Hurricane Charley's sharp turn baffles scientists

An article from New Scientist reports that:

A last-minute swerve to the right by Hurricane Charley which devastated the coastal Florida town of Punta Gorda over the weekend, has baffled experts. Source

They offer no speculation as the to the cause.

There is a thread mentioning HAARP as a possible explanation: here

Could the jet-stream have had something to do with it?

I had some questions about hurricanes and the jet-stream in another thread but they never got answered so I will repost them here:

"...I was looking at the jet-stream it was looped all the way down into the southern US (almost to Florida). No doubt pulled south by Charley.

My questions are this:

What happens if the jet links up with a hurricane?
Does it suck all that moisture into the north?
Do the wind speeds add up?
are they even in the same direction?
Has this ever happened?

Has the jet ever been pulled down south enough that the top of the loop pinches together breaking off a VERY large circular air stream?

Now that would this set off some nasty weather! "

EDIT: Link

[edit on 8/17/2004 by Gools]

As I stated in another thread...I lived through Donna as a small child back home (Daytona Bch). It was a cat. 5 she did the exact same thing....they thought it would miss us, then turned around and hit hard....very odd

The hurricane was deflected by Coast to Coast radio listeners as part of a consciousness experiment after someone called in and requested the help.

Originally posted by groingrinder
The hurricane was deflected by Coast to Coast radio listeners as part of a consciousness experiment after someone called in and requested the help.

Yeah! Don't hit us please! Hit our neighbors 70 miles to the south.

Seriously though. Can anyone who knows something about meteorology (?) answer my jet-stream questions?

In my opinion, the jet stream might have had a little to do with the direction change, but probably only a limited amount. The bad part about studying weather is that you often need to enter the realm of Chaos Mechanics to determine probable outcomes of atmospheric patterns.

Huh?

Basically, you need a system of objects that run into each other and watch how they react. Because most of hurricane data is collected while the hurricanes are still over the oceans, I'd think that a scientific answer would be difficult to come by. Water temperatures, pollutants, jet streams, colliding weather/pressure fronts, and a number of other possible problems would all need to be factored in to get the idea of how or why such a shift would occur.

Think of a top (little spinny thing). Now spin that top. If you know anything about a top, the slightest touch can send it flying off in a somewhat predictable direction. If a jet stream was the equivalent of your finger, then you would most likely see a direction change. As to whether this example is even relavent, that's up to science to determine.

If you ask me, I'm more confused as to why it continued up the coastline after it turned back towards Florida.

[edit on 18-8-2004 by Protector]

Originally posted by Gools
My questions are this:

What happens if the jet links up with a hurricane?
Does it suck all that moisture into the north?
Do the wind speeds add up?
are they even in the same direction?
Has this ever happened?

Has the jet ever been pulled down south enough that the top of the loop pinches together breaking off a VERY large circular air stream?

Now that would this set off some nasty weather!

If the jet stream dips far enough south to affect an hurricane, that would mean there's a pretty strong cold front or low pressure system ahead of the dip. That's a hurricane killer. Hurricanes thrive under areas of high pressure, a strong enough cold front would begin to shear the hurricane apart weakening it not making it stronger.

Winds ahead of any dip in the jet stream usually come from the south to southwest (here in the northern hemi), winds behind it from the north to northwest. As a hurricane approches any dip it'll follow which way the wind is blowing. That's how forcasters were able to predict that Charley would turn to the northeast. The upper level winds were blowing that way (coming up from the southwest).
As for the unexpected turn...well, winds relaxed (plus the water is very warm) causing Charley to strengthen even more and when hurricanes get that strong, usually they are in control and do whatever they want to do.

Originally posted by Gools

Originally posted by groingrinder
The hurricane was deflected by Coast to Coast radio listeners as part of a consciousness experiment after someone called in and requested the help.

Yeah! Don't hit us please! Hit our neighbors 70 miles to the south.

Seriously though. Can anyone who knows something about meteorology (?) answer my jet-stream questions?

You seem to have too many answers for somebody with so many questions.

When the Sunshine Skyway collapsed, there were pilings and very large 'bumpers' installed on either side of the bridge in the entrance to Tampa Bay. It was stated that this was done to protect the bridge. Well, There has always been speculation that they contain 'missles' to protect none other than CENTCOM and SOCOM at Macdill AFB if a uclear attack occured.

