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While Paul’s lead is easily within the margin of error, James McCormick, professor and chair of political science at Iowa State and coordinator of the poll, says the polling found that 51 percent of those naming the libertarian-leaning Texan as their first choice are “definitely” backing him.
The percentage for the next two candidates is much weaker, at 16.1 percent for Romney and 15.2 for Gingrich, McCormick said.
2012 Iowa Republican Caucus
Iowa: Romney 25% Paul 20% Gingrich 17%
Candidate Aug. 16* Nov. 6 Nov. 28 Dec. 5 Dec. 20
Michelle Bachmann 17% 11% 13% 13% 15%
Herman Cain 5% 22% 7% N/A N/A
Newt Gingrich 5% 18% 29% 30% 16%
Jon Huntsman 1% 2% 4% 3% 4%
Ron Paul 8% 11% 11% 14% 19%
Rick Perry 29% 4% 5% 7% 11%
Mitt Romney 15% 15% 13% 16% 18%
Rick Santorum 4% 3% 5% 4% 9%
Uncertain 9% 14% 13% 12% 8%