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Racism will play in every election, atleast for a long while to come. I don't think it's a just a matter of the skin colour of the candidate, it's also about which party holds best interests for one singal racial group. 91% of blacks voted for Carter in the 1976 elections, 52% of blacks had supported Hillary Clinton in 2007 before she came into the primaries, Bill Clinton carried 86% of the black vote during his elections. It is about interests, and it's not just the blacks.
Outside of race, 80% of gays went democratic in 2008 (although they seem to be leaning republican as of late). It is about what defines a party, what they promote.
Cain's skin colour won't automatically make it a challange for Obama to court the black vote, because if you think this, you're just guilty as the black voters you accuse of being biased and generalizing in their way of thinking.
Do I think if Cain were to win the Republican nomination he'd make a difference to the black vote? No. I think he may manage to gain a piece of the vote, possibly ending up with 84% to Obama, 13% to Cain (1% other) which will not be all that significant. In the end blacks see Cain as just another republican suit and that's that. Alot of blacks tend to get harassed by other blacks for voting Republican as well, which I think is rather low and pathetic, even if some blacks may have reasons for their harassment. The 'R' still doesn't go well with the black community. Many blacks still remember that day when Goldwater defended racial segregation as a decision for the states. Many of the older blacks still do remind their children and grandchildren of what they went through.
Originally posted by mishigas
My question was actually, will being black cost Cain votes from whites, given how Obama turned out to be such a disaster. Think of it in terms of Donovan McNabb.
Good points, but I think Cain may never win the nomination. All things being equal, he will lose because of his skin color before he gets to the final test.
Originally posted by LightersideSounds to me like I might of stepped in some troll bait.
Originally posted by TheWalkingFox
You know Kerry got 88% of the black vote in 2004
Al Gore got 90% of the black vote in 2000
Bill Clinton got 84% of the black vote in 1996, and 83% in 1992.
Dukakis got 89% of the black vote in 1988
Mondale got 91% of the black vote in 1988 (and since Mondale only got 13% of the vote total, it almost looks as if only black people voted for Mondale. Weird!)
Carter got 81% of the black vote in 1980 and 83% of the black vote in 1976
Source
Originally posted by mishigas
My question was actually, will being black cost Cain votes from whites, given how Obama turned out to be such a disaster. Think of it in terms of Donovan McNabb.
That's a very odd question, really. You're basically asking, "Since they're both black, will people think Cain and Obama are the same?"
I think Cain being nuts is more likely to cost him votes. In Republican primaries, there's always going to be the Kleagle Kamp busting their hoods for a whiter, more Aryan nation, but I don't think that faction will get a serious bump. At least, not consciously (there may be people who just subconsciously think a white candidate is a "more serious" candidate, for instance, who aren't actually "racist" - bias and racism are different things, after all)
There's also this weird vibe that the republican party has, that if only they have a black candidate, they'll win the black vote (you evidenced this train of thought in your initial post) and maybe even the liberal weenie vote. The trouble there is, they're judging their potential candidate's value on his skin tone rather than his policies. Basically they think they need a "pet negro" to attract certain demographics, and also that those demographics are so stupid as to vote based solely on skin color. This mentality doesn't actually WORK (for reasons that should be glaringly obvious) but I've still seen it discussed.
However, for these two reasons - the Uncle Ruckus factor and the "pet negro" idea, i can see Cain losing the nomination, but being put forth as the VP candidate on the ticket.
reply to post by mishigas
Nah. I think it was Bill Maher who got it right when he said Cain threw his hat in the ring to sell books and perhaps to curry future favor within his political party.I think if he were really serious he'd be a bit more... prepared.. for questions regarding his stance on different subjects. Instead he babbles like a mindless boob. I was actually embarrassed for the man when they asked him his stance on abortion. His answer was so self contradictory and infused with bs that I think every living thing in a 20 mile radius was temporarily baffled and struck dumb for a good 20 seconds.
So, yeah.. whether the race question helps or hurts the man seems kind of irrelevant to me. He's just too surreal to take seriously.. even for republicans (I hope).
Second, I ask for a simple request for backing up your claims, and you come at me with this "we won't judge you for trolling yet bull[snip]?" Stop being a paranoid delusional. The only reason I asked you to not pull your sources from an "extreme right wing blog" is because it would obviously be a biased source and most likely uncredible for it. Does it really take a damn rocket scientists to figure that out?
Originally posted by mishigas
reply to post by Lighterside
I provided a link, complete with stats, and without the baggage of classifying it, on page 1. From there it is up to you to read it. Mommy isn't here to stir your pablum for you.
Originally posted by mishigasFor the rest of this analyst's opinion, visit the link.
Originally posted by mishigas
I'm asking: since Obama is black, and he screwed up so royally, is this what we can expect from other blacks with similar experience levels? If so, we cannot afford him at this time in our history; we are on the brink of economic disaster as it is. We need a proven leader from solid background.
Since I have no idea why you call Cain "nuts", I can't comment on this.
But there ARE large blocks of voters that vote solely based on skin color. The 2008 election was a glaring example. Polls, exit polls, surveys, YouTube videos all bear this out. To deny it exists is naive.
Veep doesn't really interest me.
Originally posted by mishigas
I'm asking: since Obama is black, and he screwed up so royally, is this what we can expect from other blacks with similar experience levels? If so, we cannot afford him at this time in our history; we are on the brink of economic disaster as it is. We need a proven leader from solid background.
Well, there's two important things you're forgetting.
1) Barack Obama has not "screwed up royally." I'm not sure exactly what you were expecting from him, but considering the package he was dealt - saddled with two hugely expensive and terribly mismanaged wars and a recession when entering office, a legislative sweep from a party that openly declared it's #1 priority was to sabotage every effort he made and ensure his failure, etc, he's done pretty well. He's a little bit of a centrist milquetoast for my personal tastes, but he's definitely no Coolidge or Bush.