The Truth about the upcoming crisis in Eastern Mediterranean region.

This September (and particularly towards the end) is expected to be 'warm' to very 'hot' for the Eastern Mediterranean region. Prime Minister Erdoğan and the creator and inspirator of the new Turkish policy (of neo-othomanism), Professor Davutoğlu leads Turkey - one of the main pillars of American foreign policy in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East in the past, to disastrous mistakes and possibly dangerous developments across the region. The main events that have made the Turks literally mad are two:

First: The conflict between Turkey and Israel over the issue of ship Mavi Marmara (May 2010) and the death of nine Turkish citizens by Israeli commando when the Turkish ship tried to break the naval blockade and reach Gaza.
Second and most important reason: The underwater surveys of Israel for potential natural gas on the Cyprus EEZ and especially on the block 12.

Regarding investigations for natural gas on the block 12 of the Cyprus EEZ, allow me to mention some very important factors:

Sea Area – United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea

The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) of 1982, provides, inter alia, clear definitions on the Territorial Sea or Territorial Waters, the Contiguous Zone or boarder zone and the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).

The UN Convention on the Law of the Seas, which was concluded in 1982, in Montego Bay in Jamaica and came into force on 16 November 1994, replaced four older international treaties. On 30th April 1982 in New York, a consensus process was used for the new Convention, during which 130 states voted in favour of the Convention, four voted against and 17 abstained. Among the states that voted against the Convention was Turkey. By the end of 2008, 157 countries ratified the Convention, including Cyprus (12 December 1988) and Greece (1995).

Exclusive Economic Zone

The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea introduced many innovations including the establishment of the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), which starts at the coastal baseline and extends 200 nautical miles out into the sea, perpendicular to the baseline. Article 56 of the Convention defines the rights, the jurisdiction and the duties of the coastal state in the Exclusive Economic Zone. Specifically, the coastal state has sovereign rights for the purpose of exploring and exploiting, conserving and managing the natural resources, whether living or non-living, of the waters superjacent to the seabed and of the seabed and its subsoil. In summary, the coastal state has the right to exploit the natural resources of this zone, as is for example the production of energy from the water, currents and winds. In addition it has the right to establish and use artificial islands, installations and structures. All states have the right to freedom of navigation, freedom of overflight and of laying cables and pipelines, on the provision that they act in the framework of the international law and provided that they do not threaten the security of the coastal state.

Moreover, Article 121 paragraph 2 of the Convention states that all islands have an Exclusive Economic Zone and that the EEZ of an island is determined in accordance with the provisions of the Convention applicable to other land territory.

The inconsistency of Turkey

Turkey did not sign or ratify the UN convention on the Law of the Sea. However, towards the end of 1986, it declared an Exclusive Economic Zone in the Black Sea and concluded an agreement with the Soviet Union concerning states with coasts opposite or adjacent to the coasts of Turkey, using the method of the median line. Later Turkey started talks with Bulgaria and Romania on the same issue and reached an agreement with them, which was similar to the one it concluded with the Soviet Union.
Consequently, whereas Turkey has cooperated with adjacent states in the delimitation of the Exclusive Economic Zone in the Black Sea, which is a closed or semi-closed sea as is the Mediterranean Sea, yet it refuses to do the same in the Mediterranean, even though it has itself created a precedent in the Black Sea.

Turkey’s responsibilities emanating from its EU accession course

The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea was ratified by the European Union (10 December 1998) and consequently constitutes a part of the Acquis Communautaire. All the countries for EU accession, including Turkey, are obliged, at the moment of their accession, to implement the Acquis Communautaire.

Cyprus

On 15 July 1974, the Greek military junta and its Greek Cypriot collaborators carried out a coup against the democratically elected president of Cyprus. Using this criminal act as a pretext, Turkey invaded Cyprus five days later. In a two-phase invasion in July and August, and despite calls by the UN Security Council [Resolution 353 (1974)] and the quick restoration of constitutional order on the island, Turkey occupied 36,2 percent of the sovereign territory of Cyprus.

The “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus” (“TRNC”) has not been recognized by anyone other than Turkey, which exercises virtual control over it. UN Security Council [Resolutions 541 (1983)] and [550 (1984)] categorically condemned this unilateral action, declared it invalid, called for its withdrawal, and called on all UN member-states not to recognize this illegal entity. The EU and other international and regional organizations have adopted similar positions. For all legal and political purposes, the international community recognizes only the Republic of Cyprus created in 1960 and its government, even though the government cannot currently exercise its authority in areas under military occupation by Turkey.

