The U.S. Dollar about to break out ?

reply to post by MischeviousElf


Another massive move into US govt. debt today. Yield is down to 1.92%. Price is thus definitely at least at 140-year high. The message of this market is clear: Any inflation today must be based on some sort of scam. As for commodities and raw materials, foodstuffs and energy the price of that obviously isn´t based on any natural price discovery mechanisms in the marketplace. It´s just speculation and manipulation. Google goldman sachs warehouse business. It´s bound to collapse. Most of this doomsaying, comets, asteroids and other extinction level events propaganda originates with Wall Street. It´s designed to propagate the myth of shortages in a world that races ahead on a rising wave of technological advances, efficiency increases and general oversupply of everything that money can buy.

In this environment of extremely high price of money cash should generally be preserved in anticipation of falling prices. I think cash will continue parking in US notes and bonds and the dollar. They´ll probably buy the 10-year note down to zero % yield if needed. The 30-year bond maybe down to 1%. If Uncle Sam fails, the financial system of the entire world will go down the crapper. Which means that U.S. will not fail. Warren Buffett says he´ll buy US govt debt at zero%.

Originally posted by galdur

Most of this doomsaying, comets, asteroids and other extinction level events propaganda originates with Wall Street. It´s designed to propagate the myth of shortages in a world that races ahead on a rising wave of technological advances, efficiency increases and general oversupply of everything that money can buy.

Now this is a conspiracy in itself! This speculation deserves a thread of it's own. If these doomsday agendas are a ploy of distraction coming from wall street we really should be investigating that aspect!

Originally posted by galdur
If Uncle Sam fails, the financial system of the entire world will go down the crapper. Which means that U.S. will not fail..

Huh? Can you explain how it would not be a failure for the US corporation if the world's entire financial system goes down? Is there an ace in the hole?

reply to post by Alethea


Well, my point is that if Uncle Sam goes down the entire system will follow. It´s an impossible, intolerable outcome, so it obviously won´t happen. Just watch them keep buying US govt. debt down to zero % yield. It´s the mommy of all too big to fail situations. As for the end of the world and mad max and all that - won´t happen. It´s all scaremongering hype, nothing else.

I mean, come on folks, after all the years years of Dr. Doom and co. predicting the demise of the dollar and the always imminent collapse of the financial system - here we are in the year of the Lord 2011 with the price of money (debt) at a 150-year high. It´s a matter of historical record. It has to tell you something.

Now, let´s have a brief recap on the forces and agendas that have mainly influenced the trade in the U.S. dollar - the big dog that the world virtually revolves around.

A lower dollar benefits DOW multinationals. This results in more dollars to book home in the US, thus inflating revenue and profits, resulting in rising stock prices. This very archaic and obsolete 30-company index then leads the rest of the stock market, indeed world stock markets.

A lower dollar also benefits commodities whose price is denominated in dollar. Since most of these commodities are produced and extracted outside of the US, a falling dollar leads to increasing production costs in local currencies, thus resulting in demand for more dollars to meet those costs.

So, you see the obvious and gigantic agendas for keeping the dollar down. All the while this play has been increasing economic input costs into the US economy, which is very heavily dependent upon imports and consumer spending. At some point this mess got too one-sided and was forced to reverse which is what I´ve been trying to communicate on this thread. Markets will always correct themselves eventually and they have no incentive at all for self-destruction. They will always be right in the end because they will after all always be there no matter how many of us individuals pass on.

reply to post by galdur


You Said:

... As for commodities and raw materials, foodstuffs and energy the price of that obviously isn´t based on any natural price discovery mechanisms in the marketplace. It´s just speculation and manipulation.[...]

Exactly what is going on with the equities and the Forex....


sheeze... why do i bother?
you all think you got the tiger-by-the-tail... with all that phoney-baloney 'Structured trades' and analyzing the market fundamentals... Yo ! its a crap shoot powered by the HFTs and the wanna-be gamblers....


~shaking-my-head~


the post by you directly above this one...is my case in point--- you are descending into the pit of point-counter-point confusion...and thinking too much (sophistry)... not everything is a 10 move ahead chess move--- the dynamics are being driven by gamblers with the only rational of making micro-dollars per trade... they have no care or responsible thought for God, Home, Country

So, the market will most likely try to establish some sort of equilibrium between economies to hold water. In my view US and Germany are the most important immediate players and so it´s likely that the market will continue deferring inflation to a falling Euro in the interests of the German export machine while bidding up the dollar to bolster the US import and consumer spending dependent market. As for China and the rest of Asia, these are still minor players among the giants. They should focus on developing their internal markets first an foremost for the moment and not disturb the market corrections in the old west.

reply to post by St Udio


Well, I think most people tend to suffer from attention deficit and therefore fail to recognize the gigantic ongoing historical waves. My argument is that we´re in a rising tsunami of technological advances, incredible oversupply of everything, stupendous overcapacity and an absolutely endless supply of cheap labor.All of this is extremely deflationary and will continue to be which of course is by now reflected in the fact that the price of money (debt) is at a 150-year high.The scam of the scarcity of that which money can buy is hopefully crumbling.

Interesting move in the dollar. In my opinion the market is trying to establish equilibrium between the two big dogs - US and Germany -. It makes sense to take down the cost of the import dependent US economy by bidding up the dollar, while helping Germany´s export machine by taking down the euro. China and Asia are junior partners in this game of old dogs, they need to focus on building up their own internal economies and consumption.Regards, galdur.

Don´t recall if I remembered mentioned it, but Dollar rallies off cyclical lows have tended to be quite violent.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/5a62800d1226.jpg[/atsimg]

Well, it´s official - the price of US govt. debt is at a 200-year high. Yield of the 10-year note is at 1.91%.

Those morons in DC seem totally clueless. In their shoes I´d simply send the 50 million lowest income families 500 billion to a 1 trillion over the next 24-36 months. It´s clearly totally risk-free for the federal govt and of great benefit to the populace and businesses.. The debt would be bought all the way down to zero %. I´d be reelected by 80% for sure.

“The SNB will enforce this minimum rate with the utmost determination and is prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities.”

www.snb.ch...

Hildebrand Statement

www.snb.ch...

“The currency wars are heating up”

Switzerland move threatens currency war

“The minimim floor is a copy of the bank’s desperate strategy - after all else failed - in October 1978. It did stabilize the franc at that time but at a very high cost.”