Maybe they were not missles but another local Lockheed/Martin project and they turned on the "Thermo-nuclear Bad Weather Directing Devices" that are actually installed under the bridge to protect themselves. At least we would know the gov't is not influenced by Disney sicne they go smacked!!!

the above is for amusement only, except for the missle part...

Originally posted by esdad71
When the Sunshine Skyway collapsed, there were pilings and very large 'bumpers' installed on either side of the bridge in the entrance to Tampa Bay. It was stated that this was done to protect the bridge. Well, There has always been speculation that they contain 'missles' to protect none other than CENTCOM and SOCOM at Macdill AFB if a uclear attack occured.

...

the above is for amusement only, except for the missle part...

I have snorkled around those pilings while tied up there. It's a great grouper and blacktip and sheepshead spot. There are wooden planks (2x8 I believe) vertically strung around the concrete bumper. We have climbed to the tops of these and jumped off as well. They are solid concrete with no appearance of any silo door whatsoever. We were never approached by any law enforcement official whatsoever for tying up there. Countless other boats have as well because you can see the nicks in the wood from anchor lines as well as boats being pushed into the pilings from swells.

Anyone interested in snorkeling that area to confirm what I said -- have dive knife or spear ready, the blacktips like that area due to the currents. Also, the most productive one I found is on the SE side of the bridge just outside the channel. Cast to the piling for 1-2# sheepshead and turn around cast down alongside the rock banks (bridge piling) for grouper. You can sight cast to the blacktips on busy days.

i too have fished there. as said, it was a joke, an urban legend if you will...and i would look out for "Ol Hitler", the Jaws-sized hammerhead and his cousins beneath the black tips though. However, would you advertise your protection...hmmm....

PS.I think we got very lucky to miss Charlie....

Originally posted by esdad71
the above is for amusement only, except for the missle part...

Oops, took you literally then. Ol Hitler (or what the bait guys said was Ol Hitler) was hooked one night while I was bridge fishing the skyway south pier, about 50 feet from the end. He got away but I did see a nine foot tiger shark brought over the rail. The guy who landed him was a friggin idiot -- all that work and stress on the shark for a photo opp. Would you believe he crouched right behind his head? You should have seen the poor bastard after he was lifted back over. He was stunned for several minutes, swimming in circles among the pilings. Now that qualifies for WQYK-99's afternoon drive stupid stupid stupid bit.

You were very lucky in Tampa. I moved north two years ago to live my next 30 years in upstate NY, before retiring back to the south in the future. Just like Miami was lucky with Andrew.

PS.I think we got very lucky to miss Charlie....

I agree... As I said in another thread...I feel like someone I don't even know took a bullet for me. That thing was dead on to hit us, but seems our supernatural storm shield held up...

Originally posted by Gazrok

PS.I think we got very lucky to miss Charlie....

I agree... As I said in another thread...I feel like someone I don't even know took a bullet for me. That thing was dead on to hit us, but seems our supernatural storm shield held up...

We, the listeners of COAST TO COAST RADIO were only too glad to help.

So If I understand the answers correctly, the jet and a hurricane would repel each other like magnets.

There is no possibility of the two "blending" in any way or the hurricane "crossing" the jetstream?

I think the jet is the flow of prevailing winds caused by the earth's rotation and that it forms loops when it runs into weather systems? So do low/high pressure systems affect the jet or vice versa? Maybe an equilibrium of the two?

The bottom line is no matter how we can plot, track, forcast,predict or prepare, any wind change or movement can effect the path at any given moment as was shown. The Gulf stream acted like a bumper to push the storm in the track it took. Now, there are plenty of times that a Hurricane will pass through or over the Jet stream, it depends on how strong it is at the time. Otherwise, Texas and such states in the Gulf would never be hit.

We got real lucky. When you see the devastation to the barrier islands you msut remember not many people live out there and it is still pretty untouched. St Petes shoreline would have been gone, and this easily would have surpassed Andrew in cost of rebuilding. I have seen the damage from 'no-name' stroms as we call them, and they are nothing compared to a Category 4 storm.

Just wished it could have washed away Disney