Only 40% of Taiwanese would vote for independence.

I'm very surprised there are so few people who would vote for independence from China and the number of people who have no opinion on this very important manner is just as surprising.

CPOD
In the event of a referendum on independence, how would you vote?

For independence
40%

For reunification with China
25%

Boycott / Cast invalid ballot
15%

No opinion
21%

The situation seems a bit different than I had previously believed.
I was under the impression that the vast majority of Taiwan's population wanted independence.

Good find but you have to place yourself in the Taiwanese's shoes, you get an anonymous phone call asking how you vote in a referendum, how would you know that this was not an attempt by the Chinese to gather intel on independence seeking Taiwanese?

Look at the "no opinion" percentage of 21% , I don't know if my thoughts are correct but I am throwing it out as something to consider..

I would be surprised as well if this poll is true.

It was conducted by a Taiwanese Cable news network.
I think it is legit.
I don't know the reasons for the high number on 'no opinion' votes though.

If we count the people who chose to boycott, the number would go up to 55%.
A majority but not an overwhelming one.


[edit on 14-8-2004 by AceOfBase]

I'm sure the survey is accurate (more or less). The U.S. has a much greater interest in an independent Taiwan than the Taiwanese themselves.

Here's an excerpt from the latest congressional report on the status of the PLA:

Taiwan�s Will To Fight

Taipei�s military challenges are not lost on Beijing. The island�s apparent lack of political consensus over addressing them with substantially increased defense spending is undoubtedly seen as an encouraging trend in Beijing. If successful, PLA modernization will threaten that Taiwan autonomy by enabling Beijing to launch a devastating standoff attack with insufficient warning time for foreign forces to mobilize and deploy to aid Taiwan. Taiwan�s declining defense spending thus comes at a time when the island�s need to improve its own deterrent options is apparent.

One possible reason for Taiwan�s attitude toward defense spending might be diverging perceptions of economic and military trends in the Taiwan Strait. Even as the PLA steadily fields more ballistic missiles and modern air and naval systems, Taiwan�s need for low-wage labor and China�s seeming unlimited need for investment capital and managerial expertise are concurrently expanding cross-Strait economic interdependence. The several hundred thousand s of Taiwan�s 23 million residents living and working on the mainland are a substantial group with a vested interest in avoiding any cross-Strait tension.

Source: FY04 REPORT TO CONGRESS ON PRC MILITARY POWER (Pursuant to the FY2000 National Defense Authorization Act), ANNUAL REPORT ON THE MILITARY POWER OF THE PEOPLE�S REPUBLIC OF CHINA. P.48

-koji K.