Killer solar flares are physically impossible, says NASA

I found this article from a website today. I thought the timing was interesting in the release of this article. With the rumors of large solar flares in the next couple weeks floating around the interenet and all.

NASA has announced that a killer solar flare is a physical impossibility. The eleven year cycle of high solar activity could do a little damage, like altering the upper atmosphere through solar flares to throw GPS off by a few hundred yards. The outer corona of the sun could even spew particles far into space. These particles could come with electromagnetic fields strong enough to blow a power grid or two, by taking out a transformer. But the sun, they say, despite being powerful enough to be the basis for most of the life on earth for billions of years, does not have enough energy to send out a fireball that will consume the earth.

io9.com...

Now I have no idea whether or not this is true about the large soloar flares destroying the earth, I do notice that they say they can do little damage. I was under the impression that should our power grid go down for a long period of time the damage would be substantial.

Which brings to mind an article from national geographic earlier this year called "What if the Biggest Solar Storm on record happened today?"

But the big fear is what might happen to the electrical grid, since power surges caused by solar particles could blow out giant transformers. Such transformers can take a long time to replace, especially if hundreds are destroyed at once, said Baker, who is a co-author of a National Research Council report on solar-storm risks.

The eastern half of the U.S. is particularly vulnerable, because the power infrastructure is highly interconnected, so failures could easily cascade like chains of dominoes.

"Imagine large cities without power for a week, a month, or a year," Baker said. "The losses could be $1 to $2 trillion, and the effects could be felt for years."

news.nationalgeographic.com...

Here is the article from NASA

Given a legitimate need to protect Earth from the most intense forms of space weather – great bursts of electromagnetic energy and particles that can sometimes stream from the sun – some people worry that a gigantic "killer solar flare" could hurl enough energy to destroy Earth. Citing the accurate fact that solar activity is currently ramping up in its standard 11-year cycle, there are those who believe that 2012 could be coincident with such a flare.

But this same solar cycle has occurred over millennia. Anyone over the age of 11 has already lived through such a solar maximum with no harm. In addition, the next solar maximum is predicted to occur in late 2013 or early 2014, not 2012.

Most importantly, however, there simply isn't enough energy in the sun to send a killer fireball 93 million miles to destroy Earth.

This is not to say that space weather can't affect our planet. The explosive heat of a solar flare can't make it all the way to our globe, but electromagnetic radiation and energetic particles certainly can. Solar flares can temporarily alter the upper atmosphere creating disruptions with signal transmission from, say, a GPS satellite to Earth causing it to be off by many yards. Another phenomenon produced by the sun could be even more disruptive. Known as a coronal mass ejection (CME), these solar explosions propel bursts of particles and electromagnetic fluctuations into Earth's atmosphere. Those fluctuations could induce electric fluctuations at ground level that could blow out transformers in power grids. The CME's particles can also collide with crucial electronics onboard a satellite and disrupt its systems.

In an increasingly technological world, where almost everyone relies on cell phones and GPS controls not just your in-car map system, but also airplane navigation and the extremely accurate clocks that govern financial transactions, space weather is a serious matter.

There is also a video on the NASA website but I don't know how to put it on here.

www.nasa.gov...

Solar Flare:

A sudden eruption of magnetic energy released on or near the surface of the sun, usually associated with sunspots and accompanied by bursts of electromagnetic radiation and particles. Ultraviolet and x-ray radiation from solar flares often induce electromagnetic disturbances in the earth's atmosphere.

www.answers.com...

Coronal Mass Ejections:

Coronal mass ejections (or CMEs) are huge bubbles of gas threaded with magnetic field lines that are ejected from the Sun over the course of several hours.Coronal Mass Ejections disrupt the flow of the solar wind and produce disturbances that strike the Earth with sometimes catastrophic results

solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov...

It seems that the CME's are what we have to worry about and not the solar flares. Which I know can be a little confusing as I am sure some people think they are the same thing.

