Ever heard of The J.O.E.? The read is well worth your time.

In the interest of our future and the direction in which our political leader will choose to steer us very little insight is given to the broad public. Often lead to one way of thinking or another by politically biased media sources a clear understanding of important issues regarding our freedoms, security, economic wellbeing and international influences become muddied up by the back and forth charades of a two party system. Throughout all of this the United States Joint Forces Command periodically attempts to blaze a path in hopes of given a clear view of where we are and where we are going.

The USJFC issues a report called The J.O.E. (Joint Operations Environment) which attempts to offer an in depth review of key strategic issues which face, not just the United States, but the entire world from military standpoint over the next 25 years. The J.O.E. ranges in topics from “Trends Influencing the World’s Security” to “The “Contextual World” to “Implications for the Joint Forces” and “Future Opportunities”. Each section outlines key break downs of global statistics, current and future trends, and gives an overall sense of direction.

Regardless of the author’s position, the overall intentions of the report or your own opinion and interpretation of its contents, the 76 pages contained within it are well worth the time and effort. I encourage each of you to, at the very least, skim through it while focusing on the issues that are important to you.

I will, at this time, provide some brief excerpts from areas that I’ve found to be particularly interesting.

Demographics:

In total, the world will add approximately 60 million people each year and reach a total of 8 billion by the 2030s. Ninety-five percent of that increase will occur in developing countries. The more important point is that the world’s troubles will occur not only in the areas of abject poverty but also, to an even greater extent, in developing countries where the combination of demographics and economy permits populations to grow, but makes meeting rising expectations difficult.

Globalization:

In a globalized world of great nations, the United States may not always have to take the lead in handling the regional troubles that will arise. By the 2030s, every region of the world will likely contain local economic powers or regional organizations capable of leadership. In any case, the United States will often find it prudent to play a cooperative or supporting role in military operations around the world and will almost certainly provide support in organizing or convening global coalitions for some time to come.

Economics:

Domestically, the future of the U.S. financial picture in both the short and long term is one of chronic budget deficits and compounding debt. The federal deficit for the 2009 fiscal year was about $1.42 trillion or one tenth of U.S. economic production in that year. For the first two months of the 2010 fiscal year, the cumulative deficit was already higher than any previous total yearly deficit run by the federal government and even the most optimistic economic projections suggest that the U.S. will add $9 trillion to the debt over the next decade, outstripping even the most optimistic predictions for economic growth upon which the federal government relies for increased tax revenue.

Energy:

To meet even the conservative growth rates posited in the economics section, global energy production would need to rise by 1.3% per year. By the 2030s, demand is estimated to be nearly 50% greater than today. To meet that demand, even assuming more effective conservation measures, the world would need to add roughly the equivalent of Saudi Arabia’s current energy production every seven years.

Food:

In a world with adequate global supply, but localized food shortages, the real problems will stem from food distribution. How quickly the world reacts to temporary food shortages inflicted by natural disasters will also pose challenges. In such cases, the Joint Force may find itself involved in providing lift, logistics, and occasionally security to those charged with relief operations.

Water:

As we approach the 2030s, the world’s clean water supply will be increasingly at risk. Growing populations and increasing pollution, especially in developing nations, are likely to make water shortages more acute. Most estimates indicate nearly 3 billion (40%) of the world’s population will experience water stress or scarcity. Absent new technology, water scarcity and contamination have human and economic costs that are likely to prevent developing nations from making significant progress in economic growth and poverty reduction.

Climate Change and Natural Disasters:

The impact of climate change, specifically global warming and its potential to cause natural disasters and other harmful phenomena such as rising sea levels, has become a concern. Scientific conclusions about the potential effects of climate change are contradictory, with some arguing that there will be more and greater storms and natural disasters: others, that there will be fewer.

