chart a path to fiscal solvency or victory in November by running toward the failed ideas of the left – we will achieve those victories by returning to the principles that the Republican Party once stood for.

“That is why I am proud to endorse Ron Paul for president.

“Ron Paul’s record matches his rhetoric, his fiscal plan matches the fiscal challenges that our nation is facing and his movement represents the taxpayers whose interests have been ignored in the political process for far too long.

“I’m also endorsing him because unlike what the pundits have led you to believe, he is the candidate who gives the Republican Party the best chance to beat Barack Obama in November.

“We have a choice: We can keep electing candidates who talk about change only during political campaigns as a way to get elected, or we can finally elect a candidate who will walk the walk and make that change a reality – restoring our bottom line, our individual liberties and our national pride in the process.”

Thank you for posting this... This was really nice to read and even deserving of a separate thread here on ATS. I am looking forward to seeing how RP does in SC. Hoping the Huntsman endorsement of Mitt for brains doesn't hurt him too much. Certainly wish I was seeing more on the news today about this endorsement however. I almost feel like Huntsman is dropping out specificly at this time to overshadow this very special moment for RP. I wouldn't put it past TBTB.

reply to post by mossme89


You had the Fox News poll in your image and that is the latest poll done...that is why I used it. I can link all the others, or you can just click them right on that page and it will bring you to the raw data. Each one will show the same thing.

And RV = Registered Voter, LV = Likely Voter, A = All.

In Iowa...Ron Paul was polling in the 20's all of December. Early December was upper 20's, he fell a bit and stayed at around 20-22% up until the caucus. He got 21% in the caucus.

In NH...He polled anywhere between 24 and 17 the month of January....he ended up with 23% in the primary.

Right now Paul is polling at 15% in SC...I'd say he will finish anywhere from 12% to 18% in the primary judging from current numbers.

How are these not accurate??? They all have a margin of error and when they are done over and over by different polling companies using different methodologies....they show a picture of general support and a general trend of that support.


Support your candidate all you want...but don't lie to yourself and don't try to mislead people by giving them false information.