Legal decisions by regional and national courts in Western Europe, in the United States, and in the United Kingdom provide an important independent record of the consequences of Turkey’s 1974 invasion and its continuing occupation of Cyprus. They also affirm the legitimacy of the Republic of Cyprus and of its government. These decisions constitute an important foundation for any future comprehensive settlement of the Cyprus problem.

Agreements between Cyprus, Egypt, Lebanon and Israel on the Delimitation of the EEZ

On 12 December 1988, Cyprus proceeded to the ratification of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. In February 2003 and January 2007, Cyprus signed an Agreement on the Delimitation of the Exclusive Economic Zone with Egypt and Lebanon, respectively. The Agreement is based on the internationally accepted principle of the median line and in accordance with the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. In December 2010, the Agreement on the Delimitation of the EEZ between Cyprus and Israel was signed.

At the same time, Cyprus announced, on 16 February 2007, the 1st Licensing Round Offshore Cyprus for the grant of Hydrocarbon Exploration Licences and subsequent Hydrocarbon Exploitation Licences, which ended on 16 August 2007. A number of companies demonstrated an interest and were provided with the relevant information.

Recent acts of Turkey

A research vessel, belonging to a Norwegian company, sailing under Panama’s flag, which was conducting research in Cyprus’ Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), (27 nautical miles off the island’s north coast) , on behalf of the Republic of Cyprus, was harassed by Turkish warships on 13.11.2008. The Government’s response was immediate. Specifically, President Christofias sent on 14.11.2008 a letter to the UN Secretary-General with which he reported the Turkish provocations. Additionally, the five permanent members of the UN Security Council were informed in Cyprus and in New York and representations were made to the European Union through the President of the European Commission Mr Barroso, as well as through the French President Mr Sarkozy, who presided over the European Union during that semester.

However, Turkey continued its policy. Specifically, on three other occasions, on 19, 21 and 24 November 2008, Turkish warships harassed research vessels, which were conducting oceanographic research in Cyprus’ EEZ, on behalf of the Republic of Cyprus. The above acts were reported in a new letter by President Christofias on 25.11.2008 to the UN Secretary General.

In the light of the start of the process for natural gas exploration in October 2011, the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in a press release on 5 August 2011, provokes once again, by alleging that the activities and the agreements signed by the Republic of Cyprus for the exploration of its natural resources are contrary to the international law, and they cause problems to the process of the direct negotiations. Moreover, in the press release, the Turkish MFA supports that the Republic of Cyprus does not have the right to take actions and sign agreements, and calls on the international community to act responsibly and not to encourage these activities. In his written statement (7 August 2011), the Government Spokesman Mr Stefanos Stefanou characterized the statements of the Turkish Ministry condemnable, stressing at the same time that the Republic of Cyprus has the sovereign right to exploit its natural resources and this is what it does in the framework of the international law and the international legality.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan went a step further on September 8 2011 in an interview with Al Jazeera saying “You know that Israel has begun to declare that it has the right to act in exclusive economic areas in the Mediterranean,”

“You will see that it will not be the owner of this right, because Turkey, as a guarantor of the Turkish republic of north Cyprus, has taken steps in the area, and it will be decisive and holding fast to the right to monitor international waters in the east Mediterranean,” (????)

Facts

• On October 1 2011 Cyprus will begin drilling for hydrocarbons in an offshore field in its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) south-east of Cyprus, known as Block 12.

• Drillings will be conducted by (production-sharing contract) the American company Noble Energy and Israeli Delek, involving the Avner Oil and Gas Ltd. US-Israeli partnership interests.

• According to the US Geological Survey, the Levant Basin, an area which includes the coastal areas near Cyprus, Israel, Lebanon and Syria, holds an estimated 120 trillion cubic feet of undiscovered, recoverable natural gas.

• The U.S., with clear statements made it clear that (as always) they will protect the interests of U.S. companies and will not allow anyone with any way to harm U.S. interests.

• Russia has taken a position in favor of Cyprus, providing cover and added that it is the right of every nation for the exploration and exploitation of hydrocarbons within its own EEZ.

• Israel gave assurances that it will support and protect by all means surveys and drilling. Already Israeli UAV are flying over and patrol 24/7 the area of exploration.

• Statements of support from EU for Cyprus and especially from England.

First, welcome to the forums(fora?). Great first post.

