Bush Leading in Polls, in other news Kerry Leading in Polls

Seems the RNC didnt work out as planned, Kerry holds a 4% lead in polls, In other news, the RNC gave Bush a huge lead in the polls

Yeah, that's they way the polls are going to be rightup to the election. Most polls will have the difference being within the margin of error, with equal numbers of extreme polls cancelling eachother out.

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At this point i don't even feel i can trust the big commercial media companies to give honest polling results. It is sort of like when pharmaceutical companies do there own in house clinical trials, they never tell you all their trials that contradict that one individual trial they reported. It is very suspect. [How many trials/polls did they have to run till they got the results they wanted]. Our entire country is running on skewed economic and partisan agendas all over the place.

Im just looking for a tiny spot of dry clean facts to make my choices from.

On top of which what they did in Florida last election to partisanly and fraudulently cull the polls of 'so-called' felons. [read likely Democrats]
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The newsweek poll is accurate and more recent. They used Princeton. Sample size, method, all acceptable.

I've never heard of that Canadian firm, and even if they're above board I JUST HATE OUTSOURCING so they suck.

First of all, you have no guarantees with a Canadain firm they aren't using convicts, because they do. Right from prison where they set up call centers. That's why it's so much cheaper than US polling firms.

Second of all, try getting people to admit they're voting Bush to an interviewer with a French accent.

And again, not all polls suck! Just the one's I say suck.

Newsweek and Time show him ahead.

...the bottom line is that the President is ahead by 4 to 5 points at this time. That's a significant improvement over the past few weeks, but not a double digit lead.

...Saturday's one-day sample showed a big day for Kerry while all the days surrounding it showed a decent lead for the President.

Man, those voters are really swinging, or maybe it all depends who you ask?

Poll

I never put to much faith in polls. It all depends on how and who asks the questions.

Originally posted by dnnx
Man, those voters are really swinging, or maybe it all depends who you ask?

Polls can be skewed any way the people taking them want
them to go.

Honestly, I think they are worthless.

However, for those that follow them ... G.W. IS ahead in the
polls by an average of 11% (that's what the news said this
morning). Of course, there will be more polls after the debates.
And the only poll that REALLY counts is the one that is taken
on November 2nd.



[edit on 9/7/2004 by FlyersFan]

Originally posted by FlyersFan

Polls can be skewed any way the people taking them want
them to go.

Honestly, I think they are worthless.

However, for those that follow them ... G.W. IS ahead in the
polls by an average of 11%

In the end, it all depends who you ask.
You can skew any poll, or graph, anyway you want.

Yes Bush is ahead, it was expected he would gain a powerful bounce post convention and democratic strategists went on the record to say it would happen.

It falls into a Bounce/Bust scenario. People are so "WOOHOO" of Bush when he's up there on stage in August but by mid-october they've heard 14 versions of the same speech and are wondering "wheres the results".

I know you remember the line about battles and not wars

Bush is up 11 points

YIPPEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!

Among registered voters in the most recent poll, Bush and Kerry were about even -- 49 percent to 48 percent respectively -- with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Considering the margin of error, who's on first, err top, now? Inquiring minds want to know!

More polling fun

Some can try to distort what's out there, but I imagine Bush did experience a pretty nice bounce. Whether people want to admit it or not, a 'happy' convention such as the DNC will not boost one's poll numbers as much as one that is scathing and on the attack as the RNC. Unless Kerry completely flops (no pun intended), I imagine whatever lead Bush has now will probably be his biggest. After weeks of the Swiftboat controversy, and the RNC which was just vicious, I'm surprised the largest lead Bush has is reported to be around 11%. Once that bounce settles down, I imagine you will see a small lead for Bush going into the debates. I believe that's what the elections will come down to anyway -- the debates.

Originally posted by W_HAMILTON
Some can try to distort what's out there, but I imagine Bush did experience a pretty nice bounce.

Not really, seems it was actually smaller than what some are reporting, but then again it all depends who you ask.

And who knows what will happen with Florida, who knows if it will still be there for us after the hurricanes are done with it.

I'm not a Bush supporter, I'm just saying. It wouldn't surprise me if he did come away with a 7%-ish "bounce." Considering the tactics used during the RNC, if he didn't come away with at least that, he should be a little worried. I'm not sure how much more you can tear at someone's character than they already have. Considering most polls had it pretty much even before the RNC, even someone as anti-Bush as me should be able to admit that after the RNC he should have experienced somewhat of a positive bump in polling numbers.

Update

Kerry is on top now
disclaimer

Zogby is that he is the Wall St Journal's house pollster. The WSJ is not some wacko leftist organization whose goal is to make Kerry look good.

264 vs 222

The biweekly Zogby poll of 16 battleground states taken Aug 30 to Sept 3 has now been released. It was taken during the RNC and many people were polled before Bush's acceptance speech, so it does not full reflect the post convention bounce. Neverthless, it is more recent than any other round of battleground state polls. Briefly summarized, it shows that Bush is gaining, but still has a ways to go. He now leads in four states compared to only two states in the Aug. 17-21 poll.