An advanced warning for winter 2011/2012 for the UK. Be prepared!

I life just outside a large city so I'm not to worried about it but for really cold and/or slippery days I have hiking boots type B and C (I used to hike a lot), traction cleats to wear on regular shoes, tights to wear underneath my jeans, lots of undershirts, (ski-)gloves and scarfs and 2 good winter jackets with a fake-fur hood and a winter headband to wear underneath the hood if it isn't enough.
The coldest weather I've been in was -15C/5F, which is extreme for my country, and it's good enough for that.

I also have a lot of blankets in different sizes and thicknesses to safe on heating costs.

Keep in mind travel plans as well. Us yanks going back and forth from the states were in a rare surprise last year when several people I knew spent an unanticipated Christmas in London thanks to Heathrow.
I was stuck in Germany, but that's ( ) how I found ATS.

Cheers

reply to post by fiftyfifty


The weather is getting to be so strange even the Weather Channel meteorologists have been mentioning it. According to them, 2010 was "the deadliest year in a generation".

2010 Deadliest Year In A Generation
www.abovetopsecret.com...

If this winter in Europe is worse than last winter, and I predict it will be, then people should really take your advice to heart. Remember this:

Originally posted by this_is_who_we_are

Arctic weather sparks more chaos
Dec 20 2010
www.dailypost.co.uk...

Temperatures plunged overnight, with a record low for Northern Ireland seen in Castlederg, County Tyrone, where the mercury plunged to minus 17.6C. The lowest UK temperature overnight was thought to be minus 19.6C, recorded in Chesham, Buckinghamshire.

Forecasters have said the UK is experiencing some of the most severe winter weather in a century, with continued sub-zero temperatures and snowfalls of up to 20cm expected on Monday.

"I wouldn't worry though. It's just a couple of flakes. It's just winter as usual. It's not like there's a blizzard hitting much of the northern hemisphere or anything. I mean, people aren't dying from exposure or anything..."

(Insert sarcasm here)
Strange Weather - Is "the day after tomorrow" coming true?
www.abovetopsecret.com...

And the trend seems to be pointing to even more record breaking historic/epic weather.

Originally posted by Misterlondon
reply to post by RUDDD

 

I think people in the UK especially have too much expectation when it comes to the weather. We assume we live in a Mediterranean climate when infact the UK is more at a same latitude as Siberia, Kamchatka, Nova Scotia & Alaska.

we may be near the same latitude.. but you cannot compare the weather extremes between us and those places mentioned...

because of this..

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/8f26721f64c9.jpg[/atsimg]


lowest recorded temperature in the uk.. --27.2 in the scottish highlands..
alaska -80..
siberia. -71.2

That chart however is only for SSTs, it doesn't account for air temperatures for which reversed SSWs which have been the main dominant features of the British winters for the past 2 years. As blocking from dominant highs placed over the UK (1040mb) reverse the westerly Atlantic flow to transitionary Easterlies from the Continent bringing in drier Siberian airmasses. Granted the SSTs from the Atlantic thermohaline circulation does keep heating still relatively abated, but even the thermal dynamics of the SSTs in recent years have shown trending of decline. Pull up any SST chart of the Atlantic and you can see from recent years just how much the Sea Surface Temps (SSTs) have declined.
All of which the combination of declination of SSTs, combined with the transitionary pattern of Easterly flows from Russia/the continent means were seeing a trend in the UK now of increased Winter Cold patterns.

If it gets really cold (dropped to -16c in my garden last winter) then I close the bedroom window at night

It is freezing here this winter,

It is down to about 16 degrees at night. Some nights I have to put a t shirt on...

You think you have got it bad...

I'm already planning the winter tyre purchase. Didn't do too bad last year with the standard road tyres and 4x4 drivetrain, but want that extra assurance and grip that only cold weather tyres, with their specific compounds, can give.
Also started to stock up on cans of soup, beans, dry goods etc, and of course luxury toilet rolls! Can't be facing icy armageddon without some sense of decorum and a pampered bumhole, that just wouldn't do at all!

Next on the list is a small shovel and tow rope for the car and a camping stove in case the power / gas goes off for any reason. I already have enough thermal underwear and winter lined trousers / waterproof gear that I have used for a long time for my regular all-weathers nature / photography walks. And yes, a good pair of wellies - I use Muck Boots, lined neoprene and they are superbly toasty with only a normal pair of socks and flexible.

So, I'm prepared.... bring it on!

People do need to prepare but sadly many don't bother. I remember seeing a news clip last year interviewing people in the street and seeing them complain about the lack of cleared pavements. One guy they stopped and talked to was walking to his local suburban station for the train into the city wearing his business suit and flat bottomed office shoes. Another woman they spoke to was similarly dressed in office wear and 4 inch spiky heels! Seriously, you have to wonder at the mentality of some people - get a freakin' pair of winter boots with some grip!

