Geologist’s Research Estimates Large SoCal Earthquake, professor Nate Onderdonk

Posted: Wednesday, September 28, 2011 3:57 pm
Updated: 2:34 pm, Thu Sep 29, 2011.


www.gazettes.com...

Onderdonk, 37, who teaches at California State University, Long Beach, is an expert when it comes to analyzing how landforms evolve through time and how faults change the landscape.
The professor received a $65,516 grant this year from the U.S. Geological Survey’s Earthquake Hazards Fund to continue his research and study the fault history of the San Jacinto Fault Zone, which he said is one of the state’s most seismically active areas and poses and threat to the Inland Empire.

“One of the main goals is to look for patterns — if there is a pattern, what is that pattern,” he explained. “So far, we’ve been able to document the timing of the last seven large earthquakes (larger than a 6.5 on the Richter scale), large enough to break the earth’s surface.

“The timing between these last seven earthquakes has always been between 160 and 200 years. And so on average, there should be one large earthquake every 180 years … We estimate the last major earthquake was around 1800, so that was about 200 years ago, and if this pattern is consistent then we should be expecting another large earthquake.”

“Most of this work can be used to estimate the amount of shaking that new buildings or bridges and power stations and things like that need to account for and what the probability of an earthquake is,” he said. “This keeps us aware of the possibilities, and reminds us that earthquakes are a natural, inevitable cycle.”

“People sometimes ask me if a large earthquake could cause part of California to break off and fall into the ocean,” he said. “It’s a myth — we are on a continent that is not floating, but solid rock all the way down. We could not be separated in one earthquake, although new waterways might be created.”

“Most people have driven along a fault and not realized it,” Onderdonk said. “It can take years to find just the right sediment and excavate trenches and have a cross-sectional view of a fault.”

Lots of random thunder in Socal. Weather changed from summer to winter literally in one day. Thunder just shook my home. The earth hath quaked.

am i the only one who laughed at the name "onderdonk"?

im calling it right here right now, october 28'th 6-7 magnitude california.

and that camping guy will claim it was judgement on the gays or something.

There's an interesting article on Extinction Protocol that seems related to this:

Cracks in the ground ignite fears of a landslide in San Pedro California

I know exactly where this location is. It's constantly in need of road repairs as it moves continuously. It's a small branch fault in San Pedro... If this is causing concern perhaps the movement of that fault is the root of this issue.

How hilarious!
Not you,OP,but the paper and the article.
If you look at the comments below the article ,the guy who the story is about makes a comment.

This article is misleading. I never said we could "predict" earthquakes and this is not the focus of my research. The title and sentence that use this term should be changed. We are just trying to look for patterns in the timing of past earthquakes to estimate what time frame we should expect the next large earthquake if a pattern is persistent. -Nate Onderdonk

www.gazettes.com...

Originally posted by kdog1982
How hilarious!
Not you,OP,but the paper and the article.
If you look at the comments below the article ,the guy who the story is about makes a comment.

This article is misleading. I never said we could "predict" earthquakes and this is not the focus of my research. The title and sentence that use this term should be changed. We are just trying to look for patterns in the timing of past earthquakes to estimate what time frame we should expect the next large earthquake if a pattern is persistent. -Nate Onderdonk

www.gazettes.com...

Nice caught ..

I be watching something else ..

Thank you ..

Yep there are a dozen and a half scientists and laymen and women, all tensely expecting the salton sea or Los Angeles to go bump in the night but big time this time...
threads abound here on the possibilities.
I am sure we are overdue for some groundshaking news, but it could be in a lot of other places around the ring of fire too
Also spains hierro island may erupt or quake mega soon...
I wonder if that action could trigger Las palmas to denude herself of half a mountain into the sea at the same time?
I am not sure how proximate they are though part of the same group....
So Cal is a stick of proverbial dtnomite, the longer it sits the bigger the bang.