Hash tag : #SameThread

I mean there needs to be a section totally devoted to solar flares

You are 100% right. The damage would result from a massive solar flare induced CME which could possibly wipe out global wide communication and power. Imagine being without these things for year(s) It would be total chaos. The strongest reported solar flare was was an x45 in 1859, called the Carrington Effect. It wiped out the telegraph system and started fires. The same flare today would be complete damage, trillions of dollars they project. The commission has a government report on the damage these solar flares and (in their own words) how unprepared they are. It's a good read, if you have the patience and understanding. empcommission.org...

reply to post by ucantcme


I think a clarification could be made that NASA doesn't think the solar flare will directly kill anybody.

However, if a solar flare takes out the grid which they acknowledge is possible, people can die from lack of power. Some people are ill-prepared for an extended emergency such as that, especially in northern climates where even people with gas heat have electrically-powered fans to blow the hot air from the gas heater through the duct work.

So a solar flare that takes out the grid could easily kill indirectly when people die from the results of no electricity, like no heat or freezing to death.

Moral of the story: people in cold climates should be prepared for extended periods with no power, like kerosene heaters that don't require electricity and a supply of kerosene, for example.

Originally posted by moondancer811
You are 100% right. The damage would result from a massive solar flare induced CME which could possibly wipe out global wide communication and power. Imagine being without these things for year(s) It would be total chaos. The strongest reported solar flare was was an x45 in 1859, called the Carrington Effect. It wiped out the telegraph system and started fires. The same flare today would be complete damage, trillions of dollars they project. The commission has a government report on the damage these solar flares and (in their own words) how unprepared they are. It's a good read, if you have the patience and understanding. empcommission.org...

edit on 11-11-2011 by moondancer811 because: *edited for spelling

The link you posted doesn't work for me unfortunately.

What I am curious about is the change in date for our solar peak. It says at the NASA link that it happens in 2014 but I remember reading something from NASA like a year ago or more that said it happens in 2012. So why did they change it? Or were they worng before?

Originally posted by Arbitrageur
reply to post by ucantcme

 

I think a clarification could be made that NASA doesn't think the solar flare will directly kill anybody.

However, if a solar flare takes out the grid which they acknowledge is possible, people can die from lack of power. Some people are ill-prepared for an extended emergency such as that, especially in northern climates where even people with gas heat have electrically-powered fans to blow the hot air from the gas heater through the duct work.

So a solar flare that takes out the grid could easily kill indirectly when people die from the results of no electricity, like no heat or freezing to death.

Moral of the story: people in cold climates should be prepared for extended periods with no power, like kerosene heaters that don't require electricity and a supply of kerosene, for example.

Yes I agree, I live somewhere that gets very cold in the winter. I just hope I never have to face that situation. Most people are not prepared for long periods with out power. I don't think a lot of them think it is even something to worry about.

Originally posted by ucantcme

Originally posted by moondancer811
You are 100% right. The damage would result from a massive solar flare induced CME which could possibly wipe out global wide communication and power. Imagine being without these things for year(s) It would be total chaos. The strongest reported solar flare was was an x45 in 1859, called the Carrington Effect. It wiped out the telegraph system and started fires. The same flare today would be complete damage, trillions of dollars they project. The commission has a government report on the damage these solar flares and (in their own words) how unprepared they are. It's a good read, if you have the patience and understanding. empcommission.org...

edit on 11-11-2011 by moondancer811 because: *edited for spelling

The link you posted doesn't work for me unfortunately.

What I am curious about is the change in date for our solar peak. It says at the NASA link that it happens in 2014 but I remember reading something from NASA like a year ago or more that said it happens in 2012. So why did they change it? Or were they worng before?

I think the general public believes that it is between 2012-2013. Solar activity was fantastic these past couple of weeks. A sunspot (1339) produced an X class flair and numerous M class flares. We are expected to get a CME earth directed hit today/tomorrow so it'll be interesting to see if anyone gets minor radio problems.

One thing about solar flairs- it's very hard for them to predict them and we never know how big it's going to be. A major flare could happen today just as much as it could in 2013. I personally am so happy we have finally entered the 24th solar cycle, can you tell??

Originally posted by Arbitrageur
reply to post by ucantcme

 

I think a clarification could be made that NASA doesn't think the solar flare will directly kill anybody.

However, if a solar flare takes out the grid which they acknowledge is possible, people can die from lack of power. Some people are ill-prepared for an extended emergency such as that, especially in northern climates where even people with gas heat have electrically-powered fans to blow the hot air from the gas heater through the duct work.