Reminds me of this. One good thing about H&S in the winter is that its the time when it at least has some common sense, notice in the video the council workers are wearing standard issue winter gear (boots, gloves, hats, thermal wear etc.) Then compare that to the guy 'power-walking' along the iced pavement wearing nothing more than jeans, trainers and a summer fleece.

www.youtube.com...

The Op source is a amateur weather forum, No disrespect but no one can predict the weather 3 months in advance.
We were supposed to have a hot sultry summer in the uk this year, what happened to that?

The cpc charts change from one week to the next so i wont take much notice of that. Winter is supposed to be cold thats why its called winter.

Originally posted by RUDDD
SSW=Sudden Stratospheric Warming is the trend were looking for, the same trend has been prevailant (albeit not dominant) throughout Summer as it was the same 2x Winters the past row. Its the Easterlies from Siberia that gives us the reversed flow feeding in drier-colder continental air from the Russian landmass that gives a more stable cold pooling across all of Europe as it has no SSTs (Sea Surface Temperatures) to raise convective inhibition, displacing the airmass as it travels.

This in turn enables the high to establish itself over the UK for weeks at a time, continually keeping the continental air feeding across. Unlike Atlantic-based cold-pools which are just arctic blasts coming from the North that rely upon DAM pooling (known as the freezing layer) to drop to ground layer. If I remember right, I think 526 is when the DAM touches sea-level. Guaranteeing all of the UK some snow-fall from any arctic precipitation.

SSW hasn't occurred over the past 2 years. There have been polar votices that have brought snowy conditions to the UK but there wasn't reversal. As i explained in many other posts last winter, we had a bad winter because of Atmospheric Angular Momentum. This causes the Jest Stream (which usually provides us with out moist mild climate) to shift farther south than normal. With the Jet further south, this allows high pressure to build behind the Jet (which is North of the Jet) and the Low Pressure systems sink further south. This means the moist mild weather associated with the Atlantic is squeezed over Biscay and doesn't hit us. The high pressure north of the Jet Stream is known usually as the Greenland High. Once this become established it can take months for it to break down (which is what happened last November and December, finally broke down over Christmas).

As the Greenland High is sitting in place, this allows another area of High Pressure to form over Scandinavia and Mainland Europe. This effectively means the UK is sandwiched between 2 High Pressures, 1 to the West and 1 to the East. This then allows cold arctic air to flow freely from Siberia over the UK. This cold dry air blows over the North Sea, which is at its warmest point in winter and picks up moisture by the bucket load.

This moisture forms thunder cells with heavy precipitation and leads to "streamers", which are constant showers blowing in off the east coast. This is what happened last winter and could happen again but you CANNOT predict that at this range at all. The polar vortices (sometimes called Polar Lows) will only hit the UK if the blocking effect is taking place over Greenland and Scandinavia. Otherwise they die out or flow over Scandinavia.

The DAM line you refer to is actually 528. This is simply a marker and not an actual certainty. If you see the DAM line of 528 you will notice that the precipitation is usually snowy but not always. You need more than pressure to generate snow. The preferred values are 522 and below for a snow event. 528 is often referred to as marginal. Which basically means sleet on the coasts and snow on the hills.

You will tend to find that a northerly blast (Arctic) will mainly affect the North and West of the UK, streaming down through the midlands with little hitting the North and East and an Easterly will mainly affect the East Coast stretching to about the Midlands again.

Don't over stress yourselves with this forecast. It will be changed 2-3 times between now and October. Prepare yourselves for the worst anyways, you should really do this without a forecast.

RUDDD: Didn't realise you posted a second post above RE SST's. Your right, this has a impact on our weather but recent research has shown that the Sea only accounts for about a 10% influence on weather patterns. You need to look more at the Atmosphere and Sun output.

SSW study from the 2008/2009 Winter, showing the rise in Stratospheric temperatures combined with Easterly flow as mentioned previously.

climate.ncas.ac.uk...

Originally posted by fiftyfifty

Originally posted by sean_uk

- Have a good pair of wellies!

For many years I've kept my legs warm in winter by wearing ladies' tights beneath my trousers. I've never found it embarrassing, as they make perfectly good - and economical - leg warmers. As a Trucker saving money and staying warm are my priorities. In summer I switch to wearing cooler and more hygienic stockings and suspenders.

OK, so make sure I get myself some stockings and wellies - would fishnets be ok?

Throw in a pair of suspenders and you are prepared for anything my friend

Seriously though.... I remember my grandparents talking about 'Long-Johns' ( I think they are just like long pants [the english type of pants])Maybe it's time to bring them back into fashion!

Long johns are awesome. They're thermal underwear and they keep you really, really warm.

Pantyhose work well at keeping your legs warm, too. Here in the US, football players have been known to wear them under their uniforms in winter.

I'm waiting for snowsuits to come back in style.

As a Yank, I don't know why you're complaining about 16 degrees at night. In January here, it's colder than that during the day and goes subzero at night!

I love cold weather. I always sleep better. Won't bother me.