Pandemic:

Even though populations today are much larger and more concentrated, increasing the opportunities for a new pathogen to spread, the fact that mankind lives in a richer world with greater knowledge of the world of microbes, the ability to enact quarantines, a rapid response capability, and medical treatment suggest that authorities could control even the most dangerous of pathogens. The crucial element in any response to a pandemic may be the political will to impose quarantine.

Cyber:

Addressing the cyber threat is no small challenge. Cyber threats will demand new approaches to managing information, securing information systems, and ensuring our ability to operate through attack. As we seek to address the threats from cyberspace, Joint Force personnel must always understand that every networked computer is on the front line. Everyone who logs on is a cyber defender first.

Space:

Moreover, challenges to free access to space are growing. The U.S. relies heavily on space-based assets to observe the operating environment and orient far-flung forces at global distance in highly distributed networks. This dependence creates both advantage and vulnerability.

Technology:

Advances in technology will continue at an exponential pace as they have over the past several decades. Some pundits have voiced worries the United States will lose its lead as the global innovator in technology or that an enemy could make technological leaps that would give it significant advantages militarily. That is possible, but by no means a foregone conclusion.

As our experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan illustrate, the process of integrating robots into the force will occur over time as they become ever-more capable having “some level of autonomy - adjustable autonomy, or supervised autonomy, or full autonomy - within mission bounds.

A special class of nanotechnology, biotechnology, is focused on the manipulation and engineering of the substance of life, including such elements as the genetic code, protein engineering, and artificial life. Biotechnology as a field is now bigger than physics in terms of money spent, scientists employed, and discoveries made

I could go on quoting more areas of interest but I think this is enough to entice you to read it on your own. I would say it's a pretty good outline for what we can expect for our future.

As a foot note, take notice of the multiple Sun Tzu quotes, and never forget, at any point in time while reading this, that it is a military document.

The J.O.E.

reply to post by amaster


Very good read, even with just a casual browsing. India looks like it will be the dealmaker/breaker of this new century. Whichever way India leans will tell if we will have a China Dominated or U.S./ Western Dominated geopolitical landscape.

Goldwater-Nichols Act in 1986


"but the entire world from military standpoint over the next 25 years."

25 years from private to General? is that how long it takes? info i mean,, i know its the military but seems a bit of a long time before u can act on the results,,, isnt it?

try 25 wks and ill read it

The Joint Operating Environment is intended to inform joint concept ... what is changing in the world if we intend to create a military as relevant and ..... Goldwater-Nichols Act in 1986. In terms of capabilities, ...


Goldwater-Nichols Act in 1986
So 25 yrs is up,,, whats the conclusion????

Sorry, hope you don't mind but shared this link with another thread too.
Very interesting read indeed, am at 39 so far.
I think we all forget sometimes the people who are in power think very much into the future too, it's almost heartening in an odd way. Although with a publicly available document, it comes down to reading between the lines too.

s & f for your find

reply to post by pavil


I think India will be a major player in the coming years in terms of money, power and technology, but they need to do something about their overwhelming poverty. Failing infrastructure and overpopulation will be a stumbling block.

China scares me.

reply to post by BobAthome


The J.O.E. is a projection of current and potential trends and influances on a global scale which could impact the United States, and it's securtity. It's an overview of how the Joint Military will need to change and adapt over the next 25 years to effectively handle these expected changes. It's not an end point, but rather an ever evolving guideline.

I really don't see what the Goldwater - Nichols Act has to do with it. All that effected was the chain of command. It has nothing to do with future trends and projectons.

reply to post by AussieAmandaC


Thank you.

I think it helps to put some current issues into perspective, and give a good indication of what our government conciders important areas to keep a watch on. Obviously, coming from the government, and made publicly available, the overall intentions of this can be left to questioning, but regardless, it's still a well put together piece of information.

reply to post by amaster


Excelent find, star and flag for you. Am going to read through JOE here and see what I can find out as well.

Thanks,
Ainge

What an interesting read. I just skimmed it at the moment while stopping at points of interests. I've bookmarked it though and will be sure to give a full read in the very near future.