So Turkey condemns Israel's actions in palestine, but does the same thing in Cyprus. You gotta love the hypocrisy. Now, where are all the anti-Israeli protestors? Why are they not up in arms over Cyprus? Hmmmm.... I know there has to be a reason, I am sure it will come to me

sounds like turkeys unhappy that its not getting the oil/gas rights and is playing the mardy child to try and get given something as a way of shutting it up but since the mrs was born on cyprus during the turkish invasion i've got no love for the turkish forces especially for what they did to the general greek cypriot population if caught....

Great First Post Sephi! Very detailed, and to the point.
So Turkey claims part of an Island that is not theirs, and fillets Israel for doing the same? Double standard. Its all about the Oil and Gas? or something more? turkey with a 1 million + man army just waiting in the wings now begins to flex its muscle. But Israel possesses weapons far more advanced than Turkey.
I fear soon there will be a war in the middle east. In a case like this, there can really be no winners. Indeed when it comes to war there never is a clear winner, because all sides suffer greatly.
Once again...Good Post
DH

Turkey is a great danger to Europe. I wonder how many people realize that. With years of "infiltration" of Turkish nationalists and immigrants the cities can easily be turned into war grounds. They have been waiting forever to be admitted into Europe and seeing Greece collapse will be the seal for their admittance to be rejected.

I can only imagine how easy this can escalate within days if "desired". On the other side I sort of hope that they will harass Israel a little more.

And welcome to ATS

Great first post! What I find quite questionable actually is if Turkey will go at this alone? We all know they have been making more friends in the Middle East since the rise of a more religiously oriented regime, such as befriending Iran to a certain degree. I wonder if Turkey decides to break from her NATO allies on this, which if she decided to act militarily would be required to, if Erdogan would seek the help of a new regime in Egypt which will hold elections later this month. The Muslim Brotherhood is expecting to sweep the elections and create a new government, so would it be feasible that Turkey would wait for that and seek their help? That would be a worst case scenario.

Easily the new Egyptian regime could be tempted into siding with Israel for many reason; 1) promise of oil sharing with Turkey, 2) it would be a war against Israel, and 3) a war always consolidates a regime. Does anyone know if Erdogan and the Hezbollah government in Lebanon are friendly with each other? I could easily see Turkey building up its own coalition, each with a promise of reaping rewards of oil and a war with Israel.

reply to post by no special characters


If the Turkish nationalists in Europe, specifically Austria and Germany, were to side with their motherland I could easily see that turning into a dangerous situation. Germany itself would not even necessarily have to be involved; all that would be needed is for Germany’s allies United Kingdom and France to fight a war with Turkey or even a minor conflict to ignite a response. That is another problem I see with so many Arab/Central Asian immigrants in Europe, we all know wars will only become more frequent in that part of the world pinning the West against them so the more of their people we allow in the more backlash at home will be felt by the ones still in love with their motherland.

What other civilization on earth has ever allowed in vast numbers of people from countries they are fighting against? Not many, if there are any at all.

Welcome....hopefully you dont start as you mean to go on........

just so you know....copy and pasting things is NOT allowed

www.cyprus.gov.cy...
www.cyprus.gov.cy...

Im sure you read the T&C's.....LOL


EDIT: To add additional sources from where this was copied and pasted from

As long as there are people who can think with their brains and not other organs this does not have to go downhill. The simplest solution is to cut the cake among all the nations concerned and make sure that all are interested in this cake not going poof.
Now there is a huge gas field, near Europe - large stable consumer. There are 7 interested nations that can have access to this cake that is worth lots of money and political power. No reason to go for shootout aka Wild West style. I think that creating new organization to protect interests vs competition and consumers and for (God forbid "" ) sharing or at least regulating the profits - this could be of so much benefit to the region - from Turkey/Israel/Cyprus/... to even future Palestine. And EU will have another supplier,outside of Russian energy foreign politics pressure.

Originally posted by sonofliberty1776
First, welcome to the forums(fora?). Great first post.

Originally posted by DavidsHope
Great First Post Sephi! Very detailed, and to the point.

Originally posted by no special characters
welcome to ATS

Originally posted by Misoir
Great first post! What I find quite questionable actually is if Turkey will go at this alone? We all know they have been making more friends in the Middle East since the rise of a more religiously oriented regime, such as befriending Iran to a certain degree. I wonder if Turkey decides to break from her NATO allies on this, which if she decided to act militarily would be required to, if Erdogan would seek the help of a new regime in Egypt which will hold elections later this month. The Muslim Brotherhood is expecting to sweep the elections and create a new government, so would it be feasible that Turkey would wait for that and seek their help? That would be a worst case scenario.

