Article Study: American's Are Convinced That Natural Disasters Are Happening More Frequently

Originally posted by sdebunker
reply to post by Curious and Concerned

 

You think maybe houses are built a little better today than in 1925 and 1840, which could of been the result of more deaths in those outbreaks? So, by that fact, we had so many deaths this year would show that the tornadoes this year were stronger considering the scale was changed from the F scale back then to the EF scale used today?

Housing construction has definitely improved since 1840. Not only that, but warnings are far more advanced than in the past. A large tornado will still be very catastrophic though. Those particular tornadoes were just an example to show that there have been large tornadoes in the past. But comparing deaths is not a good way to accurately compare tornadoes, as there are many factors which contribute to deaths. For instance, you could get a year with many very strong tornadoes, but if they don't hit well populated areas, there won't be many deaths.

I don't think the change to the Enhanced Fujita scale would affect the statistics too much. But if anything, it seems to bump up the rating for the more destructive tornadoes compared to the old scale, so the EF scale would be slightly exagerating the trends.

reply to post by Curious and Concerned


First of all, I gave you a F & S, so I am not trying to sour your cereal here. I just want to mention a couple things here. First the chart you are using for tornadoes. If the question is, are tornadoes on the increase, you cant look at a sampling of March-August and just pick out EF3-EF5. You have to pick out all tornadoes for the entire year.

For example, I used 2005 as the most recent low year and showed about 10 EF3-EF5 for the time year time frame. Now with the adjustment to the scale, I counted the F2 tornadoes as EF3's. Why, because the F2 scale was winds of 113-157, the new EF3 scale is 136-165, so 157mph falls into the new scale. Now if we look at the whole year. Technically, the F3 would count as EF4's now but we will just leave that alone, since they lowered the speeds on the EF scale. (Just as a side note, under the new EF scale a EF0 tornado can be 65mph winds, thats it.)

So back to 2005. Used Storm Prediction Center numbers and archived storm reports and the tornado history project, January had (5) EF3, Sept had (13) EF3, Oct had (1) EF3, Nov had (38) EF3 and (1)EF4 and Dec had (1)EF3. So assuming that count was 10, for the year 2005 the total strong tornado count should of been 69 and not 10. So the chart is a little inaccurate. In recent years, tornado's in Oct, Nov, Feb have increased. This chart only shows "tornado season", which there really is no such thing. I am sure, one could take every year with the chart above and do the same thing I did. For 2005 anyway, the chart was off by 59 tornadoes. And that is just the 3-4, and 5's.

Like I said, I am not trying to bust on you, just sharing my view of it. If your going to use tornadoes as an example, about an increase or decrease, include the whole year, thats all I am asking. But thanks for the time and research.

Originally posted by Curious and Concerned

Originally posted by sdebunker
reply to post by Curious and Concerned

 

You think maybe houses are built a little better today than in 1925 and 1840, which could of been the result of more deaths in those outbreaks? So, by that fact, we had so many deaths this year would show that the tornadoes this year were stronger considering the scale was changed from the F scale back then to the EF scale used today?

Housing construction has definitely improved since 1840. Not only that, but warnings are far more advanced than in the past. A large tornado will still be very catastrophic though. Those particular tornadoes were just an example to show that there have been large tornadoes in the past. But comparing deaths is not a good way to accurately compare tornadoes, as there are many factors which contribute to deaths. For instance, you could get a year with many very strong tornadoes, but if they don't hit well populated areas, there won't be many deaths.

I don't think the change to the Enhanced Fujita scale would affect the statistics too much. But if anything, it seems to bump up the rating for the more destructive tornadoes compared to the old scale, so the EF scale would be slightly exagerating the trends.

I would tend to agree with that, since the EF scale is a lowered wind speed that what the old F scale was. So you are right about that. Plus all the people trying to get video now instead of getting to shelter. But some tornadoes, like a few this year, there is just plain and simple nothing you can do.