So a solar flare that takes out the grid could easily kill indirectly when people die from the results of no electricity, like no heat or freezing to death.

Moral of the story: people in cold climates should be prepared for extended periods with no power, like kerosene heaters that don't require electricity and a supply of kerosene, for example.

I agree. The east coast USA is very fragile to grids because they are interconnected to each other like a big spider web. It's safe to say we in this part of the world would be without power for a very long time and as far as I have heard there have been no improvements to our grids. I will freeze my butt off since I live in Northern NH so I can't say I am eager for this to happen.

I'm not surprised, this should be the Number #1 Topic of this board, but as per usual whenever the actual scientists tell you the actual science, everyone is mum on the subject. To those who would retort, "Well you're just listening to what the "man" says". If you asked any other scientist knowledgeable on the subject they'd tell you the same thing around the World.

reply to post by Dmonix


Agreed. The OP may have inadvertantly doomed this thread by naming NASA as the source in the title.

So many nutters, er I mean theorists, will just click on by because those lying liars at NASA said anything about anything.

I think they delayed it so we would think we have more time to prepare. I also think if a carrington event happens before the next evolution of our species 1/3 will perish. As mentioned above most are not prepared for a long term outage. But its worse than that, most are not even prepared for a short term outage. I think after 1 summer and winter 2/3's will have died/been killed. At least in your "advanced countries". In the US, the average house has 5 days worth of food and 2 gallons of water (after municipal stops). With all the people who live on their FB, texting and reality tv freezing or sweating and starving things would get interesting "in days, not weeks". I've heard that somewhere before.

No no no we NEED to exaggerate the dangers of what has been going on for billions of years yet we are here and the telegraph wires in the mid 1800's (even though we weren't running communities till after 1900 with electricity) aren't really nearly the same kinds of electrical grid defenses we have today! We can't go on without another Elenin, YU55, 11/11/11 doom thread so lets site things normal people aren't real privy about to get that stupid doom fear back out there, (even though it never comes to fruition), but that doesn't matter because there is always a first time right> !!!

Be afraid, hoard canned foods, dried food, salted meat, (don't forget spices they last long and can make beans taste different), build an underground shelter, (like in the 50's), and don't forget to live your life being afraid for cripes sake, I want ATTENTION!!! I KOW WHAT YOU DON'T, BE AFRAID!!!

Common man, it's all very silly.

Remember toilet paper, soap, and matches are worth more than gold after an apocalypse. ARE YOU READY?

Permian–Triassic extinction event

Almost turned Earth into a dead rock. May have been caused by an cosmic radiation event.

Originally posted by Illustronic
No no no we NEED to exaggerate the dangers of what has been going on for billions of years yet we are here and the telegraph wires in the mid 1800's (even though we weren't running communities till after 1900 with electricity) aren't really nearly the same kinds of electrical grid defenses we have today! We can't go on without another Elenin, YU55, 11/11/11 doom thread so lets site things normal people aren't real privy about to get that stupid doom fear back out there, (even though it never comes to fruition), but that doesn't matter because there is always a first time right> !!!

Be afraid, hoard canned foods, dried food, salted meat, (don't forget spices they last long and can make beans taste different), build an underground shelter, (like in the 50's), and don't forget to live your life being afraid for cripes sake, I want ATTENTION!!! I KOW WHAT YOU DON'T, BE AFRAID!!!

Common man, it's all very silly.

Remember toilet paper, soap, and matches are worth more than gold after an apocalypse. ARE YOU READY?

The new currency will be 12 Ga shells, .22LR bullets, anything antibiotic.

reply to post by tkwasny


You saw the History Channel show. I'm sorry the guy ain't gonna die from a simple cut on the finger, especially while they were drinking alcohol. Not a bad show but stupid details involved in it, like he couldn't find a plant or nothing?!?

In the Civil war they would amputate, and save a life, Jesus! It was a small cut on a finger, that's a reach, a big reach.

Killed the whole premiss of the entire show for me that detail.

Think about how long people have lived without a powergrid.. It wont hurt us to go a while without one. I doubt we will ever see our powergrid get taken down by a CME.


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