Easily the new Egyptian regime could be tempted into siding with Israel for many reason; 1) promise of oil sharing with Turkey, 2) it would be a war against Israel, and 3) a war always consolidates a regime. Does anyone know if Erdogan and the Hezbollah government in Lebanon are friendly with each other? I could easily see Turkey building up its own coalition, each with a promise of reaping rewards of oil and a war with Israel.

Thank you for your worm welcome.

Originally posted by loves a conspiricy
www.cyprus.gov.cy...
www.cyprus.gov.cy...

Im sure you read the T&C's.....LOL

Let me get this right .. You want from me to write the "Law of Sea" and EEZ from my point of view; Forgive my ignorance but somehow i believe you lost the meaning of my Thread. Which is to give information. Especially for the people that don't know what is really happening in my region and in a small country like Cyprus ..

reply to post by Sephi

Let me get this right .. You want from me to write the "Law of Sea" and EEZ from my point of view; Forgive my ignorance but somehow i believe you lost the meaning of my Thread. Which is to give information. Especially for the people that don't know what is really happening in my region and in a small country like Cyprus ..

Not me...the T&C's dude

I can make 1000 threads a day like yours.....im sure a mod will eventually come in and delete the thread and advise you to read the T&C's

Like i say, anyone can copy and paste a load of text from a website...anyways...cba arguing with you over it

reply to post by Sephi


What he was saying is that you are not allowed to copy and paste your entire OP off of another website. You are only supposed to copy two or three paragraphs and give the source, which you didnt. And another rule is that you arent allowed to start a thread until you reach 20 posts.

It is very clear that you did not read the T&C at all....

Originally posted by loves a conspiricyNot me...the T&C's dude

I can make 1000 threads a day like yours.....im sure a mod will eventually come in and delete the thread and advise you to read the T&C's

Like i say, anyone can copy and paste a load of text from a website...anyways...cba arguing with you over it

Wouldn't be cool to read first my thread and then tell that everything is c/p ? ;o

reply to post by Sephi



90% is C&P

10% i cannot find....so il assume thats also copied and pasted

Welcome again.....just abide by the rules and you will be fine

Originally posted by kennylee
reply to post by Sephi

 

What he was saying is that you are not allowed to copy and paste your entire OP off of another website. You are only supposed to copy two or three paragraphs and give the source, which you didnt. And another rule is that you arent allowed to start a thread until you reach 20 posts.

It is very clear that you did not read the T&C at all....

"We're sorry, but new members with less than 20 posts are not allowed to create new threads outside our Introductions Forum."

Which is here ..Right ? ;o

Originally posted by loves a conspiricy
reply to post by Sephi

 

90% is C&P

10% i cannot find....so il assume thats also copied and pasted

Welcome again.....just abide by the rules and you will be fine

Wow. Thanks .. I assume !

Originally posted by Sephi

"We're sorry, but new members with less than 20 posts are not allowed to create new threads outside our Introductions Forum."

Which is here ..Right ? ;o

And the introductions forum is for.......wait for it........introductions!

Welcome though, just be prepared to be called out if you don't tow the line here.

reply to post by Sephi


Maybe you should read this thread started by a MOD, on the do's and the donts of the Introductions Forum. This should answer your questions..

www.abovetopsecret.com...

My mistake then. Sorry !

reply to post by Sephi


Posting work written by others. **ALL MEMBERS READ**



Hi Sephi, and welcome to the ATS Introductions Forum, this forum is confined to introductions only.

The Introduction Forum is for introductions To tell something about you; not to start a thread about a topic.“Intro threads” that are really “topic threads” will be removed.
Please Review, Welcome to ATS, it’s time to introduce yourself.

You are more than welcome to post a new introduction thread about you, if you wish.

If you feel ATS must be made aware of a story or have an issue please use the complaint feature located in the Member Tools and get the full attention of the entire Staff.


New members can not make New Threads in the regular forums until they attain 20 posts. The only forum that a new member can start a thread in is here, the introductions forum. This forum is for new member to say hello or what ever they like about them selves, it is not a forum for topical subjects sorry.


Twenty well thought out replies are not hard to achieve,(not one liners) some members do it with their intro thread, or alternatively they visit to the Off-Topic Discussions forums. That's the large Blue Tab on the Recent Posts page.

Take your time, if you have any questions you can either ask them in an intro thread, I'm sure someone will reply.

Once you have achieved 20 posts you will then be able to start new threads, and also send & receive PM's (Private Messages) to and from fellow ATS members.

Try our Ask ATS with the search words of your choice.




Thread closed.

Sauron,
Super-Moderator.